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4:50 Aintree
54 points @ 5/1 (VC) Uxizandre* (min 9/2)20 points @ 11/4 (PP) Western Warhorse (min 5/2)
After what happened at Cheltenham had WW down as one to oppose next time out, and thought I was going to when working out the 4:50. But it seems the bookmakers have over-reacted. 11/4 is worth finding out whether Western can draw his gun again, at least as a saver. Although will try and keep an eye on his antics in the prelims (possible lay it off if things go wrong.
Looking at oddschecker there doesn’t seem to be that many strong movers around today. Disappointing bookmakers are not paying an extra place in the last race.
I am with you on Western Warhorse being a little bit of value. I say a little because there are obvious negatives in that the level of expectation is that much higher, Aintree is a pretty stiff jumping test and two miles on a stiff track might actually be his optimum. Can’t have Uxixandre as he appeared to find significant improvement without McCoy last time.
Ladbrokes now pushed Western Warhorse out to 9/2! With a horse like this is he’s such a xxx can get himself in such a state beforehand. It’s possible (may be even probable) bookies know something about his travel to Aintree that we don’t. No doubt in my mind the Warhorse is the best equine in this field, trouble is WW’s "mind". I don’t mind having a saver bet on this type, but not a main bet Stilvi.
Uxizandre’s improvement is imo more to do with tactics than jockey. McCoy is never a negative. Though it is possible this track won’t put enough emphasis on stamina, hoping for another attacking ride. Fox Chapel has made the running before, but doesn’t need to, so Uxizandre should get his own way up front. Stable in good form along with Pipe. Ground is similar to Cheltenham too.
Oscar Whiskey has a better record here than Cheltenham. Seems to be priced up as if he’s as good over fences as hurdles, that’s far from certain. Fell last time and not at his best penultimate start. Needs to be taken on at today’s price.
Dodging Bullets has run well more often than not this season, but unproven at this trip and level of ability seems established as just below top class.
Fox Appeal likewise. However, did think of a back to lay bet. I’ve backed him in most of his races this season. Travels well, often looking the likely winner before not finding a great deal under pressure.
Value Is EverythingNice write up on National Ginger one, think I have used up all my luck in the Foxhunters, biggish EW bet Warne at 9/2, EW last years winner (the 2 top jockeys!!!) and SFC
, if Arnaud or On the Bridge places or even better I have had an even better day than opening day at the Festival Nice write up on National Ginger one, think I have used up all my luck in the Foxhunters, biggish EW bet Warne at 9/2, EW last years winner (the 2 top jockeys!!!) and SFC
, if Arnaud or On the Bridge places or even better I have had an even better day than opening day at the Festival Thanks Gdc,
Well done with Warne, think they let Sam go there, but I guess that’s one reason for you backing him.I got out of trouble with Uxizandre, with Rock On Ruby getting a bit back too.
Value Is Everything2014 Grand National
Already Backed:
30 points @ 25/1 (VC NRFB) Teaforthree* (min 14/1)
23 points @ 25/1 (VC NRNB) Godsmejudge* (min 18/1)
10 points @ 50/1 (L) Cape Tribulation* (min 33/1)
20 points @ 25/1 (FD) Monbeg Dude* (min 20/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (betfair PLACE market) Teaforthree (min 3/1)(£83 available)
Had hoped to wait until nearer the time, because he seems a little fragile, just a half bet for now.
10 points @ 25/1 (SJ NRNB) Rocky Creek* (min 18/1)10 points @ 33/1 (L) Balthazar King* (min 25/1)
Another:
14 points @ 20/1 (FD) Rocky Creek* (min 15/1)(24 in total)Value Is Everything3:05 Aintree
47 points @ 5/1 (B365) Rajdhani Express* (min 9/2)Value Is Everything3:05 Aintree
47 points @ 5/1 (B365) Rajdhani Express* (min 9/2)saver:
8 points @ 7/1 (WH) Ballyngour (min 13/2)Value Is Everything2:30 Aintree
71 points @ 11/4 (PP) O’Faolains Boy* (min 9/4)
saver:
22 points @ 100/30 (SJ) Holywell (min 3/1)Two of my three Gold Cup bets.
Value Is Everything3:40 Aintree
24 points @ 20/1 (SJ) Rebel Rebellion* (min 15/1)Value Is Everything3:40 Aintree
24 points @ 20/1 (SJ) Rebel Rebellion* (min 15/1)24 points @ 16/1 (C) Ma Fileule* (min 14/1)
Value Is Everything3:40 Aintree
24 points @ 20/1 (SJ) Rebel Rebellion* (min 15/1)24 points @ 16/1 (C) Ma Fileule* (min 14/1)
31 points @ 12/1 (generally) Standing Ovation* (min 9/1)
You’ll have to wait to get the 12/1, it’s Pricewise but is available "generally", so shouldn’t be too difficult to get. If it is then let me know and will call it 11/1 (betfair).
Value Is Everything3:40 Aintree
24 points @ 20/1 (SJ) Rebel Rebellion* (min 15/1)24 points @ 16/1 (C) Ma Fileule* (min 14/1)
31 points @ 12/1 (generally) Standing Ovation* (min 9/1)
You’ll have to wait to get the 12/1, it’s Pricewise but is available "generally", so shouldn’t be too difficult to get. If it is then let me know and will call it 11/1 (betfair).
5 points @ 43/1 (Betfair) Doeslessthanme (min 33/1)(£28 available)
savers:
9 points @ 10/1 (PP) Double Ross (min 10/1)
6 points @ 16/1 (VC) Lost Legend (min 16/1)Value Is EverythingHi Ginge – right, first things first, can`t let that last comment go – " Ginge yawns"!! Where do you think you are – Facebook??
You`ll be telling us you`ve just taken the rubbish out next for flips sake!!
Well done with Uxizandre yesterday, particularly pleasing that he grabbed a grade 1 having watched his career develop around Newbury and Plumpton earlier.
The theorising would hold little little interest for you as it`s not a value based concept, more a steady drip method really, but we shall see.
Regarding that day you missed at Newbury recently, i did intend to post a message on here, went to do so then lost internet connection, so thought sod it………..thought it might be the old blood sugar count, but glad it`s okay.
Good luck rating Golan,not sure what to think myself other than previously posted really.
Laters
2014 Grand National
Already Backed:
30 points @ 25/1 (VC NRFB) Teaforthree* (min 14/1)
23 points @ 25/1 (VC NRNB) Godsmejudge* (min 18/1)
10 points @ 50/1 (L) Cape Tribulation* (min 33/1)
20 points @ 25/1 (FD) Monbeg Dude* (min 20/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (betfair PLACE market) Teaforthree (min 3/1)(£83 available)
10 points @ 25/1 (SJ NRNB) Rocky Creek* (min 18/1)10 points @ 33/1 (L) Balthazar King* (min 25/1)
Another:
14 points @ 20/1 (FD) Rocky Creek* (min 15/1)(24 in total)21 points @ 31/1 (Betfair) Big Shu* (min 20/1)(£40 available)
Value Is Everything3:40 Aintree
24 points @ 20/1 (SJ) Rebel Rebellion* (min 15/1)24 points @ 16/1 (C) Ma Fileule* (min 14/1)
Well done Ginge what an easy winner ….Ma Fileule!!
2014 Grand National
Already Backed:
30 points @ 25/1 (VC NRFB) Teaforthree* (min 14/1)
23 points @ 25/1 (VC NRNB) Godsmejudge* (min 18/1)
10 points @ 50/1 (L) Cape Tribulation* (min 33/1)
20 points @ 25/1 (FD) Monbeg Dude* (min 20/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (betfair PLACE market) Teaforthree (min 3/1)(£83 available)
10 points @ 25/1 (SJ NRNB) Rocky Creek* (min 18/1)
10 points @ 33/1 (L) Balthazar King* (min 25/1)
Another:
14 points @ 20/1 (FD) Rocky Creek* (min 15/1)(24 in total)
21 points @ 31/1 (Betfair) Big Shu* (min 20/1)(£40 available)
NOW:
saver:
12 points @ 13.5/1 (Betfair) Long Run (min 13/1)(£7918 available)Value Is Everything3:40 Aintree
24 points @ 20/1 (SJ) Rebel Rebellion* (min 15/1)24 points @ 16/1 (C) Ma Fileule* (min 14/1)
Well done Ginge what an easy winner ….Ma Fileule!!
Thanks Baynet
Made up for the 37/1 second at Cheltenham. Mentioned afterwards how well Ma Fileule jumped (bar one). National fences used to be for good, safe jumpers, now it’s the good, bold jumpers have the advantage.
As you know, she wasn’t that well handicapped on Timeform figures, but one of very few in the race still improving.
Value Is Everything
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