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4:55 Newbury
20 points @ 20/1 (L) Owen Na View* (min 16/1)40 points @ 5/1 (B365) Cernunnos* (min 5/1)
saver:
35 points @ 7/4 (888) Village Vic (min 7/4)Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
Grand National
Already backed:
19 points @ 25/1 (B365) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)
27 points @ 12/1 (FD) Shutthefrontdoor* (min 10/1)
19 points @ 25/1 (L) Balthazar King* (min 20/1)
11 points @ 50/1 (L) The Druids Nephew* (min 40/1)
Now another:
6 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)(£167 available)saver bet (as yet):
3 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Many Clouds (min 40/1)(£70 available)
If he becomes a probable runner will go in again, owner’s comments very encouraging.saver:
10 points @ 14/1 (Generally) Rocky Creek (min 12/1)saver:
7 points @ 22/1 (B365 NRNB) Godsmejudge (min 22/1)Making Rocky Creek the main bet.
Another:
28 points @ 11/1 (B365, BOG, NRNB) Rocky Creek* (min 8/1)
(38 in all)
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
4:55 Newbury
20 points @ 20/1 (L) Owen Na View* (min 16/1)40 points @ 5/1 (B365) Cernunnos* (min 5/1)
saver:
35 points @ 7/4 (888) Village Vic (min 7/4)After Owen did the biz Saturday, can’t ignore him here.
3:40 Newbury
60 points @ 3/1 (FD) Owen N View* (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingAfter Owen did the biz Saturday, can’t ignore him here.
3:40 Newbury
60 points @ 3/1 (FD) Owen Na View* (min 11/4)saver:
15 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Morning Reggie (min 4/1)Value Is Everything4:45 Newbury
54 points @ 6/1 Hellorboston* (min 5/1)
saver:
16 points @ 7/2 Westaway (min 7/2)Value Is Everything3:05 Newbury
55 points @ 4/1 (Sky) Chosen Well* (min 7/2)
38 points @ 8/1 (Sportsbook) Ugolin De Beaumont* (min 13/2)Value Is EverythingIve done a Grand National preview here:
https://theracingforum.co.uk/racing-articles/grand-national-2015-horse-by-horse-guide/
And so to Day 1 Aintree:
3:25 Aintree
47 points @ 100/30 (PP) Rock On Ruby* (min 100/30)
24 points @ 16/1 (PP) Volnay De Thaix* (min 13/1)
saver:
38 points @ 15/8 (PP) Arctic Fire (min 15/8)Value Is EverythingSuspect you’ll get better prices than these in the morning, but won’t have much time to get on here.
2:50 Aintree
42 points @ 8/1 (PP) Menorah* (min 7/1)
43 points @ 4/1 (PP) Ma Filleule* (min 4/1)Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
Grand National
Already backed:
19 points @ 25/1 (B365) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)
27 points @ 12/1 (FD) Shutthefrontdoor* (min 10/1)
19 points @ 25/1 (L) Balthazar King* (min 20/1)
11 points @ 50/1 (L) The Druids Nephew* (min 40/1)
Now another:
6 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)(£167 available)saver bet (as yet):
3 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Many Clouds (min 40/1)(£70 available)
If he becomes a probable runner will go in again, owner’s comments very encouraging.saver:
10 points @ 14/1 (Generally) Rocky Creek (min 12/1)saver:
7 points @ 22/1 (B365 NRNB) Godsmejudge (min 22/1)Making Rocky Creek the main bet.
Another:
28 points @ 11/1 (B365, BOG, NRNB) Rocky Creek* (min 8/1)
(38 in all) 19 points @ 23/1 (betfair) Soll* (min 18/1)(£221 available)
Value Is EverythingJust to put all my Grand National bets in one post without “quote marks”:
19 points @ 25/1 (B365) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)
27 points @ 12/1 (FD) Shutthefrontdoor* (min 10/1)
19 points @ 25/1 (L) Balthazar King* (min 20/1)
11 points @ 50/1 (L) The Druids Nephew* (min 40/1)
6 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)(£167 available)
3 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Many Clouds (min 40/1)(£70 available)
10 points @ 14/1 (Generally) Rocky Creek (min 12/1)
7 points @ 22/1 (B365 NRNB) Godsmejudge (min 22/1)
28 points @ 11/1 (B365, BOG, NRNB) Rocky Creek* (min 8/1)(38 points in all)
19 points @ 23/1 (betfair) Soll* (min 18/1)(£221 available)There are a couple of other main bets am just waiting for an even better price.
Value Is Everything2015 Crabbies Grand National Handicap Chase 4m3f110yrds
1) 1-373P Lord Windermere (9) 11-10 Jim Cullotty 1/10 (Ireland) 161 Robbie McNamara
Winner of a substandard renewal of the Cheltenham Gold Cup (3m2½f good) in 2014; on and off bridle in rear before coming through to lead final strides. Short head and ¾ length victory over On His Own and The Giant Bolster, first three winless since. Lord Windermere has failed to reproduce the form in four races. Trainer and jockey have split over this year’s Gold Cup ride which is hard on Davy Russell; initially similar tactics used to when successful, just out of sorts and pulled up. (Figure after the trainer’s name signifies an out of 10 rating for the trainer’s current form (1/10)). Rumours of an equine virus in the yard; at time of writing no winners for over a year (68 runs) which might explain this season’s disappointing efforts. However, increasingly looks quirky; went 2 lengths up rounding home turn in Irish Hennessey (3m yielding) only to fold, finishing 8¾ lengths 3rd to Carlingford Lough. Best away from very soft ground. Laziness might help him stay this trip.
0.75% 132/1 (40/1) -1.7%2) 4-1116 Many Clouds (8) 11-09 Oliver Sherwood 6/10 160 Leighton Aspell
Won Newbury Hennessey (3m2½f soft) off 151 mark (now 9 lbs worse), with 3 ¼ lengths to spare over Houblon Des Obeaux who gave 6 lbs. Progressed again to win Grade 2 BetBright Cup (3m1½f soft), gave 8lbs and beat Smad Place 1¼ lengths. Appears a stayer and dam’s sister was placed in Cheltenham 4 miler. Potential for better at this trip if over his hard race last time. But why was he below form in the Cheltenham Gold Cup? Surprising did not make up more ground at the end of a strongly run 3m2½f. 24½ lengths 6th to Coneygree. Just an off day? Or over the top for the season? Chase course times on the day suggest it was quicker than the official “Soft”. Improvement came on genuinely soft ground but it’s possible racing at marathon distances good-soft will be fine. Let in here 5 lbs better than in a conventional handicap. Owner Trevor Hemmings loves this race and wants a runner, Hedgehunter 2005 and Ballabriggs 2011 successful. Like them – the genuine Many Clouds usually jumps well. Jockey Leighton Aspell won last year on Pineau De Re.
3.45% 28/1 (33/1) +0.5%3) 38-613 Unioniste (7) 11-06 Paul Nicholls 9/10 157 Noel Fehily
Last seven year old winner was Bogskar 75 years ago; but Unioniste has more experience – with 14 chases – than many much older. Improved form last two starts. Wide margin 10 lengths victory has made things harder here, won off 9 lbs lower mark of 148 for Sandown success from Bertie Boru who received 13 lbs. Suited by emphasis on stamina at trip, truly run 3m½f on soft. Again jumped well in first time cheek pieces in 3m Denman Chase on officially “soft” (day’s times compared to Racing Post Standard suggest it was quicker). Faced impossible task, 10½ lengths 3rd, trying to give subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Coneygree 5 lbs. Dropped to last on home turn before staying on. Untried beyond 3m2½f, type to do better with this increased test of stamina. Same grey colour and sire (Dom Alco) as owner and trainer’s 2012 Grand National winner Neptune Collonges. Trainer in excellent form of late (hence the trainer’s current form rating of 9/10).
3.45% 28/1 (33/1) +0.5%4) 25-2P1 Rocky Creek (9) 11-03 Paul Nicholls 9/10 154 Sam Twiston-Davies
Might have looked as though didn’t stay in this race last year (good-soft) off a 2 lbs higher (156) mark than here – travelling like a winner rounding home turn before weakening in to 18¾ lengths 5th behind Pineau De Re. Still possible he didn’t “stay”, however, ran similarly all three starts last season, 2013 Hennessey, 2014 Argento and Grand National. Had breathing operation afterwards and now finds much more for pressure. Improved form this season, including 11 lengths 2nd to Road To Riches in Grade 1 JN Wine (3m yielding). Winner subsequently close 3rd in Cheltenham Gold Cup. Despite Rocky Creek being pushed along some way out – found enough to go 18 lengths clear of 3rd Boston Bob. Pulled up in first time tongue tie in Hennessey. Usually has longer between races, 28 days there, 49 here. Career best to win Kempton BetBright Chase (3m soft) off this 154 mark. Travelled well on outer, jumping accurately as usual and although not under maximum pressure went clear, doing more than he used to. Giving 8 lbs and 6 lengths beating to Le Reve. Set to shoulder 9 lbs more (163) in future handicaps. Equally effective on soft or good ground. Arguably should be favourite and difficult to see finishing worse than in 2014, is the safest each way bet.
13% 13/2 (10/1) +3.9%5) -24683 First Lieutenant (10) 11-03 Mouse Morris 6/10 (Ireland) 154 Ms Nina Carberry
Well handicapped on 2013 form; won Betfred Bowl (3m1f good) over Aintree’s smaller fences by ¾ length from Menorah. 3¾ lengths 4th to a below par Silviniaco Conti (good) in same race last year. Some worthy efforts on soft/heavy, more consistent on goodish ground. Fine record at Aintree’s Mildmay course/in April. Suspect he’s got a breathing problem. Tongue tied recently, including last of 3 finishers when odds-on last time (over hurdles), not found much off bridle of late. Dropped 16 lbs since his peak, yet poorly handicapped judged on three disappointing chase efforts since April (all on soft surface). Poor 23 lengths last of 8 to Carlingford Lough in Irish Hennessey latest chase start. Tried blinkered, best in cheek pieces. Chance of staying further than 3m2f difficult to assess, Better chance of staying if racing lazily, but past results suggest needs to race enthusiastically to show form. Ms Nina Carberry is no negative, one of the best amateur jockeys around (of either sex).
1.75% 56/1 (33/1) -1.2%6) 12-F11 Balthazar King (11) 11-02 Philip Hobbs 4/10 153 Richard Johnson
2014 Grand National (good-soft) runner-up. Now 5 lbs better off for 5 lengths with winner Pineau De Re. 2 lbs worse with 4th Alvorado for 11¼ lengths; 5 worse with three – 5th Rocky Creek (improved since), 6th Chance Du Roy and 7th Monbeg Dude for 13¾, 14 and 17 lengths respectively. Kept further back than usual but on outer for unhindered view of fences. Under pressure before many, then staying on well. One of the best jumpers in this field; forget the “F” in form figures, fell at unconventional French x-country fence. Skipped the Cheltenham Festival to be fresh, although difficult to think it made any difference in 2014. Has a top-of-the-ground action that skims the grass and best away from very soft going. Ideal Grand National type, solid each-way material but the exposed 11 year old needs a few better handicapped individuals to run below form. There’s also a possibility age has caught up with him since last seen (Nov 14th) did not need to be at his best to win over Cheltenham’s x-country fences (3m7f good) 4/7 fav, beat Uncle Junior (levels) 1½ lengths.
6.75% 14/1 (10/1) -2.35%7) 2461-1 Shutthefrontdoor (8) 11-02 Jonjo O’Neil 6/10 153 AP McCoy
Improvement has come hand in hand with better jumping. Ruined his chance with mistakes, 3¼ lengths 6th in 2014 National Hunt chase (4m good-soft). Only run so far in a handicap chase, in moderately run Irish Grand National (3m5f good-yielding) off 142 Irish mark, now 11 lbs worse. Quickened run-in to win going away at the line, gave 7 lbs and beat Golden Wonder ¾ length. Dropped back to 3m½f (soft) in Carlisle Graduation race; form is nothing special but way he did it impressive. Led two out, only slight mistake plunging at the last before powering clear, beat Vintage Star (levels) with more to spare than an 8 lengths margin suggests. Successful on both soft and good, but less certain to get this trip if very soft, is no out and out stayer. Lacks experience with just six chase starts, but does make him less exposed/likely to improve. Five months off since Nov 10th, got an abscess in sinus January/February time which took a while to heal up; good record fresh anyway. Current favourite and being AP McCoy’s final Grand National ride before retirement sure to be well backed by Joe Public on the day. Good chance of emulating connections 2010 winner Don’t Push It if continuing to jump well, but – win or lose – there are better value bets in this field.
10% 9/1 (15/2) -1.7%8) 1-0P80 Pineau De Re (12) 11-00 Dr Richard Newland 6/10 151 Daryl Jacob
Victorious in 2014 Grand National for small but capable yard. However, should not be presumed he’s a particularly good jumper. Despite a bad mistake at 13th fence (one of smallest obstacles) and a few minor errors too – had enough in hand to win off chase mark of 143. Not out of it this time around on 8 lbs higher (151) especially if jumping more accurately. Now 5 lbs worse off with 2nd Balthazar King for 5 lengths, 7 lbs for 16¼ lengths with 4th Alvorado, 10 lbs for 18¾ lengths with 5th Rocky Creek (improved since). Also 10 lbs worse off with both 6th Chance Du Roy and Monbeg Dude for 19 and 22 lengths respectively. Impossible to know what Pineau De Re is still capable of; not coming in to this in as good form as 2014. 19½ lengths 11th last time out off a hurdles mark just 3 lbs worse than when beaten less than a length in same Pertemps Hurdle. Obviously trained for one race all season and career best performance at aged 11; yet most racehorses are on the downgrade at the age he is now, 12. 2014 winning jockey Leighton Aspell has apparently chosen Many Clouds, replaced by 2012 winner (on Neptune Collonges) Daryl Jacob.
3.45% 28/1 (25/1) -0.4%9) -2173P Ballycasey (8) 10-13 Willie Mullins 8/10 (Ireland) 150 Ruby Walsh
Tried at around 3 miles twice over fences, both times appearing not to get home. In front and travelling best of all 3 out in 2014 RSA (3m½f good) 8½ lengths 4th to O’Faolains Boy. Again last off the bridle in Grade 1 Growise Champion Novices Chase (3m1f good) at Punchestown, 4¼ lengths 2nd to Carlingford Lough. Kept to shorter trips afterwards but hasn’t found a great deal off bridle there either. Simple task on reappearance (2m4f heavy). Well below best when 26¼ lengths 3rd to Balder Success in Betfair Ascot Chase (2m5½f soft). Then never going with usual zest dropped out the back in Ryanair (2m5f good), pulled up 3 out. Possibly best ridden nearer the pace/in smaller fields. Around 40/1 might seem value about a horse from the same trainer/jockey combination as 2005 winner Hedgehunter (Ruby Walsh also won in 2000 on his father trained Papillon). But Ballycasey would be at least three times that price with different connections. Stands a much better chance if going for Friday’s Topham over 2m5½f.
0.25% 400/1 (40/1) -2.2%10) 015-44 Spring Heeled (8) 10-12 Jim Cullotty 1/10 (Ireland) 149 Nick Scholfield
Trainer won the Grand National as a jockey with spare ride Bindaree in 2002. Spring Heeled was probably unfit for first race since July, on unsuitably soft ground and stable were/are badly out of form, no winners since March 2014. 18½ lengths 4th of 5 to Roi Du Mee in Bobbyjoe. Made most, jumping really well to win 2014 Kim Muir (3m1½f good) off a mark 11 less (138) than faces here. Now 3 lbs worse off for 1¾ lengths with 2nd Cause of Causes (who’s won this year’s National Hunt Chase at the Festival). Spring Heeled was below his best off this 149 mark in Bet365 at Sandown (3m5½f good-soft) final start last season. Losing a prominent spot and confidence with a mistake nine out, rider seemingly quick to accept the situation three out before staying on to be 5th. Only 5 lbs better off with winner Hadrian’s Approach for 15½ lengths and 2 lbs with 3rd Godsmejudge for 12¼ lengths. Considering inadequate 2m6f trip ran well in Galway Plate (good), 14½ lengths 4th to Road To Riches (levels, improved since). Appears weighted to the hilt but could yet improve with an increased test of stamina. Bears repeating, trainer form currently a substantial negative.
2% 50/1 (25/1) -1.85%11) 54121 Rebel Rebellion (10) 10-12 Paul Nicholls 9/10 149 Ryan Mahon
Successful over Grand National fences in 2013 Grand Sefton (2m5½f soft) off 139 mark, giving a stone and a ½ length beating to Your Busy. Victorious rider Ryan Mahon takes the ride again here. Only fair 5th in this season’s Sefton but improved afterwards. Winning at Ascot off 141 mark (2m5½f soft) finding plenty. And Newbury (2m4f good) tenaciously by a length, giving 4 lbs (less Jack Sherwood’s 5 lbs claim) to Pepite Rose, the pair 14 lengths clear – off this 149 mark. Yet to race beyond 3m, stayed that trip well (good-soft) at Exeter when 2nd. Now 8 lbs (3 lbs + claim) better off for 4 lengths with Soll (good winner since). Should stay a bit further than 3m but has another 1m3½f to go here. Well handicapped, 7 lbs well-in, set to go up to 156 in future handicaps, including in Topham, distance of 2m5½f might suit better and can be reunited with Jack Sherwood.
2% 50/1 (66/1) +0.5%12) 28180 Dolatulo (8) 10-11 Warren Greatrex 6/10 148 Dougie Costello
Favourite; bit disappointing on first experience of Grand National fences in Grand Sefton (2m5½f good-soft), 11¾ lengths 8th to Poole Master who gave him 3 lbs. One notable mistake at 7th (ditch) and jumping left when tired in closing stages; another error at the last ended chance of a place. Won Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby (3m1f good-soft) over stiffest test he’s faced, staying on to beat Cape Tribulation who gave 3 lbs 2½ lengths. Has since raced over hurdles presumably in an attempt to preserve handicap mark. Only 19th of 23 in Pertemps Hurdle last time, didn’t seem suited by being dropped out. In truth, had he run again over fences might have seen his mark drop. Upped 9 lbs for Wetherby race yet 2nd, 3rd and 4th all well beaten since. Might stay further than 3m1f, but 4m3½f? Sire Le Fou is a half-brother to Monjeu by miler Polish President, dam flat 1¼m winner.
0.2% 500/1 (66/1) -1.3%13) 1-P015 Mon Parrain (9) 10-11 Paul Nicholls 9/10 148 Sean Bowen
Sprang to prominence as a 5 year old, looking all over the winner cruising to the front in Topham (2m5½f good) over Grand National fences, only to give the race away run-in. Still of doubtful temperament; last two wins when cheek pieces and then blinkers were used for the first time; what price visor or hood? Latter win (3m2½f good-soft) in January; jumping boldly to beat another weak finisher Our Father a length giving 7 lbs – less Sean Bowen’s 5 lb claim. Back to disappointing times latest effort. Possibly more ability than shown and new headgear could improve his chance. However, win came off 142, now 148 and promising claimer though Bowen is – will be unable to claim his 5 lbs allowance here, so effectively 11 lbs worse. 3m2½f is furthest he’s gone. If dossing might stay, but experience shows probably needs to show enthusiasm to run well.
0.25% 400/1 (50/1) -1.75%14) -32213 Carlito Brigante (9) 10-10 Karen McLintock 3/10? 147 Brian Harding
Small trainer Karen McLintock has done really well since taking over the training of Carlito Brigante from Gordon Elliott. Jumped impeccably to win Marshall Trophy (3m2f good) at Kelso penultimate start. Race fell apart a bit, principle rivals not firing but did it impressively, quickening 17 lengths clear, giving 2nd Gleann Na Ndochais 19 lbs. Put up 9 lbs for that (138 to 147) but might have more to give under the right conditions. Appears to need a sound surface, too much watering could scupper his chance. Never travelling with as much fluency last time (2m7½f good-soft). Times on the day compared to Racing Post Standard suggests it was softer. Stays 3m2f; unlikely to get much further. Already outstayed pedigree, by Guineas and Champion Stakes winner Haafhd out of 7f winner.
1% 100/1 (66/1) -0.5%15) -40233 Night In Milan (9) 10-09 Keith Reveley 5/10 146 James Reveley
Thought a Doncaster specialist, but the trainer’s local course often produces goodish ground which may be the reason it is favoured by connections. Aintree is a similar left-handed flat track and Night In Milan ran well there in last chase away from Donny on the Mildmay course. Length 2nd in May 2013. Improvement he’s shown since seems to have come to an end. Last win March 2014 in Grimthorpe (3m2f good) off a 10 lbs lower mark (136) than here. Gave 7 lbs and beat Storm Survivor 5 lengths. Handicapper probably has his measure now, ran off this 146 mark last two starts and remains 146. 11 lengths 3rd in same race (good) no answer to the well handicapped Wayward Prince who received 22 lbs. Different tactics tried initially in his Liverpool prep, likely an attempt to see if he’ll settle easier over further by being dropped out. Bad mistake at the first and (as usual) both racing prominently and jumping well by the sixth. Races exuberantly, but sire Milan was a middle-distance/stayer, winner of the St Leger and responsible for last year’s Grand National 3rd Double Seven and dams sire Mandalus also a stamina influence; fairly good chance of staying.
3.25% 28/1 (28/1) +0%16) -45211 Rubi Light (10) 10-09 Robert Hennessy 8/10 (Ireland) 146 Andrew Lynch
At one time able to tackle the best, nowhere near that good these days but won his last two. 4 runner minor event (2m2f soft to heavy) and then 11 runner Veteran’s handicap (2m3f soft) off Irish mark of 145, out-jumping, out-battling, and giving runner-up He’llberemembered 8 lbs and beating him ¾ length. Only tried 3m twice in two Grade 1’s, good 8½ lengths 2nd to subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Synchronised in 2011 Lexus (3m good) and 13 lengths 4th to China Rock in 2012 Punchestown Gold Cup, weakening over the testing 3m1f on heavy. May be an admirable racehorse, a good jumper and acts on heavy and good going; but has practically no prospect of staying 4m3½f whatever the ground. Much better chance/ ideal type for Friday’s Topham (2m5½f).
0.125% 800/1 (100/1) -0.875%17) -12751 The Druids Nephew (8) 10-09 Neil Mulholland 8/10 146 Aidan Coleman
Best handicapped horse according to the official handicapper, carries 10 lbs more in future handicaps. Impressive at Cheltenham last time (3m1f good-soft, times on the day suggest it was good). Gave Grand Gesture 3 lbs (6 if not for 2nd jockey’s claim). Skewed at second fence, jumped well otherwise, particularly so last two. Fair jumper overall, but is a slight concern and dwarfed in paddock at Newbury. Davy Russell in saddle for Hennessey (3m2½f soft) error second and another mistake sixth dropped him back to last, rapid headway back straight to be close 4th rounding home turn; another blunder three out put paid to any chance of a place; ending up 24½ lengths 7th of 19. Travels well but the way he runs on and dam’s side of pedigree gives some encouragement will stay. Acts on soft and good ground. Aidan Coleman replaces injured regular rider Barry Geraghty.
9% 10/1 (14/1) +2.3%18) 20-751 Cause Of Causes (7) 10-09 Gordon Elliott 7/10 (Ireland) 146 Paul Carberry
Still a “novice” but this is his second season over fences and more chase starts (11) than most. 2nd in 2014 Kim Muir (3m½f good), now 3 lbs better off for 1¾ lengths with Spring Heeled, pair 17 clear; off mark 6 lbs lower (140). Blundering away chance at final fence. Never travelling or jumping, 12th in Irish Grand National (3m5f good-yielding). Got head in front for the first time over fences; last to first at Cheltenham (difficult tactics to achieve at Aintree) in National Hunt Chase (4m good-soft). Handicap mark going in to that race enough to win an average renewal. Value for more than 1½ lengths margin over Broadway Buffalo. Although tactically astute, rider got ban for use of the whip, marking his horse. Seven runners took final fence together before superior speed proved decisive. Be some double for the dam if successful at Aintree, he’s a three parts brother to Derby winner Kris Kin. Gordon Elliott was the last Irish trainer to win the Grand National with Silver Birch in 2007. Jockey Paul Carberry won the race in 1999 aboard Bobbyjoe.
3.45% 28/1 (18/1) -1.8%19) 23-P50 Godsmejudge (9) 10-08 Alan King 4/10 145 Wayne Hutchinson
Has long appealed as an ideal Grand National type. Could yet improve for this 3f longer trip and a race favouring sound jumping. Effective on heavy or good ground. Won 2013 Scottish Grand National (4m½f good) off 6 lbs lower (139) than here. 2nd in same 2014 April showpiece (good-soft) now 5 lbs better with winner Al Co for 1½ lengths, edging closer near the line. Is 4 lbs lower (141) in future handicaps but raced off this 145 mark at both Ayr and Sandown (3m5½f good-soft) two weeks later. 3¼ lengths 3rd, now 5 lbs better with winner Hadrian’s Approach. Uncharacteristic error at ditch in front of stands. Trained for one event, raced over wholly inadequate 3m trips this season. Below form, including over hurdles last time, did not have the pace or not asked to get preferred prominent position; disappointing nonetheless. Possibly importantly usually comes to hand in April.
5.25% 18/1 (22/1) +0.9%20) 1-0P33 Al Co (10) 10-08 Peter Bowen 9/10 145 Denis O’Regan
So far only raced once beyond 3¼m, much improved when winning 2014 Scottish Grand National (4m½f good-soft) off 5 lbs lower mark (140) than here. Now 5lbs worse off with 2nd Godsmejudge for 1½ lengths. Held up initially, mistake second then jumping better on outer as they fanned out, gradually making up ground to track the pace before going for home in the straight. Jinked at something near the finishing line, almost unseating. Appeared to hate these fences on first experience of Aintree, awful display of jumping in Becher Chase (3m2f good-soft), always behind and pulled up. Ran well enough in two races over hurdles since, once again racing wide. Possibly needs room at obstacles, 40 runners and tight turns here. Peter Bowen has a great record at Aintree, Always Waining victorious in three Topham Chases over this course. Unexposed at extreme trips.
2.5% 40/1 (25/1) -1.35%21) -24430 Monbeg Dude (10) 10-07 Michael Scudamore 6/10 144 Liam Treadwell
Jumping improved under tutelage of Zara Phillips (wife of part owner Mike Tindall) but still not fluent despite getting around in 2014 Grand National (good-soft). Does not get very high and paid for going through top of fences; not staying on like we know he can. Below form 22 lengths 7th to Pineau De Re, now 10 lbs better off. Best form at Cheltenham and Chepstow, on undulating tracks (possibly not flat Aintree). Winner of 2012 Welsh Grand National. Good as ever in 2014 renewal (3m5½f heavy) off 2 lbs higher (146) than here. Staying on in straight but nothing more to give after mistake last. 8¾ lengths 4th to Emperor’s Choice who received 15 lbs. Three who beat him were more prominently ridden. Ignore last time out at Cheltenham, barely asked a question anchored in rear over an inadequate test of stamina (3m1f good-soft) 25 lengths 14th of 24. Best on a soft surface. Trainer’s grandfather (also Michael) rode Oxo to win 1959 Grand National. Rider Liam Treadwell won the race in 2009 on 100/1 shot Mon Mome.
1% 100/1 (50/1) -1%22) 10-33P Corrin Wood (8) 10-07 Donald McCain 2/10 144 David Casey
Trainer of the 2011 Grand National winner has not been in as good form this season (currently 2/10 trainer in form rating) possibly has a virus. Corrin Wood made all to win his first three chases in small field novice chases last season, best of them beating Black Thunder 2½ lengths (3m½f heavy). Last of 10 finishers in 2014 RSA halted the winning sequence (3m½f good). Fair 11½ lengths 3rd giving 8 lbs to winner Dolatulo in Rowland Meyrick (3m1f good-soft) getting most in trouble with bold jumping front-running at a good pace, no extra after the last. More competition for the lead last time out, downed tools once headed/surrounded. Looks increasingly claustrophobic and needs to lead or dispute it. Should stay further than 3m1f in a race he can dominate without pushing himself; which is highly unlikely here.
0.25% 400/1 (80/1) -1%23) 261U-P The Rainbow Hunter (11) 10-07 Kim Bailey 7/10 144 David Bass
Kim Bailey has had his best season for some time, he won the 1990 Grand National with Mr Frisk, an exceptional jumper – unlike The Rainbow Hunter who tends to get in too tight and/or go through the top. Won 2014 Skybet Chase (3m soft) on first start after a wind operation, only noticeable mistake 5 out; gave Baile Anrai 9 lbs and 1½ lengths beating. Being hauled back by the runner-up and didn’t look as though a marathon trip is what he wants despite his sire Chester Cup winner Rainbow High. Almost unseated at first fence in 2014 Grand National (good-soft) and another slight error at Valentines before jinking to avoid a faller; unseating. Just one run since – in February – BetBright Chase, never travelling and soon tailed off after niggling errors. 11 years old and no recent form to say he’s still capable.
0.125% 800/1 (66/1) -1.375%24) F-3331 Saint Are (9) 10-06 Tom George 6/10 143 Paddy Brennan
Change of stables has paid dividends; jumping has improved significantly, possibly due to a switch to racing prominently. Only error at Catterick (3m1½f good-soft) coming at the first, showing best form for some time. Trouble is he’s made things harder here, up from 129 to 143 and never previously been successful off so high a mark. Eased for a 7 lengths victory over Everaard who received 12 lbs; runner up was pushed along throughout and favourite Red Devil Boys lost all chance slipping on home turn. Saint Are may not be the best handicapped horse on what he’s done, but could yet improve at his beloved Aintree/Spring. 3¾ lengths 3rd in Becher (3m2f good-soft) has progressed since and now 7 lbs worse off with winner Oscar Time. Jumped well and further they went the better, responding to pressure. Also winner of 2012 3m1f handicap chase and 2011 3m Sefton novice hurdle on Mildmay Aintree course both at this meeting. Goes on soft or good ground. Gives the impression could see further progress over extreme distances.
4.25% 22/1 (33/1) +1.3%25) 0-800B Across The Bay (11) 10-06 Donald McCain 2/10 143 Henry Brooke
Likely to lead at some stage but unlikely to stay there. Virtually carried out whilst leading after first circuit of 2014 Grand National, hampered same stage in 2013 too; 14th in both races. In truth, from what we know of him doubtful he’d have played a hand in the finish. Front runner, claustrophobic and downs tools if surrounded, though genuine in a finish. Seems to have improved his jumping of late, hopefully won’t be affected by being brought down last time, beginning to struggle at the time. Trainer won 2011 renewal with Ballabriggs. Like many of Donald McCain’s horses, not at his best so far this season; might be worth keeping an eye on how the stable’s horses go during the meeting (currently 2/10). Across The Bay is inconsistent at the best of times but is on a 5 lbs lower mark than last year. Better than position indicates; 63 lengths 13th of 14 finishers in Becher Chase (3m2f good-soft) in front until Valentines. Proven over 3½m and should stay. Six of eight wins were on heavy, two on soft.
0.25% 400/1 (66/1) -1.25%26) 31P0-5 Tranquil Sea (13) 10-05 Warren Greatrex 6/10 142 Gavin Sheehan
Last 13 year old to win the Grand National was Sergeant Murphy in 1923. One time useful chaser Tranquil Sea won the 2009 Paddy Power Gold Cup (2m4½f soft) when trained in Ireland by Edward O’Grady. Known previously for his 2m/2½m form; is on the downgrade nowadays but won 3m (good-soft) uncompetitive Veterans handicap off 135 mark in February 2014. By 2 lengths (value for 8) from Time For Rupert who gave 3 lbs. Settled in rear before coming through to win eased down. Ran poorly next two starts, then – first race for 11 months/more than 3m – (3m2½f good-soft)… 21¾ lengths to make up on winner Soll on same terms/marks here. Poorly handicapped. One run over National fences, 20 lengths 6th in 2013 Topham, not appearing to take to the course. Entitled to come on for the run, but impossible to know if he’s still capable now a teenager. One of the least likely to stay this marathon trip. Invariably held up for a late run.
0.1% 1000/1 (100/1) -0.9%27) 11U14 Oscar Time (14) 10-05 Robert Waley-Cohen 6/10? 142 Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
No 14 year old has ever won the Grand National, Peter Simple successful at 15 in 1853. Hello Bud won 2012 Becher at 14. Oscar Time won Becher (3m2f good-soft) as 13yo off a 6 lbs lower mark (136); by ¾ length from Mendip Express who gave 8 lbs. Jumping well and catching leader run-in. Other two wins in form figures less competitive hunter-chases. Amateur rider (owner/trainer’s son) Sam Waley-Cohen has an exceptional record at this course. Could use 3 lbs claim in Becher but not in Grand National, so will be just 7 lbs better off for 3¾ lengths with 3rd, the improved since Saint Are and 9lbs worse with 5 lengths 5th Chance Du Roy. Also, as 12yo 19¼ lengths 4th, gave winner Aurora’s Encore 8 lbs in 2013 Grand National (good-soft), and 2011 (good) receiving 5 lbs 2¼ lengths 2nd to Ballabriggs as 10yo; in both races off 3 lbs higher mark (145) than here. Not jump as well as usual, below form 15¼ lengths 4th of 7 finishers last time. Is age catching up with him? We know he’s much better at Aintree than elsewhere but a place might again be the best can hope for.
1.5% 66/1 (66/1) -0%28) 20P1P Bob Ford (8) 10-04 Rebecca Curtis 5/10 141 Paul Townend
Has been put up 12 lbs for winning on barely raceable ground (3m4f heavy) 89.8 seconds slower than Racing Post Standard. Race fell apart behind him, making all. 10 ran but Bob Ford was the only one to cope. Would’ve finished alone had runner-up Gorgehous Lliege not started again after being pulled up. He himself pulled up last time out in Midlands Grand National, six weeks possibly not enough to recover. Been dropped 2 lbs (139) in future handicaps. All five wins under rules on soft/heavy ground when making all. 24 lengths 10th of 13 finishers in Grand Sefton (2m5½f good-soft) over these fences. Missed the break, bad mistake at the first and always behind, never looked happy, making several mistakes and jumping left, whether to do with going, positioning or course.
0.1% 1000/1 (100/1) -0.9%29) 4/P2-67 Super Duty (9) 10-04 Ian Williams 9/10 141 Will Kennedy
Lightly raced in recent years so obvious had physical problems. Good 1¼ lengths 2nd back in Dec 2013 (3m good-soft) in Graduation chase when trained by Donald McCain. Now 13 lbs better with winner Hadrian’s Approach who’s progressed since. On limited evidence (two runs) Special Duty has regressed. First start for over a year; held up, 13 lengths last of six finishers over hurdles (3m1f soft). Then in Grimthorpe, 3¼m on good (might need softer) disputed lead until slow jump and passed by halfway; soon beaten. Best with a view of the front. Made most in 2013 Kim Muir (3m1½f good-soft) off 1 lb higher mark than here. Head 2nd to Same Difference who was in receipt of 5 lbs (+ winning jockey’s 7 lb claim). Fought back when headed run-in. By St Leger winner Shantou and dam’s sire Topanoora stayed 1½m on flat, together with lazy run-style suggests should stay this trip. Races with head high. Probably not as good/genuine as once was due to his ailments. Trainer in good form.
0.2% 500/1 (80/1) -1%30) P16-2F Wyck Hill (11) 10-04 David Bridgewater 6/10 141 Tom Cannon
Won 2014 Eider Chase (4m1f Heavy) off an 8 lb lower mark (133) than here, by ¾ length, giving 11 lbs + 2nd Smoking Aces jockey’s 5 lbs claim. Reverted to racing nearer the front and tongue tied for first time. Tracked pace before taking it up on final circuit, jumping better once in front, idled run-in, held on. Ran well enough on belated January reappearance in novice hurdle (3m heavy) 1¾ lengths 2nd to Mackerye End. Pushed along from the start in this season’s Eider (good-soft). Not much room on inner, not his first error when fell at sixth. Best form on very soft ground racing prominently or tracking pace. Held up when a poor 21¾ lengths 9th of 16 finishers in 2013 Becher (3¼m soft) over these fences; never travelling and several mistakes in behind horses. Stays all day. Rain might improve his chance but has not had an ideal preparation anyway.
0.75% 132/1 (80/1) -0.5%31) P11P4 Gas Line Boy (9) 10-04 Philip Hobbs 4/10 141 James Best
Bold jumping front/prominent runner who makes ground at most obstacles but can get one wrong. Proved suited by extreme test of stamina (3m5f soft) when yard were carrying all before them in November; off a 9 lbs lower mark (132) than here. Only horse to show his form so merit not easy to assess. Made a strong pace, couple of errors one when awkward at the last. Beat fellow top weight and subsequent Welsh Grand National winner (usually needs reappearance) Emperor’s Choice 13 lengths with 55 back to only other finisher of eight. Gas Line Boy himself never travelling/jumping with the same fluency at Chepstow when held up/amongst horses, off much higher mark (149). Dropped again (142) and back to prominent tactics/bold jumping in Haydock Grand National Trial (3m5f soft) ran well, 19½ lengths 4th to Lie Forrit who was in receipt of 3 lbs. Leading until three out, seemed to bank the last. Big horse with a long stride, great jumper when standing off but finds it difficult shortening. Effective on a soft surface. Possibly best of the 100/1+ outsiders.
1% 100/1 (100/1) 0%32) P46-55 Chance Du Roy (11) 10-04 Philip Hobbs 4/10 141 Tom O’Brien
Won 2013 Becher (3m2f soft) over these fences off a mark 6 lbs lower (135) than here. Initially held up before making gradual progress with economic jumping, led two out, idled then rallied to beat Baby Run (who gave 1 lb) a length. Not his first or last good run over this course. Only 6th off 143 in 2014 Grand National (good-soft). Bad mistake 4th, hampered Valentines and dropped to rear, made ground to track leaders still going well three out where squeezed; possibly tellingly losing ground from last. Effective at 2m6f to 3m2f, but 4m3½f? Now 10 lbs better off for 19 lengths with Pineau De Re, 5 lbs better off for 14 with 2nd Balthazar King, 3 lbs for 2¾ with 4th Alvarado. This season, 5th off today’s mark, now 9 lbs better off for 5 lengths with winner Oscar Time in Becher (good-soft) 12 lbs better with Saint Are (improved since) for 1¼. Disappointing 5th last time out at Exeter (3m good-soft), now 9 lbs better off for 14½ lengths with winner Soll. Inroads past beaten horses in straight before bad mistake two out. But we know he’s better at Aintree than elsewhere.
2% 50/1 (40/1) -0.25%33) P1292 Portrait King (10) 10-03 Maurice Phelan 6/10? (Ireland) 140 Davy Condon
Won 2012 Eider Chase (4m1f good) off a 9 lbs lower mark (131) than here; gave Posh Bird 13 lbs and 3 lengths beating. Held up, challenged and lost momentum with a bad mistake two out, enough in hand to quicken on run-in to win fairly easily. Well beaten 9th of 10 finishers in 2015 renewal penultimate start (good-soft) confidence went, several errors after needing to jump the prostrate Wyck Hill. Ran well enough over hurdles last time. Showed he’s still capable with 1½ lengths 2nd three starts back, in Punchestown Grand National Trial (3m4f soft) off 132 Irish mark – to the eased Embracing Change who received 15 lbs. Appears handicapped out of things. Will be suited by the extended trip, possibly not the fences. Not normally a “poor” jumper, but often slow/out-jumped.
0.5% 200/1 (80/1) -0.75%34) 3-8256 Owega Star (8) 10-03 Peter Fahy 7/10 (Ireland) 140 Robbie Power
Coped well with first two tries at as far as 3m (soft) possibly suited by relative tests of speed, both races run comparatively slowly. In Troytown at Navan off 134 Irish mark, 1¾ lengths 2nd gave 13 lbs (less winner’s 3 lb claim) to all the way winner Balbriggan. Then, better than result needing to wait for a run off home turn; 10½ lengths 5th in Leopardstown Paddy Power (3m½f heavy) off 138, gave 8 lbs to winner Living Next Door. Again off 138, not jumping or travelling with usual fluency, 32 lengths 6th in Leinster National (3m soft) last time, gave winner Miss Xian 24 lbs. Winner on heavy and good; softer it is the less chance of staying. Way he travels at 3m and shorter suggests not crying out for marathon trips and by 11 furlong winner Basanta, dam’s sire sprinter College Chapel. Rider Robbie Power was on board the last Irish trained Grand National winner Silver Birch in 2007.
0.2% 500/1 (100/1) -0.8%35) 58P14 River Choice (12) 10-03 Richard Chotard 6/10? (France) 140 David Cottin
No French trained horse has ever won the Grand National, but not many tried and having automatic top weight for many years hasn’t helped them. River Choice was a 50/1 6th in France’s best jump race, Grand Steeple-Chase De Paris (3m6f very soft) in May 2014 when trained by C Aubert. 19¼ lengths 6th giving 4 lbs (weight for age) to Storm Of Saintly. Racing with head high in rear, still last of the pack between five and six out before passing beaten horses. Possibly well handicapped if you can believe that form, but appears to have failed to repeat it before or since (unseated next time). Is he flattered? Is age catching up with him (now 12 years old)? And if he is that good, why run in a claimer? Claimed after winning over 2m3f (heavy) in November; easily by 14 lengths, gave runner-up Allez L’an Jou 19 lbs. Disappointing only subsequent effort, over hurdles (2m3f very soft) 11½ lengths 4th to Rasique who received 1 lb. River Choice stays 3m6f and has raced on a soft surface.
0.2% 500/1 (150/1) -0.5%36) 265-11 Court By Surprise (10) 10-03 Emma Lavelle 3/10 140 Richie McLernon
Finished 7 lengths 2nd giving 8 lbs to The Young Master in the Badger Ales Trophy (3m½f good-soft) at Wincanton in early November. Awarded race after winner found not qualified to run. Lucky to survive bad blunder at second. Not seen since, but disqualified “winner” went on to win next time off a stone higher mark. Court By Surprise is progressive; was off 2 lbs lower (138) than today’s mark and had been put up 9 lbs for Exeter success (3m good-soft). Jumped better than usual, tracked pace, took it up two out to win easily by 4 lengths, giving 1 lb to According To Trev. Trainer said in December Court By Surprise would be given a holiday to keep him fresh for a Spring campaign. Best away from very soft ground and apparently missed a prep for that reason; although stable also had a lean spell this season, probably with a virus (currently only 3/10). Stays 3m5½f well and may get further, pricked ears and idled in front then rallied when 2nd in London National (good) at Sandown. Travels well in his races but jumping is a worry, gives impression guesses at some and can hit one!
2% 50/1 (50/1) -0%37) 51P4-5 Alvarado (10) 10-03 Fergal O’Brien 8/10 140 Paul Moloney
Went in to many notebooks after last year’s race, jockey Paul Moloney deserves credit for a unique feat of six places in the last six years. But gave (the admittedly quirky) Alvarado a lot to do, within four lengths of Balthazar King at the fourth last, making up a lot of ground run-in once asked for his effort. Should have finished closer to the three in front but that has been allowed for by the Handicapper. Only 7 lbs better with Pineau De Re for 16¼ lengths and 2 lbs for 11¼ with 2nd Balthazar King. Is handicapped as if finishing 2 lengths behind the latter. Although the difference with Chance Du Roy is 3 lbs for the 2¾ between them – CDR is rated as running below form. Alvarado is on a 1 lb worse mark than 2014. Last win came taking advantage of leaders going off too quickly, coming from the clouds to beat Knockara Beau (who gave 13 lbs) 2 lengths (3m3½f good) off 8 lbs lower mark (132). Trained for this, needed his first run since Aintree. Possibly needs some give underfoot to show his best.
2.75% 33/1 (20/1) -2%38) 50-P11 Soll (10) 10-02 David Pipe 5/10 139 Tom Scudamore
Physically imposing, unbeaten in two races for David Pipe/tongue tied. Exeter (3m good-soft) off 9 lb lower mark (130) than here. Missed break slightly, driven along over first three fences, mistake first, raced/jumped sweeter once getting unhindered view of fences, stayed on. Is 8 lbs worse (3 if including runner-up’s claim) with Rebel Rebellion (winner since) for 4 lengths. Soll defied a 9 lbs rise off this (139) mark; winning at Newbury (3m2½f good-soft) gave 7 lb and beat Relax ¾ length, pair 11 clear. First time blinkers helped him to travel well in a prominent position, jumped boldly and well apart from one mistake five out, stayed on. Has been put up 7 lbs to 146 for future handicaps. Aintree experience: Poor 28 lengths 11th over an inadequate 2m5½f (good) in 2014 Topham, when held up and hampered twice. Ran well for a long way in 2013 Grand National, 44 lengths 7th off 7 lb lower (132) mark; prominent, mistakes 5th, The Chair (unsighted), unbalanced Valentines, weakened thereafter. May do better at Aintree now tongue tied/ blinkered for his new stable if able to race prominently. Stays 3m2½f, races as though/bred to stay. By Ballabriggs’ sire Presenting, grand dam Tri Folene 3m2½f winner for Martin Pipe when she was best in headgear.
6.25% 15/1 (22/1) +1.9%39) 0115-P Ely Brown (10) 10-02 Charlie Longsdon 5/10 139 Brian Hughes
Described on trainer’s website as having “numerous problems”. Only been seen once in over a year; since 64 lengths last of 5 finishers in the 2014 Reynoldstown (3m soft). Pulled up over hurdles in January, first time tongue-tie there suggests one of those “problems” is breathing. In to the home straight (pushed along) in 2nd, seemingly out on his feet after the first in the straight. Will he be fit and will he be able to show the sort of form that saw him win the uncompetitive 2014 Grade 2 Towton Novices at Wetherby by 9 lengths? Gave 4 lbs to subsequently improved Eider Chase winner Milborough. Race turned in to a virtual match, disputed/made all. Stayed that 3m1f on heavy as if he’ll be suited by further and was entered in the 4 miler at Cheltenham. Acts on any going and races prominently. Lacks experience for a race like this with just four chase starts.
0.2% 500/1 (100/1) -0.8%40) 3-4132 Royale Knight (9) 10-02 Dr Richard Newland 6/10 139 Brendan Powell
Trainer won the race last year with Pineau De Re and has two live chances this year. Royale Knight an impressive winner of the Durham National (3m6f good-soft) at Sedgefield in October. Lot more to spare than 17 lengths over Lackamon – who gave 11 lbs (less the 2nd’s 7 lb jockey’s claim). Race run at a good pace, just 4 of 12 completed. Held up, jumped a bit slow at times but no noticeable errors. Has been put up 15 lbs from 124 to 139 mark and given the same Pineau De Re treatment of running well over hurdles since. Also winner at Kelso of the 2013 Scottish Borders National (4m good-soft). Difficult to know what to make of the Sedgefield form. Runner-up Lackamon’s jumping has fallen apart since. However, Royale Knight is progressing fast, jumps safely, genuine, consistent, goes on heavy or good (more stamina sapping the better his chance). Related to Paddy’s Return who caused the mellee at the Canal Turn in Red Marauder’s 2001 Grand National. Young rider Brendan Powell seeks to emulate his father (also Brendan) who won in 1988 on Rhyme ‘N’ Reason.
4.5% 22/1 (33/1) +1.56%If there are any non-runners before 9:00am Friday these 4 will enter the race in order:
Number 1 Reserve) 13625 Baileys Concerto (9) 10-02 Dianne Sayer 139
Massively progressive; scoring a five timer, three over fences, two hurdles between September and November and continuing with good place efforts. Going up from a mark of 108 to 139 over fences until disappointing 20 lengths last of 5 finishers. Reportedly coming back from Doncaster with an injury penultimate start. Put up a good performance off a 5 lbs lower mark (134) than here. Finishing 3½ lengths 2nd, receiving 5 lbs from winner If In Doubt in Skybet Chase (3m good-soft). Held up towards the back, travelled well first try at 3m for some time, jumped well apart from slight peck landing over the last but lost minimal impetus. Now 5 lbs worse off with 3rd Night In Milan for 6 lengths. Proven at 2½m and 3m, unlikely to get much further. Sire Bach placed at Group 1 level at both a mile and mile and a quarter. Baileys Concerto’s improvement has come on good or good-soft.Number 2 Reserve) F57U8 Duke Of Lucca (10) 10-02 Philip Hobbs 139
Inconsistent and difficult to win with, but last win came over the Mildmay course at this meeting in 2014, a 3m1f listed handicap (good) off 5 lbs lower (134) mark. Received 12 lbs and beat another dodgepot Vino Griego a head, slight mistake 3 out but otherwise put in a good round of jumping (for once) racing on the outer for a long way, just holding on. Fair 11¾ lengths 5th after several errors in October, gave 8 lbs to winner/stable companion Roalco Des Farges off 3 lbs higher mark (142) than today’s. Ran poorly since including last twice in x-country at Cheltenham, unseating in December. 9½ lengths 8th to Rivage D’Or in March (3m7f good) making minor mistakes/slow jumps and pushed along some way out, weakened home straight. Not a natural jumper and appears to have his own ideas about the game, poor recent strike rate; raced mostly on good or good-soft. Has not finished off his races that well at 3m7f, but rarely does over shorter either.Number 3 Reserve) 38-842 Raz De Maree (10) 10-01 Sandra Hughes (Ireland) 138
Stable won Irish Grand National over Easter. Raz De Maree ran well under a typical Paul Carberry hold up ride, 9 lengths 2nd in Midlands Grand National. Under more attritional conditions – 4m1½f in very soft ground – than he’ll presumably face here. Gave Goonyella 2 lbs plus winning rider’s 3 lbs claim (5 lbs in all). Only 1 lb here if Goonyella makes the cut but winner had a bit in hand. Raz De Maree relished the marathon trip, staying on well after jumping with little fluency, hitting the tops of some and putting in short ones at others. Disappointing 38 lengths 8th in 2014 Grand National (good-soft) setting out to race prominently, mistakes at first two fences plus many others, jumping right-handed at some and hampered at The Chair – meant he ended the first circuit in last place. Jumped a bit better second time around; almost a fence behind when leaders took the final fence, before staying on. Probably does not have enough speed for this unless very soft ground.Number 4 Reserve) 30-6P1 The Package (12) 10-0 David Pipe 137
Obvious this particular 12 year old is still capable. Impressive in Kim Muir (3m2f good) gave 3 lbs and 12 lengths beating to Bless The Wings off this 137 mark (10 lbs higher in future). Travelled with more enthusiasm in first time blinkers, jumped accurately tracking pace on inner, led home turn and powered clear. Aintree experience doesn’t bode well: Penultimate effort in Becher (3m2f good-soft) already pushed along when knocked sideways by loose horse, slow jump Canal Turn, mistake Valentines and pulled up. Also unseated 2010 Grand National and 12th in 2014 (good-soft). Prominent, mistake second and dropped to track pace, mistake five out, with leading group until home turn, 9th at last yet finished 63 lengths behind winner Pineau De Re. Possibly did not stay, but is by one Ascot Gold Cup winner Kayf Tara, out of a mare by another Ardross. More than likely not recovered from (after a year off) 8¾ lengths 3rd to Holywell at Cheltenham (3m½f good-soft) from 4 lbs higher mark (141) than today. Overall record is of inconsistency but far better figures with a longer break, last time came after 96 days, now just 30. May be blinkers can work the oracle again, previous form suggests will struggle to maintain form. Possibly best away from very soft ground.The percentage at the end of each horse’s write up is the chance I believe it has of winning (for ground between good and good-soft) the price is the percentage converted to its fair odds, the price in brackets is the current best available price. Last figure is the percentage worse (-) or better (+) than I rate them.
One horse, Rocky Creek stands out as both having a great chance of winning and outstanding valuethe best bet in the race, 13% is 3.9% better than 10/1 (9.1%).
If you want to keep it simple with ONE WIN BET, make it ROCKY CREEK @ around 10/1 (minimum 15/2)
If you want ONE EACH WAY BET make it ROCKY CREEK @ around 10/1 (minimum 15/2)
If you want one each way bet and other win bets make it (place part as a saver bet, breaking even on the race if Rocky Creek is placed @ 10/1):
58% of your total stake, ie 29% each way Rocky Creek @ around 10/1 (minimum 10/1)
15% win bet The Druids Nephew @ around 14/1 (minimum 13/1)
11% win Soll @ around 22/1 (minimum 18/1)
8% win Royale Knight @ around 33/1 (minimum 28/1)
8% win Saint Are @ around 33/1 (minimum 28/1)If you want five win bets:
36% of your total stake Rocky Creek @ around 10/1 (minimum 15/2)
22% The Druids Nephew @ around 14/1 (minimum 13/1)
17% Soll @ around 22/1 (minimum 18/1)
13% Royale Knight @ around 33/1 (minimum 28/1)
12% Saint Are @ around 33/1 (minimum 28/1)The last two “outsiders” Royale Knight (apparent second string to the trainer’s 2014 winner and ridden by a young lesser known jockey) and Saint Are (from a lesser known trainer and jockey combination) it might pay to back on the TOTE instead of taking a price. TAKE A PRICE in the MORNING of race or BETFAIR prices with the other three; whatever you do, DO NOT take SP!
There are other horses I make “value”, but at the moment not enough margin of error to advise a bet, although some are available at backable prices on Betfair with little liquidity. For a margin of error – consider backing any other horse if available at two prices more than my fair odds. e.g. Many Clouds I have as a fair 3.5% 28/1, so should not be backed @ 33/1, but should @ 40/1 or more.
Value Is EverythingThanks Softie,
2:50 Aintree
52 points @ 9/2 (B365) Whisper* (min 4/1)
48 points @ 5/2 (B365) Zarkandar* (min 5/2)Value Is EverythingJust to put all my Grand National bets in one post without “quote marks”:
19 points @ 25/1 (B365) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)
27 points @ 12/1 (FD) Shutthefrontdoor* (min 10/1)
19 points @ 25/1 (L) Balthazar King* (min 20/1)
11 points @ 50/1 (L) The Druids Nephew* (min 40/1)
6 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)(£167 available)
3 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Many Clouds (min 40/1)(£70 available)
10 points @ 14/1 (Generally) Rocky Creek (min 12/1)
7 points @ 22/1 (B365 NRNB) Godsmejudge (min 22/1)
28 points @ 11/1 (B365, BOG, NRNB) Rocky Creek* (min 8/1)(38 points in all)
19 points @ 23/1 (betfair) Soll* (min 18/1)(£221 available)There are a couple of other main bets am just waiting for an even better price.
Just noticed haven’t put up Royale Knight or Saint Are so:
14 points @ TOTE ODDS Royale Knight*
saver:
5 points @ 33/1 (B365) Saint Are (min 28/1)
5 points @ 33/1Value Is Everything2016 Grand National
21 points @ 25/1 (PP) Many Clouds* (min 18/1)Value Is Everything2016 Grand National
21 points @ 25/1 (PP) Many Clouds* (min 18/1)Handicapper has said he’ll probably give Many Clouds a mark of 167 (7 lbs more than he ran off yesterday). Suspect he’ll race off that mark, without the usual bringing the top weights marks down; inconcievable to raise him less than Saint Are. But even so it seems to under-estimate what he achieved. Jumps impeccably, stays, capable of carrying big weights, goes on good as well as soft and still improving. If 2016 does not attract more top quality horses then it’s likely some of the 40 horses will be out of the handicap (top weight 167 instead of 161) so increasing the chances of top weights winning.
Value Is Everything
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