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That’s it for tonight/main bets, might be back tomorrow morning with some savers IF time allows.
Value Is EverythingNow it’s nrnb…
Betfair Hurdle
23 points @ 14/1 (FD) Claret Cloak* (min 11/1)
23 points @ 14/1 (FD) Court Minstrel* (min 11/13 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Dark Lover
27 points @ 12/1 (L) Swing Bowler* (min 17/2)Part savers:
6 points @ 5/1 (FD) My Tent Or Yours (min 5/1)
4 points @ 11/1 (VC) Cash And Go (min 11/1)Value Is EverythingNow it’s nrnb…
Betfair Hurdle
23 points @ 14/1 (FD) Claret Cloak* (min 11/1)
23 points @ 14/1 (FD) Court Minstrel* (min 11/13 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Dark Lover
27 points @ 12/1 (L) Swing Bowler* (min 17/2)Part savers:
6 points @ 5/1 (FD) My Tent Or Yours (min 5/1)
4 points @ 11/1 (VC) Cash And Go (min 11/1)With Court Minstrel coming out, now full savers, Another:
8 points @ 9/2 (PP) My Tent Or Yours (min 9/2)
4 points @ 9/1 (VC) Cash And Go (min 9/1)Value Is EverythingOne main bet one, one saver and an each way short head second from 5 races Saturday gives a small profit of +54 points.
Value Is EverythingWinner is not one to dismiss from Gold Cup calculations lightly. Improving fast and we know he both acts on good going and around Cheltenham.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Already backed:
31 points @ 8/1 (FD) Long Run (min 13/2)
18 points @ 25/1 (betfair) First Lieutenent (min 16/1)Now:
11 points @ 33/1 (L) Cape Tribulation (min 22/1)18 points @ 20/1 (Betfair) First Lieutenent (£21 available)
Value Is EverythingCheltenham Gold Cup
Already backed:
31 points @ 8/1 (FD) Long Run (min 13/2)
18 points @ 25/1 (betfair) First Lieutenent (min 16/1)Now:
11 points @ 33/1 (L) Cape Tribulation (min 22/1)18 points @ 20/1 (Betfair) First Lieutenent (£21 available)
Getting out of First Lieutenent for the Gold Cup.
With same owner’s Sir Des Champs winning well yesterday and First Lieutenent shortening up for the Ryanair, it’s best to get out now for a small profit on the horse. If he does end up for the Gold Cup can always go in again. If Gigginstown had another horse with a chance in the Ryanair – I’d let it run. Also, with Flemenstar more likely to take in the Champion Chase – Ryanair looks weak and a tempting alternative for connections to possibly win their own race. I have reservations about First Lieutenent’s speed at the shorter trip so the price does not look value to me at this stage.Value Is EverythingRyanair Chase
19 points @ 33/1 (SJ) China Rock* (min 25/1)21 points @ 10/1 (VC) Sizing Europe* (min 17/2)
Value Is EverythingWill be trying to lay China Rock to get at least half of the money back on him, as it looks as if he’ll be going for the Gold Cup now it seems stable companion Flight Lieutenent will be going for this.
With Flemenstar likely to go for the Champion Chase I can see both last year’s one/two ending up in the Ryanair. Ryanair trip likely to suit Sizing Europe more than Finian’s Rainbow, I’ve gone with the 11 year old. Horses tend to stay further with age.
Andrew Lynch is the regular rider for both Flemenstar and Sizing Europe and it may well be connections will want to keep the two horses apart.
Exchange price for Sizing Europe in the Champion is a lot bigger than bookmakers, where as for the Ryanair there is no difference – which suggests the Ryanair is the most likely target.
We know he loves Cheltenham, jumps really well, unbeaten in four starts this season in lesser races, never needing to be at his best. However, there’s every indication this veteran chaser is as good as ever.
Am likely to go in again once nrnb/targets are known.
Value Is EverythingHi Ginger,
To be honest I’ll be slightly surprised if Sizing Europe runs in the Ryanair. I know de Bromhead has hinted a preference for the longer trip but I don’t think Potts will see it that way. I think the owners will want their star horse and former Champion Chaser in a Championship event. As the Gold Cup looks unlikely i think he’ll run in the Queen Mother. Time will tell.
Hi Ginger,
To be honest I’ll be slightly surprised if Sizing Europe runs in the Ryanair. I know de Bromhead has hinted a preference for the longer trip but I don’t think Potts will see it that way. I think the owners will want their star horse and former Champion Chaser in a Championship event. As the Gold Cup looks unlikely i think he’ll run in the Queen Mother. Time will tell.
Ryanair is now supposed to be a "Chmpionship event" THM. Sizing Europe’s form is well established and at 11 years old is not going to improve. Not within 10 lbs of Sprinter Sacre and inferior to Flemenstar too. Most trainers have a form expert to give them advice on their rivals. Queen Mum looks too difficult for Sizing Europe to win this year. With likely runners in the Ryanair… Unless Cue Card or Finian’s Rainbow win impressively at Ascot – Sizing Europe should (imo) start favourite. If an owner is asked whether he wants an outsider’s chance of winning the Champion Chase or a favourite’s chance in the Ryanair – what is he going to choose THM?
Value Is EverythingThat maybe so Ginger but the fact remains that there are some people who do not view it as such. I believe the Potts are such people. You could easily argue that Sizing’s 2 mile form is better than Flemenstar’s (who has done nothing wrong over two miles but has yet to face a top notch 2 miler at his peak). Of course the QM is the harder option: the chances of beating the brilliant Sprinter Sacre are slim, but Sizing was arguably unlucky last year and I believe that Alan Potts like many is not one who sees the Ryanair as a Championship event. I’d say he’d rather his horse be remembered as the horse who gave Sprinter Sacre a race than a Ryanair winner. Like I said, we shall see.
I agree THM, it isn’t a given. I just think 10/1 is worth taking a chance. If Sizing Europe was a certain starter I’d make him around a 4/1 shot, so happy to take a risk with 10/1. It’s not a full bet as yet THM, as said, once nrnb or confirmed for the race I’ll supplement my stake. Am considering the 6/1 with WH to win any race at the festival.
Another positive sign is there’s over £900 waiting at 9.5/1 on betfair, despite 10/1 being available at bookmakers.
Fingers crossed.
Value Is EverythingI was just coming on to tell you about th e6/1 to win any race Ginger, only saw it there now myself! I’ve taken Power’s 7/1 about First Lieutenant winning any race, he’s only 13/2 with them for the Ryanair
Not sure now whether I’ve done the right thing THM.
With Flemenstar doubtful for any race at the Festival it now looks likely Sizing Europe will be second favourite for the Queen Mother. Therefore the chance of Sizing Europe running in the Ryanair may not be as strong as it was earlier today.
Value Is EverythingOne thing that has only just occured to me is: Although my Sizing Europe bet is not a "non-runner no bet", it is with Victor Chandler. So with any ante-post NR at the Festival they give a "free bet" to the same stake on day of race (24 hours) the original bet should’ve run. Next best thing to nrnb.
That offer should come in handy this year, having already got both Fingal Bay and probably Court Minstrel set to be non-runners.
Just got to remember to claim it on the day now, otherwise there is no free bet!
Value Is Everything2013 Grand National
18 points @ 33/1 (b365) Cappa Bleu*24 points @ 20/1 (VC) Teaforthree* (min 16/1)
Value Is Everything
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