- This topic has 46 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
After the Mullins fees rise, the latest man to arouse the ire of the O’Learys is Phil Smith and his ‘weights rise’.
Toys once again have been chucked from prams and it looks like Don Poli joins Outlander as a NR in the National.
The O’Learys come across as very petty individuals. I reckon they’re bitter about the lack of star quality in their ranks relative to other owners, despite the massive number of horses they have.
Smith is on ATR now with Matt Chapman. Interesting stuff.
Absolutely brilliant. Phil Smith was fantastic he completely owned Matt Chapman. How he didn’t throw something at Chappers I don’t know. Top bloke and he and Matt bounce off each other, makes wonderful viewing.
Typical of Kelleway to make a crass contribution at the end of the show. Everything I’ve seen of that woman makes me think she is absolutely horrible. When she’s on Sunday Forum I literally turn it off. Can’t stand the woman.
Kelleway comes across as a complete pig alright.
In relation to Gigginstown, they have no argument with Don Poli he deserves to be carrying that weight.However there is a bigger point to be raised here in relation to handicap marks in Britain for Irish horses. Phil smith regardless of what he says clearly thinks the irish handicapper does a poor job with Gordon Elliot.
If it was just a case that Irish ratings and english ratings are out of line then it should be a standard 6/7 pound rise for all irish horses, not 1 pound for some and 14 for others. This shows that Phil Smith believes that Gordon Elliot gets away with non triers in Ireland, whereas by not punishing willie mullins or noel meade or henry de bromhead to the same extent he is saying that they run their horses on their merits whereas Gordon looks for low handicap marks. The Irish handicapper is clearly letting elliot away with this non trying, whereas Phil Smith is not, and in relation to Mega Fortune and Diamond King as two good examples Smith has basically proven that the irish handicapper is too lenient with elliots horses.However Phil smith also appears to be trying to ensure that some irish horses cant qualify for races at cheltenham by either giving them marks too low or marks too high and this appears to be deliberate. For example there is no reason why smith would want to rate the Crafty Butcher 4 pounds LOWER than his irish mark other than he wants to make it very difficult for the horse to have a high enough mark to qualify for a handicap at cheltenham or the grand national, he is racing off 134 in Ireland but has a grand national mark of 130 (9st 4) If smith were to have given him his irish mark plus the usual 3/4 pounds for being irish trained, then that horse would be down to carry 9st 12 in the grand national and thus have a realistic chance of getting a run in the race. He is rising all other irish horses yet he lowers the crafty butcher by 3, despite the fact that he has run very well in big handicaps and is clearly already well handicapped. This shows a bias towards trying to prevent irish horses from winning big handicaps in britain or even getting an opportunity to run in them. Rashaan is another example.
So O Leary have no case in relation to Don Poli in my opinion, and Phil Smith is clearly better at seeing through elliot than the irish handicapper is, but smith in other cases such as rashaan and the crafty butcher showing that he is deliberately trying to prevent horses from being able to run in or win certain races, and this isnt the purpose of handicapping.
Ask the handicapper is great and the two produce brilliant debate.
However as a Matt Chapman defender I was really really disappointed he didn’t push Phil more on the crafty butcher situation.
Every time Phil comes on he defends his decision to raise Irish horses in the handicap. He states that the Irish handicapper does a great job for Irish handicaps but the scale used is not in sync with Britain so he needs to raise the Irish horses to bring it in line. I’ve no real problem with that if the scale is off. However what he done with the crafty butcher was disgusting. To prevent the horse creeping in at the bottom of the handicap for the Kim Muir he lowered the horse a few pounds (3 I think) to make sure he couldn’t get in. Obviously the crafty butcher would have had a huge chance off bottom weight. Phils attitude was basically – if they don’t like it run him again before the festival weights are announced and i’ll judge it again. They shouldn’t have had to do that – they most likely wanted the horse fresh for the festival instead of running a few weeks beforehand somewhere on poor ground. Also if he goes out and wins on this mark which is lower than it should be he’ll go up quite a bit in the handicap and no longer be close to the bottom weight.
Phil has basically stuck up a big you are not welcome sign for connections to this horse and its disgusting. Matt didn’t do his job/research in not grilling him more on this one.When did he drop The Crafty Butcher 3lbs? I thought he said he’d raised the horse 5lbs from (127) to (132) for finishing 2nd…? The horse then ran again but failed to complete…had it completed and won would it have got in? Is that Phil Smiths fault it fell?
Also, if we use Matt Chapmans theory that he treats Mullins and Elliott different to the tune of 5lbs Don Poli is better in than people think going on last years weights…
Sadly, Ask The Handicapper is little more than a pantomime show. Chapman plays the buffoon and makes Smith look good. I am sure this was all agreed before the shows started.
When did he drop The Crafty Butcher 3lbs? I thought he said he’d raised the horse 5lbs from (127) to (132) for finishing 2nd…? The horse then ran again but failed to complete…had it completed and won would it have got in? Is that Phil Smiths fault it fell?
Also, if we use Matt Chapmans theory that he treats Mullins and Elliott different to the tune of 5lbs Don Poli is better in than people think going on last years weights…
The crafty butchers Irish chase mark is 134. Smith gave him a rating of 130 for the grand national and probably any handicap in Cheltenham too in order to ensure he is too low to get a run.
Since that statement calls into question Phil Smith’s integrity, would you say that to his face? The idea that the official handicapper should rate a horse to ‘ensure he is too low to get a run’ is absurd.
Since that statement calls into question Phil Smith’s integrity, would you say that to his face? The idea that the official handicapper should rate a horse to ‘ensure he is too low to get a run’ is absurd.
Well if its absurd then what’s the explanation as to why this horse was reduced by 4 pounds despite him increasing all other Irish horses?
When did he drop The Crafty Butcher 3lbs? I thought he said he’d raised the horse 5lbs from (127) to (132) for finishing 2nd…? The horse then ran again but failed to complete…had it completed and won would it have got in? Is that Phil Smiths fault it fell?
Also, if we use Matt Chapmans theory that he treats Mullins and Elliott different to the tune of 5lbs Don Poli is better in than people think going on last years weights…
The crafty butchers Irish chase mark is 134. Smith gave him a rating of 130 for the grand national and probably any handicap in Cheltenham too in order to ensure he is too low to get a run.
Ah right! So he didn’t drop him then and it’s all Phil Smiths fault he’s not high enough rated to get in at Cheltenham….nothing to do with the horse not being able to win in his three starts this season? He’s been given two questionable rides and failed to complete on the other yet it’s all the fault of big bad Phil…seriously?
Oh dear, maybe they will run Don Poli on his merit and try win the Gold Cup now.
Dream on, cowboys……
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Smith is on ATR now with Matt Chapman. Interesting stuff.
Absolutely brilliant. Phil Smith was fantastic he completely owned Matt Chapman. How he didn’t throw something at Chappers I don’t know. Top bloke and he and Matt bounce off each other, makes wonderful viewing.
Typical of Kelleway to make a crass contribution at the end of the show. Everything I’ve seen of that woman makes me think she is absolutely horrible. When she’s on Sunday Forum I literally turn it off. Can’t stand the woman.
Couldn’t agree more re Smith and Chapman, I love watching them debate/argue. I think Smith manages to stay so calm because he knows Chapman actually deeply respects him and knows the prodding is just for the tv entertainment. Matt often goes out of his way to explain how well-respected Smith is around the world in terms of handicapping and a lot of the time is playing devils advocate rather than genuinely disagreeing with him.
And I have no problem with Phil Smith raising Elliot’s horses more than other trainers’ runners, it shows he doesn’t want to be mugged off and though it’s not consistent across all trainers; it shows he has an opinion and that’s something you certainly need in this game.
A number of interesting point on this thread, here’s my taken on some of them:
Mega Fortune
I believer Smith put Mega Fortune on 146 when entered for a recent Cheltenham handicap. Regardless of what Mega Fortune did on Sunday, that rating seems very high to me for what the horse had done – here is the key for me, horses should be handicapped on what they have done, not what they might do. If Mega Fortune was on 146, what did Smith have Baupaume and Landofhopeandglory on? Let’s say 150. Mega Fortune turned the form around with Baupaume at the weekend, to the tune of 5.25 lengths. Did Mega Fortune improve or did Baupaume run below par. The latter is possible but it’s more likely that Mega Fortune improved due to the application of cheek-pieces. Does that make Mega Fortune a 155 horse now? That’s the rating Defi Du Seuil is currently on, so it’s surprising that he is almost three times the price of the Triumph hurdle favourite.Don Poli, Outlander and the Grand National
Smith has put Outlander up 3 lbs and Don Poli up 2 lbs. In isolation that’s not a major issue for me. The issue I have is that for years now Smith has condensed the handicap in the Grand National to encourage the horses near the head of the weights to run. This is completely ludicrous imo but it’s what has been done. He has abandoned that approach this year and actually raised the ratings of these to horses – where is the consistency? The condensing of the Grand National weights is totally crazy for me and I don’t know how they get away with it.The handicapping of the Elliott horses in general
I think it was Tony Keenan who produced statistics last year on the treatment of the Elliott horses. Thewexfordman above compliments Smith for doing a better job of handicapping them than Noel O’Brien. The problem I have with that is that the handicapper should rate a horse on what they have done, not what they might do or may be capable of. If Elliott is not running horses on their merits then it is up to the Stewards to act, not the handicappers.The Crafty Butcher
Now this is a strange one. The horse runs a somewhat unlucky second in one of the most competitive handicaps of the season and Smith was seemingly not that impressed. Absurd though it may sound to Robnorth, the fact that the horse would likely have went off favourite for the Kim Muir and now won’t get into the race seems more than a little coincidental to me.The ‘scale’
Kingsprintersacre mentions the handicap scale between the UK and Ireland being out of kilter, but for me the problem is there is no scale. If there was a standard rise in rating for an Irish horse entered in the UK I don’t think anyone would be complaining, but some horses (and trainers) go up a hell of a lot more than others and some horses are even dropped. A few weeks ago I saw Smith on ATR with the ‘Noel O’Brien does a great job etc’ stuff and am struggling to see how he can stand by those comments given the difference in ratings.The situation and system is very unsatisfactory for me.
And I have no problem with Phil Smith raising Elliot’s horses more than other trainers’ runners, it shows he doesn’t want to be mugged off and though it’s not consistent across all trainers; it shows he has an opinion and that’s something you certainly need in this game.
That’s not the point in handicapping though. He is meant to rate the horses on what they have done
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.