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No gambler worthy of the name would back at less than £10 a point. Your losing non-saver selections yesterday and today would amount to -£2030 based on you advised points stakes.
It’s a significant total loss.
Woolf, to explain my unconventional methods.
I use these stakes because it is easier for me to work out that way.For example Wick Hill:
Heavy ground gives a bit of a question mark on whether form will hold up. Therefore I multiplied by 4 instead of 5.
My idea of Wick Hill’s chance was 18% (9/2).
He was available @ 7/1 (12.5%).
18 – 12.5 = 5.5
5.5 x 4 = 22
22 + 18 = 40
So Stake = 40 points
I multiply that by a certain number to find my real stakes.I don’t want to bother changing my stakes now and (eg) dividing the 40 by 10 to produce a 4.0 stake for my thread; before multiplying it back up to find my own real stake. Waste of my time. It’s what I am used to. But there’s nothing stopping anyone else from dividing or multiplying my points by however much they wish.
According to you "No gambler worthy of the name would back at less than £10 a point". Really? If so my stake must be £400 or more. Where as if I’d said 4.0 points it would be £40 or more.
My 10 to 100 points staking plan is obviously EXACTLY the same as another person’s 1 to 10 or 0.1 to 1 staking plan. Each point is worth whatever the reader/follower wants it to be worth. As long as a point is worth the same on every post (at least until enough money is made to up what 1 point is worth).
I’ve never said how much 1 point is worth in my own betting and will not do so. Before I came to this forum I used to post on another which banned posting by £s. I agree, it seems vulgar to me. Anyone who wants to appear to be a big bettor can easily add a couple of zero’s to their real stakes. So using £s instead of points doesn’t mean anything different than points.
Value Is EverythingOf course if you exclude the savers, which many not wishing to back 7 runners in a single race would do then you’re down 62.00.
Eh.
Where does the 62 come from Woolf?
I don’t "exclude" anything?Value Is EverythingOf the seven runners you named for the 3.10 you landed a 22/1 winner, it’s a profit and you can’t argue with that. It would have been a worry seeing the runners carrying the weight of money falling by the wayside but you got out of jail as the winner, 2nd and 3rd home outclassed all the market leaders and your strongly advized selections. Nice hedging.
I wouldn’t exactly say "strongly advised" Woolf, they were advised selections. The point of having savers is to win if your main bets don’t. that’s what happened.
Value Is EverythingI don’t bet these days but I am intrigued by your unconventional methods.
Read it and learn Woolf, read it and learn.
Value Is EverythingYour losing non-saver selections yesterday and today would amount to -£2030 based on you advised points stakes.
It’s a significant total loss.
Eh,
I had bets in one race yesterday. The saver won and I made NO PROFIT / NO LOSS on the race.
I had bets in four races today. In only one race did I NOT get the winner.
With 1 selection in one race, the winner @ 7/1, GOOD PROFIT.
1 selection in another race @ 7/4 (less 10p R4) another winner (my saver a non-runner) GOOD PROFIT.
Another race with 7 selections a saver won VERY SMALL PROFIT.
In another race 3 selections no winner, LOSS.So where exactly is the "significant total loss". If you make a profit there is no loss at all.
Value Is EverythingOf course if you exclude the savers, which many not wishing to back 7 runners in a single race would do then you’re down 62.00.
Eh.
Where does the 62 come from Woolf?
I don’t "exclude" anything?In the 3.10 you advised 3 selections at 19pts, 30 pts and 13pts, they were all unplaced. Had you not advised a further 4 runners as your saver selections, you would have been down 62 pts, your winning saver was of sufficiently high odds to return, enough to cover the total outlay and return a profit.
It’s a profit but who is going to back seven runners in a race?King George VI Chase
30 points @ 8/1 (WH) Grands CrusSaver:
8 points @ 4/1 (Boyle) Long Run (min 7/2)Another saver:
3 points @ 14/1 (VC) Silviniaco Conti (min 12/1)28 points @ 6/1 (PP) Riverside Theatre* (min 11/2
Value Is EverythingOf course if you exclude the savers, which many not wishing to back 7 runners in a single race would do then you’re down 62.00.
Eh.
Where does the 62 come from Woolf?
I don’t "exclude" anything?In the 3.10 you advised 3 selections at 19pts, 30 pts and 13pts, they were all unplaced. Had you not advised a further 4 runners as your saver selections, you would have been down 62 pts, your winning saver was of sufficiently high odds to return, enough to cover the total outlay and return a profit.
It’s a profit but who is going to back seven runners in a race?Oh that’s what you were on about.
Who’s going to back 7 horses in a race? Me.
I’ve backed double that number before. Just ask TAPK.
If people don’t want to back the savers they don’t need to.Value Is Everything3:10 Ascot
19 points @ 18/1 (WH) Kazilan* (min 15/1)20 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Cash And Go* (min 7/1)
13 points @ 13/1 (betfair) Lyvius* (min 11/1)Savers:
9 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Balder Success (min 7/1) (£149 available)
7 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Ranjaan (min 10/1) (£674 available)
4 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Cause And Causes (min 18/1) (£159 available)
4 points @ 18.5/1 (betfair) Rattan (min 16/1) (£10 available)Another:
10 points @ 10/1 (L) Cash And Go* (min 7/1)Adding up the prices of the 7 horses I backed:
18/1 = 5.26%
My 8/1 and 10/1 bets on the same horse add up to 8.6/1 = 10.42%
13/1 = 7.14%
7.6/1 = 11.63%
10/1 = 9.09%
22/1 = 4.35%
18.5/1 = 5.13%So adding those percentages up = 53.02%. Which means had I backed all 7 horses to return the same amount, the price I’d be taking would be between 10/11 and 5/6.
In other words had I backed all 7 horses to return the same amount, it would be almost the same as backing one horse @ 10/11.
ie If people are willing to back one horse in a race @ 10/11, why should they not want to back 7 horses in one race at a combined price of 10/11?
Backing something I considered a 69% true 4/9 chance of winning @ odds of around 10/11.
Besides, I did not do it that way. Had I backed the 3 main bets all to return the same amount it would be 5.26 + 10.42 + 7.14 = 22.82%. Slightly shorter than combined odds of 7/2.
With a saver of 11.63 + 9.09 + 4.35 + 5.13 = 30.2%. Slightly better than 9/4.
So basically my bets were the
equivelent
of
one
main bet @
7/2
(that I thought had a
true 85/40
chance of winning… With
one
saver @
9/4
(that I thought had a
true 7/4
chance of winning). Does that sound better Woolf?
Value Is EverythingGinge, i admire your approach, you have shown it is profitable and consistent, however……..it will always attract detractors.
Woolfs question was "who backs 7 horses in race?". Well clearly you do, and you have demonstrated it is successful.
I admire your success.
However your detractors will always struggle with it because it is a difficult set of bets and staking plan to follow. To I ensure i get your 18% return i have to ensure i place every bet, and imo you have too many selections. I need to log in several times a day to get them all.
You will forever be defending your approach.
Maybe a thread where you post once a day, that way people could follow your selections? (As many bets in one race as you like!)
Once again – i have nothing but admiration for your approach.
Much love
I realise the thread is difficult to follow Eliwallach, but it would be impossible for me to do a once a day thing, as I need to take each price as and when I see it. Otherwise the price disappears; had I waited the 6/1 Riverside Theatre would’ve gone. I don’t expect people to back every horse I tip Eliwallach, just pop in now and again and may be back whatever’s the newest tip/s. Do now put a minimum price to take, if unable to get top price. No need to back all the savers if not so inclined either. Should make a profit just by backing a selection of main bets.
Value Is EverythingEli – The detractors you speak of should maybe understand that they can use the same system, without having to use the same selections. By the way, this ‘Woolf’ guy is not a part of my pack, and i suspect he is ProfessorTubshawe dressed up as a sheep ! To Ginge and all reading this post, Merry Christmas if you celebrate it.
I Can understand Woolf and Eliwallach’s frustration Lone, but in a way it’s just an "ocupational hazard".
Value Is EverythingKing George VI Chase
Already backed:
30 points @ 8/1 (WH) Grands Crus*
8 points @ 4/1 (Boyle) Long Run (min 7/2)
3 points @ 14/1 (VC) Silviniaco Conti (min 12/1)
28 points @ 6/1 (PP) Riverside Theatre* (min 11/2Now:
8 points @ 47/1 (betfair) For Non Stop* (min 28/1) (£166 available)Value Is EverythingKing George VI
I backed
Captain Chris
last time out in the Amlin on heavy ground. Won well by 3 ¾ lengths but getting 6lbs from the second For Non Stop. That being 2m3f, Captain Chris is an Arkle winner at 2m; third in this race last season on good. Isn’t absolutely certain to stay on the ground, but does look likely. Right handed courses suits best; no doubt Johnson will want to go around the inner to stop his mount jumping on an angle. With 17 lengths to make up on Long Run from 2011, Captain Chris needs to improve again. After a short poor spell Philip Hobbs is back in really good form.
Champion Court
looks outclassed, come up short each time taking on top class opposition. Races as if this will be too much of a stamina test anyway. Beaten 6 lengths off a mark of 155 in a 2m1f heavy ground handicap on reappearance.
I’d have fancied
Cue Card
quite strongly on good ground. Races prominently at shorter distances. Unless they all let the strong staying front-runner Junior go off on his own – Cue Card may not be able to go as slow as Tizzard would like. Undeniably impressive on reappearance (stable in cracking nick at time) but rivals Edgardo Sol and Menorah jumped poorly. Form looks suspect but did it so easily and has obvious potential. Nothing wrong with 7 length Second in Champion Chase (2m Good), giving the outstanding Sprinter Sacre his hardest race so far over fences. If Cue Card stays (big if for me on this going) has a chance.
As already said,
For Non Stop
was giving 6 lbs to Captain Chris when 3 ¾ length second in the Amlin on heavy. Not at all a bad run. However, if memory serves Nick Williams wasn’t in such good form there as when scooting home by 23 lengths on reappearance. Stable now once again in good form. For Non Stop looked an improved performer at Aintree and wasn’t stopping. Well below form only start at 3 miles, but that may be misleading. At 40something/1 looks worth taking a chance on.
Am already on
Grands Crus
@ 8/1 from some time ago. Ran disappointingly in RSA and similar on reappearance in Paddy Power. Travelling well for a long way before finding nothing under pressure. Looked a top class chaser in the making early in novice chase career and we know he stays 3 miles. Impressive Feltham win at this meeting last term, form that’s been franked several times by those finishing in behind including second Silviniaco Conti. Grands Crus has had a breathing op since Cheltenham and apparently pleasing connections at home. Stable in good form. Right back down around 8/1 again.
Junior
is one of only a few certain to both stay and act on the ground. However, doesn’t have much in the way of speed. Will need it bottomless to stop others from giving their best. Made all to win on reappearance, but Rehearsal Chase is not what it was. Three of just five runners “out of the handicap”, practically with only one to beat. Leading all the way may be important to him these days, seemed to enjoy himself more than normal. May well get his own way again here, there’s even a chance of being allowed a long lead. But unless that is the case all we know about him suggests won’t be good enough.
Kauto Stone
is no Star, but improved to win the JNWine on reappearance by a length from First Lieutenant. If progression continues could well emulate his half brother. However, there are some negatives. No doubt trainer had him spot on, so how much further up the tree he’ll go remains to be seen. Failed to go on after an impressive first start at the same Down Royal meeting last season. Often free and will need to settle equally as well, truly run race on heavy may be more of a stamina test than faced so far. Had Nicholls been able to run either Al Ferof or Silviniaco Conti then this Kauto would be third string.
We know how good
Long Run
was, but how good is he now? Won “2010” King George and 2011 Gold Cup while wearing ear plugs; but hasn’t had them in on recent starts. Why change such a winning formula? He’s surely not showing the same speed at home. Connections trying to rekindle enthusiasm by doing something different. Not until ear plugs are reintroduced for the race itself (has worn them in preliminaries since but not in race) can I believe Long Run will be back to his best. Not that he’d probably need to be to win this. Sam Waley-Cohen doesn’t seem as good a jockey these days either, confidence seems to have gone. Long Run is not the easiest ride, doesn’t leave much air at his fences though never fallen. Bit free early on but settles ok once getting in to the race. However, Long Run is proven on course, distance, going and has the best form in the race. Needed reappearance last two seasons so this year’s second in the Betfair may not be so disappointing as it looked at first.
Henderson’s "second string"
Riverside Theatre
has an exceptional record fresh, travels much better early on in his season. Pushed along from the start when winning Ryanair and no sort of race at Aintree afterwards. Won last two runnings of Ascot Chase on last two reappearance runs. Successful four from five at Kempton. Only defeat splitting Long Run and Kauto Star in the “2010” renewal. Suppose there’s a slight doubt about whether he’ll stay in these conditions, but I think a test of stamina may suit him well. Might take advantage if stable companion isn’t at his best.
The Giant Bolster
was second in a sub-standard Gold Cup, 2 ¼ lengths behind Synchronised. Had a below form Long Run ¾ length behind there. 4 ½ behind that rival on similar ground to this at Haydock on reappearance. May come on for the run, but so should Long Run and nowhere near sure to be suited by Kempton. Not raced right-handed for 19 starts since November 2009. Tom Scudamore is on Grands Crus so AP takes the ride.
My 100% book
Long Run 15/8
,
Riverside Theatre 9/2
, Cue Card 17/2, Grands Crus 17/2, Kauto Stone 10/1, Captain Chris 18/1, The Giant Bolster 20/1,
For Non Stop 20/1
, Junior 66/1, Champion Court 200/1
Value Is Everything
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