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Tingle Creek Sandown
33 points @ 7/1 (T) Kauto Stone33 points @ 5/1 (PP) Wishful Thinking
Value Is EverythingWelsh National Chepstow
32 points @ 13/2 (WH) SynchronisedIs Synchronised not going to Leopardstown instead Ginge? I have a vague recollection of reading a quote from either O’Neill or Berry recently suggesting as much.
Thread going well for you anyway. Keep it up!
IC,
has there been a change of plan since Wednesday?
Racing Post reported:
O’Neill said on Wednesday: "I’d say Synchronished would be our number one hope. He is also in the Lexus Chase and if it came up heavy we might run him in that but Plan A is the Welsh National."So IF it came up "heavy" they "might" run in the Lexus. But even if it were heavy, how much chance would you say Synchronised has of winning a Grade 1 (at level weights) over significantly shorter? I’ll also be keeping an eye on what a certain ex-(current) member of this forum (with an ear to the stable) has to say on the matter.
I’d be amazed if they forego the chance of winning what is probably Synchronised best chance of a big win this season. The McManus team is surely intelligent enough to come to the right decision? If they were seriously thinking of going to Ireland, then I’d expect the betfair price to be much bigger than top price with bookmakers, it isn’t (yet).
Synchronised’s run behind Dynaste was his best hurdles effort to date and is still relatively unexposed at extreme trips over bigger obstacles. Long distances probably don’t put as much pressure on his suspect jumping too.
So even with the chance of Synchronised going elsewhere IC, I think 13/2 makes it worth the risk.
Value Is EverythingI wasn’t really sure where I’d seen the quote but it turns out it was this article in the Irish Times:
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2011/1201/1224308415759.html
I must just have glanced at the headline.
Does seem more of a chance of running in Ireland reading that IC, but can’t believe they’d be stupid enough to do it. May be it’s just my racing arrogance. Feel sure Jonjo, Berry and McManus will come around to my position when it matters.
Value Is EverythingTingle Creek Sandown
33 points @ 7/1 (T) Kauto Stone33 points @ 5/1 (PP) Wishful Thinking
Sizing Europe should win this if at his very best, but I’m not convinced he will be. It’s seemed to me as though Sizing Europe jumps better the fewer horses are in front of him. With Dan Breen, Fix The Ribb, Kauto Stone, Tataniano and Wishful Thinking all usually prominent runners, it’s not certain Sizing Europe will be able to get his customary position. Then there’s the run last time. Horses take different time spans to recover, but this was a particularly hard race and I see nothing in Sizing Europe’s record to suggest he’s a quick recoverer. If it’s a gruelling race he hasn’t always found a great deal under pressure. I’d rather oppose him at current price of 7/4. 33% 2/1
Tataniano seemed on reappearance to be fulfilling novice promise. But the race hasn’t worked out. Second, Nomachecki well beaten in a handicap since and third Woolcombe Folly running well below his best next time behind Gauvain. If it became soft/heavy it might be against him. Reported earlier in the week to be Nicholls sole runner, but Kauto Stone now runs. Made just about all on both his good runs (the other at Aintree as a Novice). Whether he’ll be as enthusiastic a jumper if taken on in front, remains to be seen. 20% 4/1
Latter comment also applies to both
Wishful Thinking
and Kauto Stone, but their prices mean it may be worth taking a chance on them. Am convinced Wishful Thinking is top class, whether it is at this trip or further is questionable. Had it not been for his reappearance in the Paddy Power I’d say not. But travelled surprisingly well at the head of affairs there. Ran better than distance beaten suggests, set too strong a pace for his own good and not given a hard race once passed. Very well backed that day which indicates the stable believe he’s capable of improvement this term. Not that he needs to find much on his novice form to figure. Has jumped well from the front on all recent starts and may be he’s best in that role. Might not be able to get his own way, but at 5/1 is worth taking a chance.
20% 4/1
Kauto Stone
might not get his own way either, has tried to make virtually all in his last six starts. Impressive in winning only start for Nicholls at Down Royal on reappearance. Beating Roi Du Mee by 7½ lengths in Grade 2, 2½ mile race. Seemed to have plenty of pace, jumping very well and having a good deal in hand at the line. Needs to improve a good deal on that form, but only five and might be capable of doing so. If it turns in to a test of stamina at the trip it will be in his favour. Raced mainly on soft or heavy ground, but action is not of one who usually needs slow ground. Half brother won this before going on to even better over further. 7/1 is too big to ignore.
17% 5/1
Gauvain took advantage of his rivals poor showing at Cheltenham on reappearance. Led from some way out there, but doesn’t need to. Time wasn’t great and on all other known form looks exposed. Failed to go on last season after winning same race. Unless principles go too fast early, it’s difficult to see him getting involved. 4% 25/1
I’msingingtheblues has come up short in top company before. Won last time out, coming through to pick up the pieces as the front runners came back. Something which looks his best chance of success here. The one most likely to be dropped out here. Often travels well, finds little off the bridle and has seemed temperamental. 2.75% 33/1
Cornas ran well when second to Medermit at Exeter. But with both favourite and second fav failing, it wasn’t as good a race as it seemed beforehand. 2% 50/1
Dan Breen was well backed for a handicap on reappearance, didn’t get his usual prominent position and might have sulked. This won’t be the easiest race to go back to previous tactics. Seemed just below top class as a novice and probably has too much to find. 1% 100/1
Fix The Ribb isn’t good enough even on form of a couple of years ago. First race since injury (and long time off) last time. Didn’t show enough to presume a return to form. Rider usually at pains to lead and probably needs to to show best. Hope being a no hoper, they anchor him out the back. 0.2% 500/1
Value Is EverythingJust seen the 5/1 Wishful Thinking has now gone.
Won’t be long before 7/1 Kauto Stone goes either.Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Kauto Stone doesn’t run unless there’s significant rain.
After final decs are known Reet, it’s non-runner no bet. Also, if it got firmer (where Kauto Stone is far from certain to act on it) 7/1 would not be a good price and I would not want him to run anyway. So it’s actually a good thing Kauto Stone is not a definate runner. Of course there could also be a rule 4 too.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Oh, I knew you’d know, Ginger.
Raced mainly on soft or heavy ground, but action is not of one who usually needs slow ground
Won’t be long before 7/1 Kauto Stone goes either.
Oh, I knew you’d know, Ginger.
Raced mainly on soft or heavy ground, but action is not of one who usually needs slow ground
Won’t be long before 7/1 Kauto Stone goes either.
That’s right Reet.
Still trying to catch me out.
I would not be too concerned if the ground turned out good or good-soft, but wouldn’t want it on the firm side.7/1 has already gone Reet.
Look at the weather forecast, it’s likely to be on the soft side of good. So 7/1 nrnb was a very good bet, which is other people have backed it too and why it it is now best price 6/1.
Value Is Everything2:30 Sandown
23 points each way @ 7/1 (L) Benbane Head
17 points (win) @ 10/1 (PP) Golan WayValue Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
You don’t need my help to make a fool of yourself.
Kauto Stone is sill 7/1 with Betfred according to oddschecker – as it has been all evening.Not according to my oddschecker Reet.
Admittedly it did show 7/1 early evening then 6/1, then back to 7/1. Now it shows 6/1 again. I don’t know if that is what has actually happened or some sort of mistake Reet.
Value Is Everything
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