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I apologise if this sort of thread has been done before I assume it probably has on a site like this but hey ho. I’m not sure if this post is in the right section either but if not I’m sure there are more than capable moderators who will ensure it finds its correct home.
I was hoping to get to know a bit about the forumites by learning whether you are mainly flat lovers or jumps aficionados or both?
I don’t come from a racing family as such but I do have a couple of uncles who are into the sport and both are equally enough keen on both codes. Another one of my family members is a flat man.
Myself I prefer the flat. I do watch the jumps game but I don’t bet on it all my betting is done on the flat. I am not a professional punter, I don’t have the funds to do that but I do bet to make a profit on the turf flat season which I am able to do – at least I have been up till now. As such I don’t back horses I necessarily think will win a race, it’s all about the price for me.
Are there any people on here who are professional punters or are you all keen amateurs? Do any of you work in the racing industry. How long have you been into the sport.
I apologise if any of you find any of these questions intrusive, I’d just like to get to know about my fellow racing enthusiasts.
There was a thread last year that may go someway to your question. Title was:
Who is your typical racing fan? (a survey, if I may)Hello and welcome to the forum IBRacing.
This was the latest thread relevant to your interests although I wonder how dated it may be. Forums being revolving doors and such…
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 04&start=0
To answer your questions, I’m very firmly in the jumps camp and have been since I started watching the sport. Kingman may pique my interest but I’m much more eagerly anticipating Punchestown, Auteuil, the first UK juvenile hurdles in June and next year’s Cheltenham Festival. No traces of racing in my family and I pretty much never bet on the horses as it compromises my enjoyment of the sport.
There are one or two industry cogs who frequent these boards as well as a certain poster who swears by value.
Like anywhere else on the internet, lurk around and make yourself comfortable.
Exactly what he said ^^^^^
Kingman and horses like Frankel may have made me go "ooooooo!" but my main love will always be the jumps. I’ve followed it since I was a kid, but none of the rest of my family give a monkeys about racing. I don’t bet either.Welcome IBRacing total jumps fan here, looking forward to Punchestown at the end of the month, then planning to have a rest until September/October. Roll on the autumn/winter!
Phil’s reply made me laugh ., it seems lots of folks give the flat season the elbow , I can see why , its mostly a bit sterile . whereas the jumps brings back old pals to entertain us all over again
I am horrified to admit that the AW dross has blunted my appetite somewhat …given the same bunch of bent people participate , still with wow moments like Kingman yesterday ., I am sure the turf flat season will excite us all
3 days to the Craven
for the record I have’nt had a bet on the jumps for years but I enjoy it immensely ….
imo
Ricky
I apologise if this sort of thread has been done before I assume it probably has on a site like this but hey ho. I’m not sure if this post is in the right section either but if not I’m sure there are more than capable moderators who will ensure it finds its correct home.
I was hoping to get to know a bit about the forumites by learning whether you are mainly flat lovers or jumps aficionados or both?
I don’t come from a racing family as such but I do have a couple of uncles who are into the sport and both are equally enough keen on both codes. Another one of my family members is a flat man.
Myself I prefer the flat. I do watch the jumps game but I don’t bet on it all my betting is done on the flat. I am not a professional punter, I don’t have the funds to do that but I do bet to make a profit on the turf flat season which I am able to do – at least I have been up till now. As such I don’t back horses I necessarily think will win a race, it’s all about the price for me.
Are there any people on here who are professional punters or are you all keen amateurs? Do any of you work in the racing industry. How long have you been into the sport.
I apologise if any of you find any of these questions intrusive, I’d just like to get to know about my fellow racing enthusiasts.
Welcome IB,
I’ve been in to the sport since watching Red Rum finish 2nd in the 1976 Grand National; when still in short trousers. Loved animals and horses before then. Mother says I wanted to be a jockey before that, when knee high to a pony.I love both codes equally for opposite reasons, well almost equally. More horse deaths over jumps means I slightly favour the flat. Jumps are great because they race for more seasons, getting to know the horses. Flat brilliant because of a changing personel, every year is different. But codes have one thing in comman, the horses.
You are so right, "it’s all about the price". Know the prices as percentages and you’re half way there. The only way to profit is to find value. Keep at it IB; after many years of making a profit, then going part time, have now given up "work" completely. Haven’t been doing it for long enough to prove myself yet. Don’t particularly like the term "professional gambler" anyway, it’s about investing.
Value Is EverythingHi everyone. Thank you all for taking the time to reply to me.
Gingertipster from what you write it looks like you are in a position now that I would like to get to eventually. I don’t know whether or not I will reach the stage you’re at but I hope to by the time I’m 50 so I have given myself ten years to achieve that goal. Up to now I can make a consistent profit but nowhere near enough to live on so it’s about steadily building the bank.
If you have any advice for me I would be very interested to read it. I understand completely the concept of value and of percentage chance. I create a tissue for the type of races I specialise in and always work to a 100% book.
And here we see, a bromance is born…
Phil’s reply made me laugh ., it seems lots of folks give the flat season the elbow , I can see why , its mostly a bit sterile . whereas the jumps brings back old pals to entertain us all over again
I was thinking the same. Cigar certainly springs to mind.
But yeah, there are plenty of flat connoisseurs here for one baffling reason or another.
Hi everyone. Thank you all for taking the time to reply to me.
Gingertipster from what you write it looks like you are in a position now that I would like to get to eventually. I don’t know whether or not I will reach the stage you’re at but I hope to by the time I’m 50 so I have given myself ten years to achieve that goal. Up to now I can make a consistent profit but nowhere near enough to live on so it’s about steadily building the bank.
If you have any advice for me I would be very interested to read it. I understand completely the concept of value and of percentage chance. I create a tissue for the type of races I specialise in and always work to a 100% book.
Not sure what you want to know IB, is it the practicalities of being a "pro" or advice on how to study?
What form books do you use?
Ginge
Value Is EverythingHi everyone. Thank you all for taking the time to reply to me.
Gingertipster from what you write it looks like you are in a position now that I would like to get to eventually. I don’t know whether or not I will reach the stage you’re at but I hope to by the time I’m 50 so I have given myself ten years to achieve that goal. Up to now I can make a consistent profit but nowhere near enough to live on so it’s about steadily building the bank.
If you have any advice for me I would be very interested to read it. I understand completely the concept of value and of percentage chance. I create a tissue for the type of races I specialise in and always work to a 100% book.
Not sure what you want to know IB, is it the practicalities of being a "pro" or advice on how to study?
What form books do you use?
Ginge
I’m not sure there’s anything in particular Ginge. I’m Ok with study and form, I compile my own ratings and if I need a form search I use Racing Post online.
Practicalities – Just if there’s anything that you’ve picked up along the way that you’d never previously considered or anything that is considered to be beneficial that isn’t really ……….
If there’s nothing, that’s fine.
I’m not sure there’s anything in particular Ginge. I’m Ok with study and form, I compile my own ratings and if I need a form search I use Racing Post online.
Practicalities – Just if there’s anything that you’ve picked up along the way that you’d never previously considered or anything that is considered to be beneficial that isn’t really ……….
If there’s nothing, that’s fine.
Not sure I can help you that much IB. Tried my own ratings when I first started and couldn’t keep them up to date or accurate enough. Although you may well be more successful, what works for one does not work for another. If I remember rightly, I Believe tb racing is successful doing his own ratings, he might be able to give you a few pointers.
I get Timeform Race Passes; there’s a free sample of the Nell Gwyn Stakes if you want to take a look.
https://www.timeform.com/racing/RacePasses/Home
One thing that I believe gives me a bit of an edge and would advise any punter to take in to consideration when assessing value – is Trainers In Form. Here’s something I prepared earlier:
Trainers In Form:
One win does not make an in form trainer. In my opinion it is one of the most overly/wrongly used sayings in racing circles. It should not be judged purely on winners either, rather let price be a guide. Looking at a trainer’s recent record; any horse that started 33/1 who was placed has obviously run very well, not so an odds-on placed runner. Sometimes a trainer is “in form” without it showing up in the wins column. Best not to have a set amount of days to go back either; when stables have a lot of runners (eg Hannon, Nicholls etc) it is only necessary to go back a few days (if that). For a trainer without many runners, a full three weeks record may be needed.
I use Timeform Race Passes, but sportinglife.com website’s is another good guide in this area (when I last looked Racing Post site less so). I rate every horse in the race for what sort of form each trainer is in. Clicking on trainers names to give a three week history of every runner the stable has had in order (latest runs first). With too many numbers on my paper – instead of rating them 1 to 10 it’s: *** unbelievable form, through ** brilliant, * excellent, */ good, // average, /` probably average, / ok form, /- bit below (questions should be asked), – below form (saver only if anything), x very poor (think twice).
Most will be between * and /-. Some, (eg *** (right now Gosden)) appear rarely, only around half a dozen times a season; “x” would be a trainer on a long run of losers and no placed runners. Any race could have many in-form horses or none at all. Never make an out of form trainer the “main bet”, just a “saver” at best, although I find they’re rarely “value” bets anyway.
Trainer form can help pinpoint winners at big odds. Punters wisely don’t like backing horses who ran badly last time out, especially if no obvious reason comes to light. However, if the trainer has returned to form since its last run, there is a far better chance the horse itself will also return to form. Conversely; an impressive performance last time out when the trainer was in top form, but now going through a lean spell – may be one to take on (particularly at short odds). Also, a trainer who had an unusually poor season (probably due to a virus) last season, could end up with well handicapped horses this time around. Or finding a race where it looks between two horses whose trainers are in contrasting form could easily pay dividends.
Something that I find are not worth spending any time on are "trends". Trends that have no basis in the form book are misleading.
Hope that helps IB.
Value Is EverythingThanks Ginger.
I will digest all that when I have a little more time.
Your help is much appreciated, thanks again.
I get Timeform Race Passes; there’s a free sample of the Nell Gwyn Stakes if you want to take a look.
If you want to compare your 100% prices with mine IB, here’s my Nell Gwyn book:
Dorothy B 20% 4/1
Sandiva 18% 9/2
Euro Charline 12% 15/2
Queen Catrine 11.75% 15/2
Folk Melody 11.5% 15/2
Majeda 7% 13/1
Wind Fire 5.25% 18/1
Along Again 3.75% 25/1
Pelerin 3.25% 28/1
Artistic Charm 2.75% 33/1
Blockade 2.75% 33/1
Lily Rules 0.75% 132/1
Lamar 0.75% 132/1
Azagal 0.3% 300/1
Miss Lillie 0.2% 500/1I’ve backed Dorothy B @ 11/2 and 6/1, Euro Charline @ 10/1 (put it up @ 12/1 on my thread but VC closed my account so personally had to take 10’s) and saver on Folk Melody @ 9/1.
Might put a few quid as savers on Wind Fire and Artistic Charm, but don’t like backing horses on the drift, especially this time of year.
Value Is EverythingOne thing I’d add about doing books. You do need a margin for error. There are those (Dave Nevison is one) who work out their books at less than 100% (eg 90%) which give a built in margin for error. I tried it that way but prices didn’t look right, so I put in a margin afterwards. With one price added. eg If believing something has a 20% chance (fair 4/1) then I would
not
back it @ 9/2, but would @ 5/1 or better.
Novice odds-compilers may want a bigger margin for error.
Value Is EverythingAlso IB,
The morechance
the horse has of winning, the more money is invested. Something I believe has a 20% chance gets 20 points invested, a 40% (fair 6/4) gets 40 points, 10% (fair 9/1) gets 10 etc.
And added to that:
The more
value
is in the bet the more money is invested. So the 20% chance available @ 5/1 (16.7%) gets:
20 – 16.7 = 3.3
3.3 x 6 = 19.8
20 + 19.8 = 39.8 rounded up to 40
So something I believe a 20% chance available @ 5/1 gets40
points invested,
200 profit
.
If the 20% chance were available @ 11/2 (15.4%):
20 – 15.4 = 4.6
4.6 x 6 = 27.6
20 + 27.6 = 47.6 rounded up to 48
So if a 20% chance is available @ 11/2 I’d invest48
points,
240 profit
.
If it were 6/1 would be
54
points invested,
324 profit
.
13/260
invested,
390 profit
, and so on.
Value Is EverythingInteresting stuff on here Ginger, thanks for that.
I will use the Craven Stakes as an example here as to how I work;
100%
4/7 Toormore
11/2 Be Ready
14 Anjaal
14 The Grey Gatsby
25 Patentar
25 Postponed.That is my tissue. There is no value there for me Ginger so I will leave the race alone. What I do is compile my tissue (as above) then I would bet if the following prices were on offer:
NO BET Toormore – I don’t bet at odds on and if he drifts to odds against that would be too concerning.
7 Be Ready
18 Anjaal
18 The Grey Gatsby
40 Patentar
40 Postponed.Can you see anything there that I’m doing wrong?
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