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Well spotted with the Haydock race Ginge., never considered that a possibilty.
Yep, see you Weds., fish and chips may well be off the menu still though, unless they`ve moved the outlet.
Might even have to consider something healthy
Fish and chips is my only weakness Softie and only have them at Newbury. Major misery Copper King not in action at the Challow meet. Mobile outlet just not the same. Heard they were considering the TOTE kiosk between Tatts and Members for F&C, though whether that’s big enough?
Might need to smuggle in my famous home made bread – healthy option sandwiches.
Value Is Everything2:25 Newbury
41 points @ 4/1 (B365) Restless Harry* (min 4/1)32 points @ 13/2 (Sky) Financial Climate* (min 6/1)
Value Is Everything2:25 Newbury
41 points @ 4/1 (B365) Restless Harry* (min 4/1)32 points @ 13/2 (Sky) Financial Climate* (min 6/1)
Saver:
12 points @ 7/1 (PP) Tullyraine (min 7/1)Value Is Everything2:25 Newbury
41 points @ 4/1 (B365) Restless Harry* (min 4/1)32 points @ 13/2 (Sky) Financial Climate* (min 6/1)
Saver:
12 points @ 7/1 (PP) Tullyraine (min 7/1)7 points @ 14/1 (VC) Ringa Bay (min 14/1)
Value Is EverythingI’ve had bet/s in the 1:20 and 1:50 on betfair, but liquidity is now poor so can’t put them up yet…
Value Is Everything1:50 Newbury
57 points @ 15/8 (SJ) Brother Brian* (min 15/8)26 points @ 10/1 (Sky) The Ould Lad* (min 10/1)
Not got much time this morning. You’ll get better on Betfair for bits and pieces.
Value Is EverythingIncluding BOG (5/1 instead of 4/1) and 10p R4 (9/1) a small deficit of -40.5 points today.
2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points2013/14 Season so far +405.6 points
Total Thread Profit +6428.45 points
Value Is EverythingIrish Champion Hurdle
40 points @ 4/1 (Betfair) Jezki* (min 7/2)(£60 available)
40 points @ 4/1 (VC) Our Conor* (min 7/2)Value Is EverythingIrish Champion Hurdle
40 points @ 4/1 (Betfair) Jezki* (min 7/2)(£60 available)
40 points @ 4/1 (VC) Our Conor* (min 7/2)Taking on Hurricane Fly with a 6/4 chance around Leopardstown?
Have you got yourself some of that coke they’re talking about up in the Horse Racing section?
Irish Champion Hurdle
40 points @ 4/1 (Betfair) Jezki* (min 7/2)(£60 available)
40 points @ 4/1 (VC) Our Conor* (min 7/2)Taking on Hurricane Fly with a 6/4 chance around Leopardstown?
Have you got yourself some of that coke they’re talking about up in the Horse Racing section?
I had some coke today at Newbury! They sell it openly. Snorted it up my nose. Took my breath away; the fizz can do that!Yes THM, 6/4
Don’t expect Annie Power and Un De Sceaux to run unless Hurricane has a mishap.
Captain Cee Bee is pacemaker for Jezki and flattered by his proximity last time, the only horse to go a sensible pace, a fair 1000/1 shot here.
Thousand Stars doesn’t have the pace to figure at 2 miles any more, though Townend should’ve been investigated as a non-trier, going so slow and making it a test of speed on his "stayer", even so… a fair 100/1 shot.
Hurricane Fly obviously has the best chance by far, but in my opinion vastly over-estimated, 67% (1/2), no way! This time around I’d say only just a "probable" winner. So more like 53 or 54% at most, a fair 10/11. Which leaves Jezki and Our Conor with around 46 or 45% between them.Here’s the Ryanair Hurdle…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkcCn9yeVJ8
Hurricane Fly has a proven turn of foot, speedy. Advantaged by everyone ignoring the rank outsider Captain Cee Bee in 20 length lead. AP rode a poor race, should’ve gone with his stable companion… and then managed to get blocked in/hampered. Without which he’d have been closer to the favourite at the line (as it was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths). Jezki should be better suited by a truly run race…
So too should Our Conor. Suprised he didn’t go to the front or at least keep tabs with the leader. Goes well from/near the front and Stamina/sustained pace is key. Though may be they did not want a hard race/knew Our Conor wasn’t quite 100% fit first time up. Rather have Cooper back aboard, but can’t have everything.
When horses meet again, punters know what the "form" suggests will happen. Therefore, most will go for the one who won last time. Which results in the ones who should not win "on form" being better value than their probable "fair odds". In this case you’ve also got the added "Hurricane Fly effect", fact he’s won so many Grade 1’s, punters expect him to win no matter what… Again resulting in an even more slanted book.
Did think I should’ve backed one and save on the other THM. But agonised on the decision and just could not decide which was the better value.
Value Is EverythingGood post, I agree it’s likely we’ll have the same field as in the Ryanair Hurdle. Your argument is good but I’d counter that Hurricane Fly stays very well and a strongly run race will come to him just the same.
Do you ever lay horses?
Here you have backed a 6/4 chance (40%), which you believe to be roughly a 6/5 chance (45.45%). That’s a difference of 5.45%.
You estimate Hurricane Fly’s chance at between 5/6 and 10/11, let’s say 53% on the button for arguments sake. Yet you could probably lay him on Betfair at 4/6 (60%), a difference of 7% with your odds.
Would there not then be better ‘value’ in laying Hurricane Fly than backing Jezki and Our Conor?
Excellent point THM, what a berk I am!
It certainly is better value to lay @ 4/6 than to back two horses @ a combined 6/4.
Being the same price taken.
Going to look a bit of a fool if by some miracle one of the outsiders win. Or for that matter, Huricane does not run and one of the other Mullins horses takes its place. Just shows, very rarely do I back two horses both @ 4/1 to win the same amount in a contest where the favourite takes out so much of the book. Usually back one and save on the other. You’re right, although it has been known… am not used to laying horses, tending to be better at finding the over-priced than under. So may be I’ve got the race wrong THM? Certainly don’t deserve to get this one right!
Value Is Everything
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