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12:45 Cheltenham
33 points each way @ 3/1 (WH) Highland Lodge*Value Is Everything12:45 Cheltenham
33 points each way @ 3/1 (WH) Highland Lodge*That’s each way 1/4 first 2.
Value Is Everythinghi ginge, admire your stats, and interested to understand your logic on the e/w at 3/1?
keep up the good work
Thanks Eliwallach, no problem.
If you want to know exactly why I rate Highland Lodge a good bet @ 3/1, then let me know (but for the moment) I presume it is the mathematics you’re questioning.
At 3/1 I’ll obviously lose 12.5% of my over all stake of 66 points if placed. Returning 57.75 of my 66 outlay. -8.25 points is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Yet in my opinion the chances of Highland Lodge being in the first two is enormous; with appart from the favourite none of the other runners appealling as capable of running to a mark as good as Highland Lodge if reproducing his best – and may well improve further. At 3/1 the place part of the bet pays better than 8/11. An alternative I sometimes use is backing the selection to win and then put a saver bet on betfair place market, getting back what I’d lose on the win bet. However, Highland Lodge is currently less than 4/6 at betfair for the place and you need to take commission out of that too.
The 3/1 win bet is also (imo) good value. I rate him a 5/2 shot. Therefore, Highland Lodge is (imo) good value in both win and place markets (each way).
Hope that helps Eliwallach, any other questions feel free to ask.
Value Is Everything12:45 Cheltenham
33 points each way @ 3/1 (WH) Highland Lodge*Betting without Our Father:
15 points @ 4/6 (boyle) Highland Lodge* (min 1/2)Value Is Everything1:55 Cheltenham
36 points @ 6/1 (PP) According To Pete* (min 5/1)
30 points @ 6/5 (VC) Coneygree (min 11/10)It’s Trev not Pete.
Value Is Everything2:30 Cheltenham
21 points each way @ 8/1 (FD) Notus De La Tour* (min 7/1)19 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Renard* (min 20/1) (£42 available)
2 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Michael Flips (min 25/1) (£15 available)
9 points @ 7/1 (b365) Unioniste (min 7/1)
Value Is Everything… And Kentford Grey Lady a most needed winner for my favourite
and most local trainer. After an unusually poor November, look out for her runners over Christmas, just coming in to form!
Shame I only backed one of Emma’s 4 winners today.
They’ll be celebrating down in The Fox Tangley tonight.
Value Is EverythingThree winners, just the one main bet Highland Lodge, but two savers also "victorious" in Coneygree and Unioniste – from bets in 4 races.
So another winning day of +70.25 points.
Value Is Everything12:55 Cheltenham
33 points @ 6/1 (PP) Whatuthink* (min 11/2)Should be Navan, not Cheltenham.
Value Is Everything12:55 Cheltenham
33 points @ 6/1 (PP) Whatuthink* (min 11/2)9 points @ 4/1 (WH) Un Beau Martin (min 7/2)
Value Is Everything12:55 Navan
33 points @ 6/1 (PP) Whatuthink* (min 11/2)9 points @ 4/1 (WH) Un Beau Martin (min 7/2)
Wanted to be against Simenon today as don’t believe he’s at his best on very soft ground. Unfortunately he’s come out and ruined the value, but at least the two have a better chance now. Hopefully Whatuthink and Maller Tree don’t take each other on up front.
Value Is Everything
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