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12:40 Cheltenham
Savers first:
17 points @ 7/2 (SJ) Rajdhani Express (min 100/30)
9 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Gullinbursti (min 7/1) (£20 available)Two main bets in this race to come in the morning.
Value Is Everything12:40 Cheltenham
Savers first:
17 points @ 7/2 (SJ) Rajdhani Express (min 100/30)
9 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Gullinbursti (min 7/1) (£20 available)Two main bets in this race to come in the morning.
12 points @ 35/1 (betfair) Sew On Target* (min 25/1) (£19 available)
Value Is Everything2:25 Cheltenham
22 points @ 14/1 (WH) Cape Tribulation* (min 12/1)
21 points @ 10/1 (VC) Hunt Ball* (min 17/2)Saver:
20 points @ 3/1 (betfair) Tidal Bay (min 11/4) (£527 available)14 points @ 16/1 (B365) Quartz De Thaix* (min 12/1)
Value Is Everything12:40 Cheltenham
Savers first:
17 points @ 7/2 (SJ) Rajdhani Express (min 100/30)
9 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Gullinbursti (min 7/1) (£20 available)Two main bets in this race to come in the morning.
12 points @ 35/1 (betfair) Sew On Target* (min 25/1) (£19 available)
36 points @ 9/2 (FD) John’s Spirit* (min 4/1)
Value Is EverythingSpeculative wager:
Stayers (World) Hurdle
8 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Grands Crus (min 25/1) (£8 available)Value Is EverythingAfter a less than promising start it all came good.
12:40 Four horses backed with the 33/1 shot Sew On Target doing best of them in 4th. -74 points.
1:15 Three horses backed with the saver Katenko winning. Improving all the time and proving himself at this shorter trip. Unfortunately my additional bet meant a small loss of -10 points on the race.
1:50 The rank outsider coming out meant just 7 runners turned up so just 3 places in the end. Then jockeys intent on giving Mad Moose a long lead at the start meant Somersby couldn’t hang on for second. Although in truth, I wonder whether Somersby himself wanted to hang on. -28 points.
2:25 Big 30p R4 deduction with Tidal Bay coming out lowered the return somewhat. Even so, got terrific value with Cape Tribulation. Just getting up to beat the old war horse Imperial Commander. My other main bet Hunt Ball ran well for a long way and finished 3rd. May be best suited going back in trip. Winner is not one to dismiss from Gold Cup calculations lightly. Improving fast and we know he both acts on good going and around Cheltenham. +180.6 points.
3:00 Rebecca Curtis has a top novice on her hands in At Fishers Cross, improving with both jumping and standard with every run. Couldn’t understand the difference in price between him and the other two principles. Now been on him last three starts. An Albert Bartlett possibility. The New One also ran really well against better rivals than last time. I’ll be thinking more about the Neptune for Twister’s representitive. Turned out to be my biggest win of the day +236.25 points
3:35 Wanted to be against both Reve De Sivola (inconsistent of late) and Oscar Whiskey (doubtful stayer). Had three big odds outsiders backed each way and got away with the wrong decision. Kentford Grey Lady taking third spot. Reve may still be best when able to lead/race prominently. Hopefully Nick Williams will be in better form come March than has been the case in recent years. Oscar stayed well enough on very soft ground to suggest a World Hurdle on good may see a reversing of the placings; if allowed to take his chance. The Lady ran a cracking race for my local trainer Emma. Will stand a good chance of another place in the Mares Race. +16.8 points.
+321.65 points on the day.
Value Is EverythingYou keep rolling along nicely Ginge, good man.
Not my day today, 3 neck or shorter defeats in a row (IC, TNO and OW), great racing though, whets the appetite for March.
Ouch, unlucky there! Pants indeed.
Albert Bartlett
40 points @ 7/1 (L) At Fishers Cross* (min 6/1)Bit of a risk with AFC also second favourite for the Pertemps, but sure to be hammered for today by the handicapper.
Value Is EverythingWinner is not one to dismiss from Gold Cup calculations lightly. Improving fast and we know he both acts on good going and around Cheltenham.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Already backed:
31 points @ 8/1 (FD) Long Run (min 13/2)
18 points @ 25/1 (betfair) First Lieutenent (min 16/1)Now:
11 points @ 33/1 (L) Cape Tribulation (min 22/1)Value Is EverythingWinner is not one to dismiss from Gold Cup calculations lightly. Improving fast and we know he both acts on good going and around Cheltenham.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Already backed:
31 points @ 8/1 (FD) Long Run (min 13/2)
18 points @ 25/1 (betfair) First Lieutenent (min 16/1)Now:
11 points @ 33/1 (L) Cape Tribulation (min 22/1)Cape Tribulation
really is the e/w bet of the festival at 33/1 Ginge,I’m surprised you are suggesting your army of followers to put him in now as a win only bet………Surprised and dissapointed!
Cape Tribulation
really is the e/w bet of the festival at 33/1 Ginge,I’m surprised you are suggesting your army of followers to put him in now as a win only bet………Surprised and dissapointed!
I know some punters won’t have the confidence to bet win only at big prices Gord.
You prefer to do saver bets by backing your main horses to place Gord. I prefer my savers to be on other horses (considered value) to win. Especially ante-post… If Cape Tribulation does not run or falls, or fails to place, then you will lose both your win bet and saver bet. I will just lose one win bet. You won’t be surprised if I end up having one or two saver bets on others nearer the day of race/when nrnb kicks in.
If I backed Cape Tribulation win and place (then if placed) I’d barely get back what I’d lose on LR and FL. So would not be able to put any more bets on other value selections nearer the off – and still come out in profit. eg If I thought Sir Des Champs was value.
There’s also the fact that if I’d put both win and place bets on both Long Run and First Lieutenent – there’d be little point in backing Cape Tribulation each way if at all.
In my opinion place betting anti-post ties up too much money and I’d rather have a little bit more on the win bet… Unless of course – I am betting against a short priced favourite in which case each way is fine.
Still, we both agree about Cape Tribulation (and FL) being a good bet(/s), that’s the main thing Gord.
Value Is EverythingIt is difficult to give Cape Tribulation a rating on Saturday’s performance and to some extent must be an educated guess. No other horse ran "to form". Hunt Ball palpably did not stay and all the other runners (including Imperial Commander) well below form. I am not a great times expert, so have rated Cape Tribulation on Hunt Ball and the way they were moving three out. Going equally as well and considering Jefferson’s Airship is more of a stayer – In my opinion can be rated as better than Burke’s Prolific; especially as the winner gave 3 lbs. A horse around 6 lbs better than Hunt Ball still leaves plenty to find to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup. But has had just 9 chase starts and (more’s to the point) only this season (just two runs) been enjoying the larger obstacles; where his jumping has improved enormously. We know he acts well at Cheltenham/in Spring and on both good and heavy… With a possibility given last year’s Festival win and his action – of better to come on a sounder surface. There’s no knowing where his progression might end. An improvement of another 10 lbs would not come as a surprise. So 33/1 looks well worth taking. Best horse the stable has had since Dato Star.
Value Is EverythingIt is difficult to give Cape Tribulation a rating on Saturday’s performance and to some extent must be an educated guess. No other horse ran "to form". Hunt Ball palpably did not stay and all the other runners (including Imperial Commander) well below form.
Dont dwell too much on ratings Ginge,particularly in a Gold Cup,its a race you can throw the formbook out of the window more often than not.I rate a horse for this particular race on visual form and I certainly was pleased with what I saw.You only have to go back to
Synchronised
winning the Lexus to throw the ratings theory out the window.More than anything else,the most important factor to take from the Argento was the fact
Cape Tribulation
gave 6lb to a previous Gold Cup Winner,who was pretty straight from what I saw of him,he not only had Paddys confidence covered he ran on past him like a Gold Cup horse,that was no mean feat on Ground everybody who knows the horse would tell you was not ideal.He has to go up to a mark of 163 imo,what would you give him then?
With a current Official and Timeform rating well below his Gold Cup winning best, I wouldn’t judge anything by Imperial Commander’s running. He was over a stone below form.
I don’t really bother with giving ratings when I’ve got Timeform, but I do like reviewing the good races. Trying to give them a rating based on Timeform ratings going in to the contest; before the boys from Halifax get a chance to re-rate them. I believe Cape Tribulation’s Saturday performance better than they give him credit for. But as I said, it is a very difficult race to judge, with apart from the winner – no other horse running to form. Timeform themselves give him a "+" (for "may be better than we have rated it"). In my opinion it should be around 165p ("p" for "likely to improve").
Official ratings are on a different (slightly lower) scale than Timeform, so your 163 is very similar to mine.
Timeform gave Synchronised 167 after his Blue Riband victory, that being one of the worst ratings ever given to a Gold Cup winner… and it doesn’t look any better now! Cape Tribulation probably still needs to improve at least another 10 lbs (even on my 165p) to win this year’s race.
I also believe Timeform have under-rated the Lexus form by a few pounds. It doesn’t make any difference to Tidal Bay, Flemenstar or Sir Des Champ’s
Master
Rating because they were all put up in other races; but it does First Lieutenent’s. I believe Mouse’s gelding should be rated 169p (I give "p"’s more frequently than Timeform). I likes peas!
Value Is EverythingWith a current Official and Timeform rating well below his Gold Cup winning best, I wouldn’t judge anything by Imperial Commander’s running. He was over a stone below form.
Timeform gave Synchronised 167 after his Blue Riband victory, that being one of the worst ratings ever given to a Gold Cup winner… and it doesn’t look any better now! Cape Tribulation probably still needs to improve at least another 10 lbs (even on my 165p) to win this year’s race.
I also believe Timeform have under-rated the Lexus form by a few pounds. It doesn’t make any difference to Tidal Bay, Flemenstar or Sir Des Champ’sMaster
Rating because they were all put up in other races; but it does First Lieutenent’s. I believe Mouse’s gelding should be rated 169p (I give "p"’s more frequently than Timeform). I likes peas!
Thanks for the detailed response though Ginge!
With a current Official and Timeform rating well below his Gold Cup winning best, I wouldn’t judge anything by Imperial Commander’s running. He was over a stone below form.
you
that wanted to judge Imperial Commander on his Gold Cup form Gord, not I.
You
said "…the most important factor to take from the Argento was the fact Cape Tribulation gave 6lb to a
previous Gold Cup Winner
, who was pretty straight from what I saw of him…"
How did you come to the
163
Cape Tribulation Gord if you believe IC ran to around 164? CT gave IC 6 lbs and a half length beating. So if CT ran to 163, IC must have only ran to
156
.
Timeform gave Synchronised 167 after his Blue Riband victory, that being one of the worst ratings ever given to a Gold Cup winner… and it doesn’t look any better now! Cape Tribulation probably still needs to improve at least another 10 lbs (even on my 165p) to win this year’s race.
not
matter. I am judging how much Cape Tribulation
still
needs to improve on two things… The
average
Timeform rating of Gold Cup winners (going back 20 years) and the
top rated
staying chasers of
this
year (which is
NOT
Long Run).
I also believe Timeform have under-rated the Lexus form by a few pounds. It doesn’t make any difference to Tidal Bay, Flemenstar or Sir Des Champ’s
Master
Rating because they were all put up in other races; but it does First Lieutenent’s. I believe Mouse’s gelding should be rated 169p (I give "p"’s more frequently than Timeform). I likes peas!
Suppose it is the decades of reading Timeform. Their "+" means something different, so can’t use that. And "p" is so much easier than saying "scope for improvement". Even the word "scope" can have a different meaning in jump racing. And if I used "s" instead, it looks like half a "squiggle" and we don’t want to give Cape Tribulation one of those. Thanks for the detailed response though Ginge!
No problem.
You know me Gord, always "detailed".
Anything else I can help you with, please ask.
Value Is Everything
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