Gamble Landed

[Glenn]

The betting action on that maiden was frenzied. The subsequent action less so.

Drifter backers have finally got a winner up! Carlitos Spirit ploughs a lone furrow over the strip of ground few backers pre-race would have wanted him to be on.

[Expect To Win]

I think You would enjoy your racing more in Dubai Glenn where there is not a market.

There are also no misjudged rides no mistimed efforts all horses are run over the right trip and horses don’t develop niggles. EVERYONE WINS OVER THERE.

[Maxilon 5]

Mondays and Tuesdays seem to be Dodge Cityville USA at the moment.

Certainly the closer we get to Saturday, it seems, the less influence racing’s Remarkable Clairvoyants have over the market. A side effect of R4C?

[Drone]

You only have to look at turnover on a race of exposed horses racing for a meaningful prize (the Summer Plate on Saturday), and compare and contrast it with a race of unraced maidens, to see that form punters are a dieing breed.

The opening maiden at Yarmouth was circa 800 grand pre-off, the 30 grand sprint at Ayr (with all its exposed form) barely got above 550 grand pre-off.

Is this schism in turnover a recent development?

You two will hardly need reminding that a bet should only be struck when you are confident that you have at your disposal more ‘information’ than does the market: a value edge. If you’ve the niggling feeling that others know more or you can’t weigh up a horse or horses then walk away. Commonsense innit?

Pray tell how the form student would approach the Brocklesby?

In my case fire-ups on Maidens and the like containing debutants, the unexposed or the ‘hidden’ ceased soon after I gave up two-bob ‘fun’ punting, which occurred sometime between O Levels and being dealt Pontoon: a playing field resembling the royal and ancient links was apparent to even a bright-eyed naive green-horned youth

Those with an insight into breeding trends or trainer trends; those on-course who can differentiate the forward from the backward; or those who place faith in third-party whispers and gossip may feel confident enough to strike wagers in ‘formless’ races but for those of us who haven’t or don’t, these nonsensical races mean sweet f a other than as on-going form data to be employed later in races with sufficient er…form

So by all means punt away in ‘dark’ races if you must but please don’t moan after the event that it was a case of ‘they knew’ – ‘you’ were always going to be at a disadvantage weren’t you?

The Pattern, the Graded, the 4yo+ handicap, superannuated leppers with prehistoric backclass…

…enough action there for the alive-and-kicking form student surely?

Admittedly betting in these friendly and enticing races does have one major disadvantage: you only have yourself to blame if you lose. Navel gazing is not a pastime that comes naturally to the gambler

Insider gambles are seemingly acceptable given their lengthy history, but are actually unacceptable, tawdry, tacky, boring and responsible for the perception that our little world is a cesspool shrouded in a smoggy-pongy murk lit by the occasional candle, swiftly snuffed

Why not leave ‘them’ and ‘their’ races well alone, as best you can. The parasites will only get fatter if you feed them your turnover. If starved they may die…

…if only it were that easy

The tombstone is ordered
Yet the mason’s chisel is quiet
The grave is kept clean
Yet the box it is empty
Tending the patch
Provides therapy aplenty
A time to ponder with grey
The large winter veggies
And the time-honoured method
That keeps wolves from the door
The answer should lie in the soil
But the truth is…
…little is carved from stone

[Cav]

I think Glenn’s point was more to do with the makeup of betting exchange markets rather than the rights and wrongs of punting in the markets you refer to, Drone.

Nice poem.

[carvillshill]

Hopefully the rest of us are to share in your and Glenn’s data deliberations in due course CR?

[thedarkknight]

Yesterday’s story

24 of 27 winners went off shorter than the opening on-course show

WINNERS BACKED ON SHOWS

Goldenveil – opened 11/10 SP Evens
Only A Splash – opened 18s SP 12/1
Silent Lucidity – opened 11/4 SP 5/2
favourite Girl – opened 8/1 SP 7/1
Tadalavil – opened 11/2 SP 9/2
Rasselas – opened 5/1 SP 3/1
Ya Boy Sir – opened 13/2 SP 4/1
Knotgarden – opened 5/1 SP 10/3
Highlife Dancer – opened 7/1 SP 6/1
Rough Rock – opened 11/4 SP 5/2
Watch Chain – opened 7/1 SP 13/2
Allannah Abu – opened 5/4 SP 6/5
Seattle Speight – opened 7/2 SP 11/4
Count Ceprano – opened 5/2 SP 85/40
Solicitor – opened 7/2 SP 11/4
Seldom – opened 14/1 SP 15/2
Carlitos Spirit – opened 9/4 SP 2/1
Caranbola – opened 15/2 SP 5/1
Escaper Artist – opened 10/3 SP 15/8
Urban Space – opened 7/1 SP 9/2
Timocracy – opened 6/4 SP 5/4
Poppy Seed – opened 4/1 SP 5/2
Blissful Moment – opened 9/4 SP 2/1
Kilburn – opened 10/1 SP 8/1

WINNERS THAT DRIFED ON SHOWS

Glenluji – opened 10/3 SP 4/1
Nellie Ellis – opened 3/1 SP 4/1
Whisper Louise – opened 10/3 SP 7/2

[cormack15]

TDK – very interesting indeed.

Do you have the stats (opening Versus SP) on those that finished second and/or third?

[cormack15]

Runners up at Ayr – 6 from 8 shortened at SP from opening show

I also looked at fifth place – randomly – and 6 from 8 that finished 5th also shortened at Ayr.

I’ll do a similar exercise at the other meets.

[cormack15]

Yarmouth –

Runners up – 2 from 5 shortened (don’t have data for teh other two)

Fifth place – 3 from 5 shortened

[cormack15]

Windsor

Runners up – 3 from 5 shortened up

Fifth place – all 6 shortened up

[cormack15]

Beverley –

Runners up – 1 from 3 shortened
Fifth place – 2 from 6 shortened

Took my info from Sporting Life results page – some opening shows not quoted.

Totals –

Winners – 24 from 27 shortened (88.88%)
Runners up – 12 from 21 (57.14%)
Fifth place – 17 from 25 (68%)

One day snapshot only mind – be interesting if anyone had any more data.

[Irish Stamp]

Interesting there was a deluge up at Ayr yesterday – anyone betting in the morning might as well have given their money to charity, the ground for the first was nothing like how they described and that was confirmed when Ruth Carr’s horse Only A Splash (only previous win on "heavy") won the second race.

[cormack15]

Looking at yesterday’s favourites

Beverley –

Shorteners – 4 – all lost
Drifters – 1 – lost

Ayr –

Shorteners – 9 (inc jt Favs) – 4 won (3/1, 9/2, 5/2, Ev)
Drifters – 1 – lost

Yarmouth

Shorteners – 3 – 1 won (85/40)
Drifters – 2 – both lost

Windsor

Shorteners – 6 – 3 won (2/1, 5/2, 5/4)
Drifters – none

Totals –

Shorteners – 8 wins from 22
Drifters – 0 wins from 4

Blindly backing all shortening favs at SP would have resulted in a profit of 22.16% on turnover (or 4.875 pts staking 1 pt win on each horse)

Blindly laying drifting favs would have seen a 100% profit.

Just one day’s results though.

You know – I might just track this, very interesting indeed.

[cormack15]

Figures from Saturday –

Winners –

Shortened up (opening show to SP) – 20 out of 34 winners shortened up = 59%

Favourites –

Favs who shortened up – 9 winners from 27 selections (inc Jt Favs) resulting in 11.11% profit against turnover and a profit of 3 pts on a 1 pt level stake.

Favs who drifted – 6 – 2 winners at 3/1 and 10/11 resulting in small profit if you layed them.

I don’t think anything is particularly clear from all of teh figs to date. It does appear that following shortening up favs leads to profit but I’d like to see loads more data.

The number of winners shortening up Saturday looks much less conclusive than the figures from yesterday.

Always dangerous to draw conclusions or make assumptions on limited data.

[Irish Stamp]

Nice double early on Tuesday for the money followers:

14:15 Yarmouth – Elkmait 11/4 into 5/2
14:30 Ffos Las – deadheaters Dozy Joe (100’s into 80/1) and Royal Opera (6 into 11/2) both nibbled at.

[carvillshill]

You’re having a laugh IS!

[Author]

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