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No No Bingo’s two wins were on heavy Softie, so should act on it, but as you imply recently there’s heavy and then there’s "heavy". Am sure some go on heavy and don’t go in "desperate".
Another possible reason is No No Bingo hasn’t always jumped that well and again made several errors yesterday. May have lost confidence and did not want to know.
However, it was so bad (imo) more likely something amiss. Only 9 runs in his life, 1 in his first season to race and just 3 the second season (last one in Jan). Hopefully Softie, whatever kept him off the track hasn’t caught up with No No bingo.
Value Is EverythingReally like the look of Full of Joy Ginge especially now that he’s back at 3/1
Gran Torino looks interesting too, was far from disgraced in a couple of recent outings in decent events but now that he’s down to 9/1 the value isn’t superb.
Don’t think I’m going to be betting this race though as nearly every horse seems to have a decent chance and a lot of them have potential. Good luck though I’ll be rooting for the McManus horse as I think the team have big faith in it and can see him being a very strong horse in the future.
Hi BHison,
I liked Full Of Joy because he looks more open to improvement than the others. However, with McManus horses the market is often significant. Going back out to 100/30 is a bad sign. As low as 2/1 last night so quite a drift and I am far less confident now. The other McManus horse in the 3:15 is out from 7/2 top price to 13/2! Am sure The Bear Trap has a win in him, but this is first time out and the market (and reading between the lines of Rebecca Curtis’s statement) suggests he’s not fully fit. Sometimes they’re backed on course instead, hopefully that is the case with Full Of Joy otherwise it doesn’t look promising.Gran Torino is not one for me BHison, what went wrong last time out? Usually finds at least one too good for him and doesn’t seem progressive.
Value Is EverythingCheers for the response, and please call me ben!
you were dead right about Torino, pulled up around half way and looked lost the whole journey.
great tactics from the Pipe crew, never gave any of the other horses a look in, wondering if Full of Joy would have preferred better ground and a finish that involves a bit of turn of foot?
I said in another post but I’m only 20 and so have only been watching and betting on horses for a year or so. I’m a lot better at the flat race betting (although don’t like these shoddy winter handicaps at Wolverhampton etc, they really lack consistency. I find the flat easier to get a grip on than the jumps which seem to require a lot more studying and practice!
I’ve been reading this forum for a number of months now know the style of betting you do (normally go for the 3/1 or better and pick a couple in each race), but do you ever lump a big amount on a horse like Sprinter Sacre? Really can’t see it losing at Cheltenham and when you consider how many times horses are undeservingly 1/2 it makes Sacre’s 1/2 for the QueenMother seem superb even if the level of competition is top notch.
It’s like the Frankel scenario, as good as the other horses are it’s just in its own league.
I’ll be happy to answer any racing question Ben.
I’ve never liked lumping on long odds-on shots especially ante-post. But it is only a personal thing. If you consider Sprinter Sacre a better than 67% chance to win then there’s no reason not to take 1/2. However, remember that percentage allows for a possibility of losing your money through injury (not taking part). In fact I believe 2/5 is a better price with Victor Chandler than 1/2 with others. As they are giving a free bet of the same stake if any horse does not make it to Cheltenham. Even sound horses like Big Buck’s are not immune to such things. If as expected horses like Flemenstar, Finians Rainbow, Cue card and possibly Sizing Europe avoid him, Sprinter Sacre could start 1/5 or shorter on the day. A lot will depend where Flemenstar goes.
However, I’ve never been that good at identifying value bets at the shorter end of the spectrum Ben, which is why I don’t take such prices myself. No reason why anyone else should not do so.
So because I believe the race will cut up and with a long odds-on favourite making it potentially a good race to bet each way… I chose to have a small each way bet on Sanctuaire @ 16/1. Even he has question marks, one of these days Sanctuaire will refuse to start.
Value Is Everythingthanks I apreciate it a lot,
i believe Sacre will look stunning as always at Cheltenham and be the performance of the festival, I can see Simonsig avoiding him with his trainer wanting another win at the festival like last year but could see Flemenstar taking him on, however again I think Sacre is just a different league and will make Flem look ordinary even if he does perform well.
In my eyes Sacre is more talented than Big Bicks but Bucks has that extraordinary ability to always win and we’ve never seen Sacre get into a really close scrappy race so that could be something to look out for. I think it’s hard to put a % on how many times Sacre wins this race because horses of its ability don’t come along very often, but truth be told I’d put his chances at 95% barring a fall.
I know I’m sounding like a nuthugger but I had the same opinion on all of Frankels races and he was purely sublime, obviously he is a once in a lifetime horse but can see Sacre accomplishing the same feats to some extent. That Victor Chandler offer is really good especially as they’re only animals and anything could happen between now and race day. Can see Sacres odds going to 2/5 all-round with a win on the weekend.
I understand your method completely and think that’s something that is overlooked in other sports betting (but on this forum you guys seem to have it on-lock – in terms of finding a system that works for you and sticking with that system). In other sports people will do every kind of bet imaginable and that simply doesnt work for long term profitability. I have no idea why but I’ve made 80% of my profits from doing the outside e/w bets on the flat races (mainly at festivals like Ascot) so in future I’m going to try and keep my big bets to those events.
At least McCoy got his win for you in the end! Mad that it went out to 11/2 (I think it was that anyway). Some interesting races at Newbury today but reading the form of the young horses is always hard
At least McCoy got his win for you in the end! Mad that it went out to 11/2 (I think it was that anyway). Some interesting races at Newbury today but reading the form of the young horses is always hard
I am also of the opinion that Sprinter Sacre will prove he’s one of the best of all time Ben. Indeed, he’s already there for me. It’s been decades (may be never) since a chaser achieved suach a level of form this early in his career. But with National Hunt there are obstacles in the way, and they need to be jumped.
Arkle was the Frankel of National Hunt racing.
Sprinter Sacre could be the Dancing Brave.The Bear Trap got me back most of my stakes today. Best odds guaranteed helped me there. Somehow doubt Newbury will be on, -3 overnight and not due to get above freezing until around mid-day. Still, I’ll study two or three races. Juvenile and novice hurdles, a mares novice chase, a bumper and hunter – aren’t usually my thing. Only the Class 3 handicap chase appeals as a good betting race, but I am (if it’s on) going; so will make an effort to look at a couple of others.
Value Is EverythingIt’s strange because in the 2 or just over years I’ve been watching this sport theres been both Frankel and Sprinter Sacre, the first ever 2000 guineas I saw was the one in which Frankel dominated and the first ever Arkle trophey I saw was the one in which Sacre won so its been difficult for me to compare them to anything!
I’m glad we’re of the same opinion though, it shows I’m not just following the crowd and going along with whatever the pundits say as a lot of the time they chat sh*t.
The paddypower best price guaranteed is an absolute godsend!
Have fun at the races if Newbury’s on, might have a bet tomorrow if I’m feeling confident on anything.
2:25 Newbury
48 points @ 11/2 (L) Mountainous* (min 9/2)Savers:
9 points @ 15/2 (L) Loch Ba (min 7/1)
6 points @ 12/1 (b365) Allthekingshorses (min 11/1)Possibly one more main bet to come.
Value Is Everything2:25 Newbury
48 points @ 11/2 (L) Mountainous* (min 9/2)Savers:
9 points @ 15/2 (L) Loch Ba (min 7/1)
6 points @ 12/1 (b365) Allthekingshorses (min 11/1)12 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Ringa Bay* (min 18/1) (£24 available)
Value Is Everything3:30 Newbury
Saver first:
32 points @ 5/4 (PP) Vieux Lion Rouge (min 5/4)Value Is Everything3:30 Newbury
Saver first:
32 points @ 5/4 (PP) Vieux Lion Rouge (min 5/4)24 points @ 5.4/1 (betfair) Kalucci* (min 7/2) (£24 available)
Value Is Everything3:30 Newbury
Saver first:
32 points @ 5/4 (PP) Vieux Lion Rouge (min 5/4)24 points @ 5.4/1 (betfair) Kalucci* (min 7/2) (£24 available)
16 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Kalucci* (min 7/2) (£17 available)
Value Is EverythingI like the look of kalucci too simply because of the price, was interested in backing mountanous after seeing you tip but 3/1 now is a little too short in a competitive race.
I might play an e/w double with kalucci and fairyinthewind (7/2) at the 17.15 Kempton
By the way what do you mean when you say ‘£24 available’?
I like the look of kalucci too simply because of the price, was interested in backing mountanous after seeing you tip but 3/1 now is a little too short in a competitive race.
I might play an e/w double with kalucci and fairyinthewind (7/2) at the 17.15 Kempton
By the way what do you mean when you say ‘£24 available’?
When I tip a horse with a betfair price I quote the amount of £s available to take in the blue column at time of writing. It is obviously unfair to quote a 40 point bet @ say 5/1, if only say £4 was available at 5/1 at time of writing. Anyone following the tip should have at least a chance (if they’re quick) of getting on at the price. Although my stakes are in points, I don’t quote a betfair bet unless the same amount of points is available in £s. ie Even if I have myself already had 40 points on the horse, if there is only £24 available for the reader I will only put up a bet of up to 24 points. If there’s a bet where there’s plenty of money available I may say "40 points @ 5/1 with say £360 available (whatever it is at time of writing).
Kalucci moved well until the turn, but didn’t pick up. Trainer isn’t in great form at the moment, so that may be a factor. Fortunately for me my saver bet held on to win.
Had the winner of the other race Loch Ba, beating my two main bets Mountainous and Ringa Bay.
Two winners from two races today with a 1.5 points profit!
Value Is Everything
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