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There have been a few horses who have won over 12 furlongs on class alone, Sir Ivor springs to mind and he was carefully ridden to this effect in the Derby, Brigadier Gerard would be another, he really hung in the latter stages and nearly lost the race in the stewards room, which indicated he was going beyond his comfortable distance.
Another, maybe Mahmoud, but then he ran third in a St Leger, but his pedigree and progeny suggest he was probably about his best at 10 furlongs.
Breeding is so fascinating, I too was wrong about Golden Horn, having considered the progeny of Tessa Gillian and their brilliance; incidentally he came from the same female line as Mahmoud. Now we have Pivotol as a potential Derby sire, he has already sired stayers and Wings of Love has already proved he can stay 12 furlongs.I always did understand it was more the female line that created the stamina. All very interesting.Now we have Pivotol as a potential Derby sire, he has already sired stayers and Wings of Love has already proved he can stay 12 furlongs.I always did understand it was more the female line that created the stamina. All very interesting.
Well, Pivotal has already sired an Oaks winner, so it’s not unthinkable that he could add a Derby to the tally, but (perhaps an important factor?) she was from the same female family as Wings of Desire. Given that his dam Gull Wing and granddam Maycocks Bay both won over 14f, I think it’s safe to say there was already plenty of stamina in the mix. Going back a bit further, this is the same female line as Irish St Leger winner Mountain Lodge and the highly influential Selene.
Now that connections have decided that GG is not going to be supplemented, I find myself going back to some of the most interesting aspects of this thread and to the underpinning research. Since I work in the HE sector I have access to some of these research publications. The two that I have found most interesting are these:
The first is one that uses measurements of fat free mass as predictors of performance; the second examines the history of the speed gene in the thoroughbred population. This latter paper is particularly interesting for pedigree afficionados. It uses DNA data to show the preponderance of T/T in the historic Thoroughbred (Hyperion, St Simon, Ormonde for e.g. were all T/T), links the spread of the speed gene (C) to the Nearctic and Northern Dancer male lines, and also connects these changes to changes in the nature of horse racing (from longer distance match races to the current pattern). In themselves, these findings are not particularly surprising, but what they point to, in conjunction with the intense in-breeding to the Nearctic/Northern Dancer male line, is a long term trend – the increasing preponderance of C/C in the thoroughbred population, and the corresponding decline in influences for stamina.
For copyright reasons, I cannot post links to these articles, but if anyone would like a copy p/m me.That’s interesting, Titus Oates. Unless the trend is checked, it looks like a mile will become the optimum trip for Flat horses.
On a tangent, your mention of Northern Dancer reminded me that I just finished a book where he got a mention as a stallion who stood at $1m a covering and, at one point, this was without the No Foal No Fee contingency. That’s more than $6m at today’s value. There must have been some proper risk-taking breeders back then.
I agree ‘Steeplechasing’. Rather than classic horses progressing (or not) through a pattern that was designed to assess generations in terms of speed and stamina, we now seem to have horses being campaigned in relation to their assumed optimum. For many 3yos this seems to be increasingly one mile, stretching maybe to 10f as a 4yo. Perhaps the current buzz around this year’s SJP at Royal Ascot will become even more prevalent in years to come, and flat racing will become all about who is the best miler? Personally, I preferred the days when Mill Reef (second in the best 2000 Guineas of all, and fast enough to win the Coventry by 6 lengths) went on to win the Derby, Eclipse, King George and Arc as a3yo – or when Oh So Sharp won the Fillies’ Triple Crown, the 1000, Oaks and Leger.
A $million for Northern Dancer. I wonder what Galileo stands for? I understand they have complex commercial relationships sometimes at Coolmore and the fee is listed as ‘private’ but if I rocked up with a cheque book and a mare what would the fee be?
Personally, I preferred the days when Mill Reef (second in the best 2000 Guineas of all, and fast enough to win the Coventry by 6 lengths) went on to win the Derby, Eclipse, King George and Arc as a3yo – or when Oh So Sharp won the Fillies’ Triple Crown, the 1000, Oaks and Leger.
I liked those days too.
But I would also have liked to have seen twelve Derby winners go on to victory in the St James’s Palace Stakes, as happened between 1880 and 1935.
A $million for Northern Dancer. I wonder what Galileo stands for? I understand they have complex commercial relationships sometimes at Coolmore and the fee is listed as ‘private’ but if I rocked up with a cheque book and a mare what would the fee be?
His 2014 fee is reported as 350,000 Euro
One organisation and breeding team more than any other has created this trend. Very sad for racing, things are getting boring. The obsession with Northern Dancer has effectively ruined horse racing.
I can’t believe that Hyperion was genetically a TT, he had a tendency to sire non staying colts.I can’t believe that Hyperion was genetically a TT, he had a tendency to sire non staying colts.
I don’t know where you get that idea from. Hyperion himself displayed plenty of stamina as well as speed, finding the St Leger distance no problem. At stud, he got good horses over a variety of trips, but most stayed middle distances at least. His two best colts, Owen tudor and Aureole both stayed well.
You can see read all about Hyperion at http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/Hyperion.html
He is noted as a brilliant sire, he got the St Leger on very hard going, didn’t stay the Ascot Gold Cup distance. He transmitted more speed than stamina to his stock and long term he has been more of an influence for speed than stamina. Don’t forget Aureole was out of a mare by the staying Donatello II. Hyperion certainly didn’t add stamina to a fast pedigree, so I doubt he was a true TT. But all that CT, CC, TT stuff is up there to be disproved in my opinion.
So much of interest, and sense, in this June 1 article from Chris McGrath in TBOB on genetic testing
http://www.ownerbreeder.co.uk/2016/06/good-opportunity-missed/.
A TBA review, led by Peter Webbon, has been instigated, to inform breeders re options currently available and their underlying science, plus potential consequences, and to assess what genetic techniques available in other areas of animal breeding might be of value to the TB – notably around a fitter, healthier and more durable breed. Webbon is pretty upfront here on his views about the capacity of genetics as a reasonably reliable indicator of fracture risk and breathing difficulties, compared to genetics as an indicator of performance. Along the way there are some interesting quotes from JB (on testing foals as soon as they are on the ground; on different training regimes for CCs, CTs and TTs as soon as they arrive as yearlings; on Dawn Approach (a CC); on what he learned about breeding to Galileo – who is a TT; and his personal views about buying, or more accurately probably not buying, a TT). As ever, commercial interests v the long term interests of the breed are to the fore.A fascinating article, thanks for posting the link.
Interesting that Galileo is a TT. If this sort of information had been available 20 years ago, would Galileo have even been bred?
With Sadler’s Wells almost certainly a TT, judging by his offspring, would he have been considered a suitable mate for Urban Sea?
Exactly the sorts of questions that I find myself thinking about Venusian …
I’m of the view that this information is of use to breeders – and certainly if I owned a mare I’d want to know what she was, and the prospective stallions, on the basis that more information is generally better than less. The GG case made clear that the information is being used to help inform decisions over which race a horse runs in. This article confirms what I thought on first reading up some of the scientific papers behind this test – that TT is something more commercially minded flat breeders (and trainers) will not want to produce. The ‘speed gene’ test is another nail in the coffin in breeding staying horses. The view is out there in this article that TT = ‘a Cup horse’ (or a jumps horse – translation, slow old boat). But, clearly, things are not so simple. Whilst the comment is correct at the level of all TTs, what we are starting to see via some of these articles is that, as racehorses, some TTs (of course) combine speed and stamina. They are the Galileo’s of this world, and they are the exceptional ones that matter in terms of future breeding.
Whether such stock will continue to be bred is a moot question – and, for me, more important than questions about the application of the test to racing. The answer will depend on what kind of stud/breeding operation one is looking at. Where short termism and short cuts prevail, I think the answer to those questions would be No. As more of this information gets into the public domain, TT x TT would be a sales ‘no-no’, unless it was heading for one of the premium NH stock sales; even TT x CT would be a risk (too much chance of getting a TT); so you are left doing just the JB route of TT x CC (and needing CC mares to go to a TT stallion that you want to use). Where the breeder is in it for the long haul, knows the history of the TB, appreciates the connections between stamina and durability, and thinks in terms of female families, then the answer would probably be a Yes.My reading of that article is that Mr Webbon is trying to say, as politely as possible, that there’s an awful lot of bad science at play – or at least wilful and unbalanced interpretation of the science.
There was much talk of extensive data, but no explanation of what that data was based on or how it was gathered. If, for example you are measuring for precocity, you are limited to testing those within the age bracket to which precocity applies. What about potentially precocious types who did not, for some reason, get the chance to prove that precocity?
Anyway, the most surprising statement, imo, was this: “Geneticists credit between 30 and 50% of performance to heredity, the rest coming down to such environmental variables as training or nutrition.”
I have zero experience in science, zero experience in feeding or training racehorses but I’m certain I can say without fear of contradiction by any long-term racing enthusiast that to argue that as much as 70% of the success of a racehorse is down to feeding and training is an absolute nonsense.
My reading of that article is that Mr Webbon is trying to say, as politely as possible, that there’s an awful lot of bad science at play – or at least wilful and unbalanced interpretation of the science.
There was much talk of extensive data, but no explanation of what that data was based on or how it was gathered. If, for example you are measuring for precocity, you are limited to testing those within the age bracket to which precocity applies. What about potentially precocious types who did not, for some reason, get the chance to prove that precocity?
Anyway, the most surprising statement, imo, was this: “Geneticists credit between 30 and 50% of performance to heredity, the rest coming down to such environmental variables as training or nutrition.”
I think the 70% being down to nutrition and training is saying that decisions made by a trainer set the tone for a horse’s career (rather than a trainer influencing its ability to run) i.e. if I keep a horse over hurdles for its entire life, or insist on running it over 6f forever, it has no chance to prove itself over fences/12f.You touch on that when you mention precocity. I agree though, that it’s impossible to quantify. I’ve seen that quoted before, and wondered how they came up with it. It does beg the question of how easy it will be to measure the accuracy of their speed gene system. Most trainers are pretty conservative, and target a known subset of races with a horse, making it difficult to tell how versatile horses truly are. I wonder how simple it all is anyway – after all, the race distances are man-made, and we are not talking about barrel racing v. endurance. What is the cut-off point for a CC’s optimum performance? If it can get a mile, is 12f such a stretch? 10 f? 9? Using genetic tests to identify soundness it an interesting one – the big stallion boys won’t like that!I have zero experience in science, zero experience in feeding or training racehorses but I’m certain I can say without fear of contradiction by any long-term racing enthusiast that to argue that as much as 70% of the success of a racehorse is down to feeding and training is an absolute nonsense.
Sorry – got my reply garbled with the quote:
I think the 70% being down to nutrition and training is saying that decisions made by a trainer set the tone for a horse’s career (rather than a trainer influencing its ability to run) i.e. if I keep a horse over hurdles for its entire life, or insist on running it over 6f forever, it has no chance to prove itself over fences/12f.You touch on that when you mention precocity. I agree though, that it’s impossible to quantify. I’ve seen that quoted before, and wondered how they came up with it. It does beg the question of how easy it will be to measure the accuracy of their speed gene system. Most trainers are pretty conservative, and target a known subset of races with a horse, making it difficult to tell how versatile horses truly are. I wonder how simple it all is anyway – after all, the race distances are man-made, and we are not talking about barrel racing v. endurance. What is the cut-off point for a CC’s optimum performance? If it can get a mile, is 12f such a stretch? 10 f? 9? Using genetic tests to identify soundness it an interesting one – the big stallion boys won’t like that
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