- This topic has 2,646 replies, 45 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
British Trainers Championship
23 points @ 10/1 (VC) Mahmood Al ZarooniSaver:
16 points @ 6/4 (VC) Aidan O’BrienValue Is EverythingBritish Trainers Championship
23 points @ 10/1 (VC) Mahmood Al ZarooniSaver:
16 points @ 6/4 (VC) Aidan O’BrienMahmood has a couple of Classic fillies Discourse and Lyric Of Light, latter may be able to double up in Guineas and Oaks. Mandean hasn’t been ruled out of the 2000 Guineas if very soft. But far more likely to thrive over middle distances and possibly the Ledger too. Swedish Sailor could be another for the Blue Riband. Of course they have Camalot, Maybe and hopefully Wading of O’Brien’s, let alone Power, Imperial Monarch, Kissed etc to beat. Aidan deserves to be a short priced favourite. Ex-Botti Excelebration should win his fair share of mile Group 1’s, especially once Frankel is stepped up in trip. Coolmore’s Champion Stayer Fame And Glory is devervedly favourite for Ascot, however Godolphin have a strong team in that department with Opinion Poll, ex-French Be Fabulous and ex-Johnston Colour Vision, although the last of those is unfortunately with Bin Surroor. Nephrite is in the Green corner for sprinters, but the Blues have the promising ex-Aussie Sepoy.
Looking at the other trainers, Hannon doesn’t seem to have the firepower. Unless Trumpet Major can win the Guineas and they can get Harbour Watch back to his best. Strong Suit is his best older horse, but will have to take on Frankel and Exelebration, unless dropping down in trip. The Everleigh handler will need to win a lot of Sales races to keep his title this year.
Quite why Stoutey is shorter in the market than Zarooni baffles me. Apart from a few middle distance horses who could improve, headed by Sea Moon, don’t see many potentially top class horses.
Be great to see Sir Henry win it, but if he couldn’t do it last year, can’t see it happening this, even with Frankel. His full brother will need to win the Derby to have any chance imo. Yet he’s around the same price as the selection.Value Is EverythingAscot Gold Cup
40 points @ 7/1 (WH) Saddler’s Rock20 points @ 14/1 (b365) Opinion Poll
18 points @ 16/1 (WH) Colour Visionoops!
Backed these before many bookmakers put up prices and Stan James now offer 25/1 Colour Vision so another:8 points @ 25/1 (SJ) Colour Vision
Value Is EverythingAlready backed:
18 points @ 20/1 (WH) Harbour Watch
17 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Fencing
27 points @ 12/1 (L) Trumpet Major
Saver:
16 points @ 5/2 (WH) CamalotNow:
9 points @ 5/2 (betfair place market) Trumpet MajorMay seem a strange bet, but if Camalot wins and Trumpet Major is placed, then I break even.
Value Is EverythingAlready backed:
18 points @ 20/1 (WH) Harbour Watch
17 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Fencing
27 points @ 12/1 (L) Trumpet Major
Saver:
16 points @ 5/2 (WH) CamalotNow:
9 points @ 5/2 (betfair place market) Trumpet MajorMay seem a strange bet, but if Camalot wins and Trumpet Major is placed, then I break even.
5 points @ 59/1 (betfair) Mandean
2 points @ 5/2 (betfair place market) Trumpet MajorValue Is Everything3:10 Kempton
36 points @ 5/1 (PP) Skilful*
22 points @ 9/4 (WH) Side Glance
13 points @ 14/1 (WH) ScarfValue Is EverythingStarting this season, where I have more than one bet in a race I will nominate the best bet with a "*" and have a seperate total as if I was only backing one horse.
Value Is EverythingFinally Ginger we can compete with you at equal odds, most of us backing only one horse,…..that’s fair Ginger….
Good luck during new flat season….3:45 Kempton
40 points @ 13/2 (C) Colour Vision*
18 points @ 9/4 (L) ThimaarValue Is EverythingFinally Ginger we can compete with you at equal odds, most of us backing only one horse,…..that’s fair Ginger….
Good luck during new flat season….
Thanks for the good wishes Kburza, same to you. I didn’t know backing more than one horse in a race was cheating! It’s all about profit at the end of the year/decade/century; whichever way a punter invests.
However, there is a possibility or even probability that I am backing too many horses.
This should tell me whether it would be advantageous to back the very best (what I consider) value in the race, rather than backing all the value in a race on a sliding scale. There will be some races where I can’t split them and still * two horses.Value Is Everything3:45 Kempton
40 points @ 13/2 (C) Colour Vision*
18 points @ 9/4 (L) ThimaarThought about putting these bets on last night. Colour Vision would’ve been a shorter price, Thimaar far better. Shouldn’t really back Thimaar at 9/4 (too short). Wouldn’t like it if he won without having something on it; having thought him value last night without getting involved.
Value Is EverythingIt’s not about cheating, but competition….
Nothing wrong with backing 2 or 3 horses in race, but backing half or 3/4 runners looks ridiculous..
Probably most of us are used to bet backup combinations in addition to primary selection…..It’s not about cheating, but competition….
Nothing wrong with backing 2 or 3 horses in race, but backing half or 3/4 runners looks ridiculous..
Probably most of us are used to bet backup combinations in addition to primary selection….."Competition" between punters does not interest me in the slightest Kburza. Only thing that matters in betting is the age old competition between punter and bookmaker. Am not in competition with you or anyone else on here.
With any of the races I bet on in the past, you can easily judge me on the main bets, if that is what you want to do; by ignoring the savers etc. Can’t remember when I backed 3/4 of the field, but betting for (over all) profit is never "rediculous".
Value Is EverythingFirst part of Results section just so that I can have a profit/loss for 2012 “Main Bets”
6:00 Meydan
50 points @ 3/1 (WH) Cirrus Des Aigles 1st Return 200 pointsMB +150
Days Main bet profit
+150 points
1:35 Newbury
34 points @ 8/1 (SJ) Cheveton (SP 13/2)
MB -342:40 Newbury
Sans Loi non-runner4:25 Newbury
18 points each way @ 12/1 (b365) Safarjal (SP 8/1) 3rd Return 61.2 pointsMB +25.2
4:55 Newbury
36 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Gold Rally (SP 9/2)
MB -36Days Main bet deficit
2:00 Newbury
61 points @ 2/1 (SJ) Harris Tweed (SP 6/4) 1st Return (incl 10p R4) 170.8 pointsMB +109.8
2:35 Newbury
58 points @ 7/4 (b365) Best Terms (SP 5/2)
-583:45 Newbury
25 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Mull Of Killoch (SP 11/1)
9 points @ 49/1 (betfair) George Guru (SP 25/1)
5 points @ 64/1 (betfair) Take It To The Max (SP 33/1)
17 points @ 14/1 (WH) Global Village (SP 14/1) 3rd
MB -564:20 Newbury
53 points @ 3.2/1 (betfair) Minimise Risk (SP 15/8) 1st Return (incl 34.1% reduction factor) 164.77
17 points @ 23/1 (betfair) King Of Dudes (SP 6/1)MB +94.77
Days Main Bet profit
+90.57 points
Main Bet Profit so far +195.77 points
Already included all above in the other Results.
2:30 Sandown
31 points @ 11/2 (b365)Penitent
(SP 5/1)
1st
Return 201.5 points
36 points @ 5/1 (b365) Questioning (SP 5/1)2nd
(Side Glance already a non-runner when bets struck)
(67)+134.5
MB +134.5
Nice when the race works out as you envisage. Famous Name hasn’t run well when travelling away from Ireland, even on his beloved soft ground. Dubawi Gold had never ran on going like it and Librano was never going to stay a mile on it. Proven performers fought it out.
Days Stakes 67, Days Return 134.5, Days Profit
+134.5
Main Bet Profit
+134.5 points
3:45 Sandown
Hunters Light and Retreive both non-runners so only the saver bet ran, no main bet..
17 points @ 7/2 (FD) Poet (SP 15/8)2nd
-17
By the time Godolphin’s pair came out Poet’s price had gone so couldn’t back it again. They finished out on their feet and all who took part will need time to recover.Days Stakes 17, Days Return 0, Days Deficit
No main bets.
3:10 Kempton
36 points @ 5/1 (PP) Skilful* (SP 4/1)
22 points @ 9/4 (WH) Side Glance (SP 11/4)3rd
13 points @ 14/1 (WH) Scarf (SP 14/1)
-71
MB -36
Two main bets took each other on up front so form best ignored for the selections, first two home dropped out the back early.3:45 Kempton
40 points @ 13/2 (C)Colour Vision*
(SP 9/2)
1st
Return 300 points
18 points @ 9/4 (L) Thimaar (SP 5/2)3rd
(58)
+242
MB +260Again a race that favoured those held up, but even so Colour Vision impressive, showing improved form to break the track record eased down. One of my ante-post trio for the Gold Cup, halved in price today and still looks value at double figure odds. Red Cadeaux ran well, surprised to see he’s not entered at Ascot, so Melbourne Cup runner up will probably be off on his travels.
Days Stakes 129, Days Return 300, Days Profit
+171 points
Main Bets
+224 points
2012 Total Main Bets only +554.27 Profit
This post Stakes 213, Return 434.5,
Profit +221.5
2012 Stakes 684
2012 Return 1181.272012 Profit +497.27 points
Total Stakes 14879.13, Total Return 17055.84,
Total Profit +2176.71 points
Profit On Stakes
14.63%
Value Is Everything1000 Guineas
28 points @ 14/1 (PP) Wading31 points @ 8.2/1 (betfair) Lyric Of Light
Value Is Everything
@ competition- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.