- This topic has 68 replies, 25 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
In terms of breeding then Titus, are the genes transferred line colour gene? So a TT stallion will always pass on a T, a CT 50/50 C:T and CC always a C. And is a C dominant over T I wonder, like Bay over Chestnut?
Corm: CC etc. is straightforward inheritance, with offspring inheriting one gene from sire/dam. So, the probabilities are as follows:
CC x CC = CC (100%)
CC x CT = CC (50%); CT (50%)
CT x CT = CC (25%); CT (50%); TT (25%)
CC x TT = CT (100%)
CT x TT = CT (50%); TT (50%)
TT x TT = TT (100%)
On GG – the key issue is surely that the test is predictive. The trouble comes, as is apparently the case in this instance, when predictive tests are used to anticipate actual racecourse performance. Equinome state that the speed gene test predicts performance with 90% accuracy. That means that there is ~ 10% chance that GG might stay further than the average CC individual. The likelihood of that has to connect to maximum aerobic capacity – so, it’s not just about the speed gene alone but how it connects with a whole host of others e.g. FFM. If he were mine (fat chance!), I’d have stomped up the cash – after all, we can all think of ‘2000’ winners running in the Derby, and failing to stay, without that seeming to have harmed their future commercial value.It’s hard to believe Humphrey Bogart would pass the genetic test for The Derby,
Why on earth not? He’s already shown he stays 1 1/2 miles, well within 100 yards of it anyway, so it’s very likely that would show up in the test.
Both his full brother and full sister stayed well, albeit at a lower level than HB.
In any case, this isn’t a geeky exercise in pedigree analysis, it’s science.
It’s about time the bloodstock industry moved on from outdated ideas like dosage and nicks.
On Galileo Gold, Tom Segal has called the early decision to swerve the Derby as ‘staggeringly strange’.
Which, to me, translates as “I don’t understand science”.
This is fascinating. I am looking at Massaat, which came second in the 2000 Guineas. Presumably his sire, Teofilo, is a CT and his dam, Madani, is a CC. So he could be either CC or CT. If CC he has no chance in the Derby, whereas if CT he could be one of the favourites. Presumably he wouldn’t be entered if he was a CC so he is probably a CT and therefore worth a punt at 20-1?
Nice comeback the other day Garry. Should have beaten wes a few more times than u did
Not convinced Massat would get more than 10 furlongs, on running style he could step up in trip but looks to have quite a muscular frame, also on breeding there has to be serious doubts.
I think Humphrey Bogart is a CT, his dam stayed further than a mile and a half, so that’s where he gets his stamina from.
In fact his breeding is very much the fashion these days, to mix a sprinter with a middle distance horse, (ie frankel was the other way around his sire was a middle distance type while the dam was a sprinter)
This way you cover both bases, he can either be good at sprinting or if not you step him up in trip, fairly confident that he’ll stay
Only one thing to say. Red Rum – bred to run a mile, he excelled at 4 miles plus as we all know with 3 wins and 2 seconds in the Grand National. Presumably his genetic test would have made him a CC too – and we would have been deprived of one of our greatest steeplechasers ever.
Don’t think so, presumably he was a CT
I would not wish to be thought pedantic, but when it comes to science it is useful to distinguish between “Science” and “A Bit Sciencey”. Despite this research coming from people backed by a reputable university you would still have to look at whether the conclusions propounded are justified by the evidence provided. From the study report, a total of 148 horses were included in the research group, and with the nature of this type of genetic attribute, about 25% of them would be CC muscle types, so perhaps 37 CC muscle-type horses. Is this a big enough research group to be confident about the results? The research group were all from the same environment, with no external randomized control group to compare against. How were factors such as early foal care, feeding regime, exercise regime, training regime, veterinary care, etc, removed from the factors that may have affected the research group’s ability to sprint or stay longer distances? How do we know that the trainer was not affected by knowledge of each horse’s pedigree; in deciding when to start training it, what type of training to administer to it (speed work, stamina work), what distance of race to aim it at, etc?
I was amazed at this paragraph in the report:
“To minimize non-genetic influences on performance we further validated the findings by genotyping elite (Group and Listed race winning) racehorse samples (n=39) selected from a repository of DNA samples (n = 419) from horses trained by the same trainer in Ireland during 2004–2008. This sample had some sharing of relatives, accounted for in the analyses (Replication sample II).”
Selecting samples from horses trained by the same trainer does exactly the opposite of minimizing non-genetic influences! It is as if Jim Bolger is not human and has no opinions, no biases, no accumulated knowledge, and always submits all his horses to exactly the same training, feeding and veterinary regime no matter what he feels they need!Accepting for the moment that C-type muscles and T-type muscles exist and are determined by genetics (via alleles), evidence from other studies about genetic inheritence indicates that there is seldom a one-to-one relationship between a gene (allele) and an attribute in any life form. We can know in binary choice alleles that an allele causes either bay or chestnut colouring in a horse, and that bay is dominant, but we also know that there are many varieties of bay from dark brown to light brown even in “pure” bays, and similar significant variance in chestnuts (who are all “pure” chestnuts). It is the same with blue (regressive) and brown (dominant) eye colour in humans; we can look into the eyes of all our friends and family and still find a significant variance in actual colour, whether that is variance in “base” blue or brown. This indicates that other alleles elsewhere are contributing to horse coat colour and human eye colour. There seems to be no evidence supplied that C or T types will not display the same wide variance in the attribute that the research claims to identify.
Speed and stamina in horses (and also in all animals) are very different attributes; they are not a description of parts of the same scale of performance. They are linked through the physical and bio-chemical attributes of the individual, but not directly. Stamina is associated mostly with bio-chemistry, the size and efficiency of energy stores, the rate at which useable energy can be created in the body, and the rate at which the toxic by-products of useable energy created can be eliminated.
As other posters have pointed out, it is sometimes in examining extremes that understanding of principles can be demonstrated. Red Rum had enough speed to win a five furlong two-year-old race and enough stamina to win a Grand National. Frankel had enough speed to run one of the furlongs of the Queen Anne Stakes faster that any of the 22 sprinters ran in the Group 1 King Stand Stakes just 30 minutes later over the same course, and the manner in which he beat St Nicholas Abbey (six Group Ones over 12 furlongs) in the Juddmonte International over 10.5 furlongs left most people in no doubt that the ease of victory would have been no different over 12 furlongs.
The conclusions of the research could all turn out to be true, and it would be exciting if it were, but there are potential confounding factors that have not been addressed.
I would have thought that several other factors come into play with Galileo Gold. What are the trainer’s and jockey’s views about the horse as an individual; its temperament, its desire to get to the front – or just to lob along? Is this year’s Derby likely to be run at a slow pace, how many runners will there be, are there any potential runners demonstrably better than the rest?
Re: Genetic test –
I’m sure we had this debate on the forum a while back , when we discussed
this very subject – the details of which escape my failing memory, although I do recall being an advocate of the test.Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
All of this smells like a publicity stunt for Equinome. Hugo Palmer namechecked the brand EIGHT times in a 5-10 minute RUK interview. Equinome in turn have pounced upon the story in a well-coordinated social media campaign.
I’m surprised Palmer had to pay over £500 to find out that his son of Paco Boy is very unlikely to stay 1m 4f. It seems like there is some sort of partnership in place here.
Very few people are passing comment on the likelihood that Galileo Gold will be the worst 2000 Guineas winner since Cockney Rebel. Especially after Palmer’s drugs scandal at the end of last season, it was disappointing to see his fairly mediocre colt winning the Guineas. It would be horrifying to see him (as a certified non-stayer) troubling the judge in the Derby. However Palmer is claiming to have reached the decision, I’m glad Galileo Gold won’t be taking part at Epsom.
That’ a fine post, MV
the greatest returns on training investment come from CC and CT (these earn 5x the average of TTs, and 1.6x when the highest earning individual is removed from the analysis); there is a strong suggestion to only train CC and CT 2yos; and there is a small (but telling) comparison of the comparative earnings of the progeny of a CT sire compared to a TT. The implication is clear: (for flat trainers) training CCs and CTs result in reduced operating costs and a greater return on investment.
Even supposing the above proved true. Once all trainers concentrated on buying/training only CCs and CTs, all advantages disappear.
As to Equinome making PR hay with Palmer’s decision, that’s pretty daft as no right/wrong conclusion will be reached. A bit like a shampoo company saying, ‘If you never intend washing your hair, buy our product!’
I detect an aroma of snake oil surrounding this whole project
Without going into any biological science whatsoever, the History books show that when a colt has the pace to win a Guineas, it doesn’t win the Derby.
A DNA printout will be of little use to a colt whose tongue is hanging at his kneecaps in the final 2F at Epsom.
What happened to the notion of running the horse in the race to find out one way or another?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
……..
What happened to the notion of running the horse in the race to find out one way or another?Computer says NO!
MV, I was thinking along those lines. Surely the careers of the horses sampled at Bolger’s were determined to a highly significant extent by his views on their likely staying ability, based on pedigree, rather than being determined by their code.
It seems pretty clear there is something in it but I am sure there are much greater shades of grey, at least for now, than black and white.Without going into any biological science whatsoever, the History books show that when a colt has the pace to win a Guineas, it doesn’t win the Derby.
A DNA printout will be of little use to a colt whose tongue is hanging at his kneecaps in the final 2F at Epsom.
What happened to the notion of running the horse in the race to find out one way or another?
What about all the colts who have won both then?
Crepello won the 2000 Guineas, he would have probably been a TT on breeding as well, yet he did the 2000 Derby double.
I have had a look at the Equinome website and I agree there is a smell of snake oil. They also sell feed and other accoutrements for the bloodstock/racing industry.You’d have to be sceptical without a lot more evidence. What went wrong with Dawn Approach? did the test get him wrong or did Jim Bolger ignore the test?
Like Paco Boy it’s hard to believe a horse by Tagula such as Humphrey Bogart would come up with 12fs as his optimum distance with a test, neither would the breeding experts prior to it occurring of course.
What would it have made of Nijinsky, Red Rum or Yangtse Kiang?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.