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Defence Of Realm was allotted a rating of 59 after 8.25l, 34l, 9.75l and 35l defeats, and has been well backed for his handicap debut in Kempton’s 8.20.
George Baker trains, Tony Culhane rides and the horse steps up to 2m from 1m 3f.
Is Hayley Turner a morphing into gelded version of Jamie Spencer? What on earth was she up to aboard Jewellery in the 8:20? Odd.
Looking back to the original prompter of this thread, Am I Blue, it’s remarkable to nore how the spinal therapy that transformed her, also seemes to have put some backbone into the horses she beat that afternoon at Hereford.
The runner-up Northern Lad won by 6L at Exeter last week, finished second today in an attempted follow up and will be rated 108 from Saturday, a 13lb rise.
The third Sea Cliff, beaten 35L at Hereford, won next time at Worcester.
Mangonel, 43L behind at Hereford, finished second to Northern Lad at Exeter.
Noddy Kivambo, 76l adrift at Hereford, finished second to Sea Cliff at Worcester and second after that at Fontwell, and he’s now rated 99, 9lbs up since Hereford.
And most amazingly of all, Tegan Lee, a mere 119L behind Am I Blue at Hereford, revived to finished a close seond at Fontwell next time and is now up 5lbs to 95.
That Hereford race is starting to look like the best 0-95 handicap of the season and Am I Blue is fortunate to have only been raised to 105 for winning it!
AP
Spotting Am I Blue amongst the runners in the 2M handicap at Kempton this evening prompted me to revisit this thread.
Did the BHA investigation subsequent to her win at Hereford ever produce anything? I’ve looked on their website and can find no reference to Am I Blue.
After a couple of wide margin defeats at Wolverhampton, is this the day for Am I Blue on the flat? The unknown apprentice is down to ride – is his dental appointment booked – has Am I Blue been back to the Bridgend massage parlour?
AP
I’m glad you brought that up, ap.
I keep meaning to ask if Dean Coleman (the apprentice with the toothache) has ever been sighted on a horse since he was replaced on that famous day?
I don’t believe he has.
CONDITIONAL jockey Dean Coleman has relinquished his licence and admitted that the controversy surrounding the
successful gamble on Am I Blue at Hereford in September contributed to his decision to quit.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/jockey_home.sd?jockey_id=86875I dread to think what he’d have done had he actually ridden Am I Blue and got it beat..
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Would Reefer Beefer be o.k to discuss?
Having been pulled up in his only handicap start and been dropped 10lbs in the weights, he’d been beaten an average of 35 lengths or more. Gambled the last twice before being pulled out he was gambled into 4’s early then out to 6’s. Went on to win by 8 lengths when previously showing nothing.
I backed it but still, worth a look.
He was joint top rated in the race and was down a grade. I think it was just such a bad race that he was entitled to win.
In the interests of keeping this thread going.
Graeme Mc Pherson
landed a nice touch today with this one.
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5:20 – Wurzels After Racing – Evening Meeting 12th April Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race
Full result
2m1f, Class 5, £2,055.30
1 Dancing Emily100/30
2 Maid Of Silk 9/4F
3 Bahira 11/4
11 ran Distances: 3l, 2l, 4l
TIME 3m 51.90s (slow by 11.90s)
Jockey: Jodie Mogford
Trainer: Graeme McPherson
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It was10/1 generally
and some 20’s looks like was taken on betfair. If anything the Jockey gave it a good ride and if you want to be critical hit the front a bit early on it. It was always travelling well just off the pace.
I have never heard of the Trainer, but apparently he has spent a lot of money on facilities.I have been experimenting with exploiting best odds guarantees lately.
Clearly the guarantee is most valuable with those horses whose form is the least certain as their odds are likely to change the most, and where the time between early prices and the start is the longest. Also I think low value races are best as there is more chance of a ‘gamble’ occurring, because entering the horse merely for the prize money is not a major incentive.
So Dancing Emily with unknown form from an unknown trainer in the £3000 last race of the day would be a prime example of a know-nothing punt on the guarantee.
I don’t really understand your point. Surely BOG is only of value if yur horse drifts and wins, hardly likely witha horse that has been gambled by shrewd connections?
Clearly, without hedging, the BOG is only better than taking a fixed price at the same odds if the horse drifts and wins. But with unknown form the horse can go either way before the race.
Maybe it’s easier to see with an example. You back a horse for £100 at 3/1 BOG and lay £100 on an exchange at the same odds. Two thirds of the time the odds will stay the same or shorten, so you break even, but about one time in three, if it’s a horse of uncertain potential, it will drift to 4-1. You can now lay another £25 on the exchange. Then you break even if it wins and win £25 if it loses. So one third of four fifths of the time you will make a return of 25/425, or an expected return of 1.6% before commission.
Alternatively you can back at 3/1 BOG and lay at exchange SP. Then you win if the odds shorten.
The comm cost probably wipes out any profit so you are forced to do the trade unhedged and hope you win over time. With margins so thin, it is important that you get the best price and select the horses most likely to drift or steam the most.
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Aland Islands, Exeter 5pm.
6/1 in the paper, went off odds on. I wonder what you guys make of this. Keep in mind I was told this would be running in a flat race at Ffos Las (probably), I was told over a month ago and that I should back it first time out.
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