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CheltenhamSpecialist wrote:
IF and I emphasise the word "if" The Dante form / Epsom Derby time can be taken at face value CAPE BLANCO must be the safest bet since Arkle last ran in a Gold CupWouldn’t be too sure about either.
Workforce was obviously a much superior horse to when 2nd in the Dante. That was only the 2nd race of his life, and his stable made clear he needed experience badly. The slipping bit clearly made a difference (it didn’t ‘slip’, but was pulled right out of his mouth some way from home) and there was none of his hanging right, or running with his tongue out today. Even on a line through Midas Touch, he comes out 6l better than the Jan Vermeer that beat MT in the Criterium, and the same Midas Touch was reckoned to be the equal of Cape Blanco by connections, in an interview immediately after the Dante.
The time is obviously genuine, though I’d question the going description given the way the race was run. At First Sight set only a medium pace and visibly quickened to go clear about 6f from home, with most of the field remaining bunched until around Tattenham Corner. (Hand-timed sectionals confirm this, with the first 9f being run at an average 12.96 secs p.f., and the last 3 significantly quicker at 11.56 s.p.f.). There’s no way they could have finished that fast, and broken the course record to boot, unless the ground was much faster than the official descriptionTo say Cape Blanco was the equal to Midas Touch is just wild speculation on your part imo don’t even remember where this was said, Miads Touch was a replacement in the Derrinstown for Mikhal Glinka, to me they have learned lessons from what happened with Rip Van Winkle, not bred to stay 12f and Cape Blanco even more so than Rip Van Winkle, Cape Blanco was out of a 5f sprinting dam, look at Gan Amhras last year decent at 8f and folds at 12f who wasn’t bred to stay the 12f.
Another person giving a mass disservice to Cape Blanco who is still unbeaten, even though Workforce who clearly had excuses, Cape Blanco still made short work of him and was lame remember and Cape Blanco is still also inexperienced also I even think Cape Blanco was off the track more than Workforce.
That said Workforce would have beaten him today.
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Not speculation at all, RR. That was the opinion stated by one of the Coolmore insiders (believe it was Magnier, though not certain) in a CH4 interview in the aftermath of the Dante.
It def was not magnier the only one from the coolmore team who was there was derek smiths son
To say Cape Blanco was the equal to Midas Touch is just wild speculation on your part imo don’t even remember where this was said, Miads Touch was a replacement in the Derrinstown for Mikhal Glinka, to me they have learned lessons from what happened with Rip Van Winkle, not bred to stay 12f and Cape Blanco even more so than Rip Van Winkle, Cape Blanco was out of a 5f sprinting dam, look at Gan Amhras last year decent at 8f and folds at 12f who wasn’t bred to stay the 12f.
Another person giving a mass disservice to Cape Blanco who is still unbeaten, even though Workforce who clearly had excuses, Cape Blanco still made short work of him and was lame remember and Cape Blanco is still also inexperienced also I even think Cape Blanco was off the track more than Workforce.
That said Workforce would have beaten him today.
I agree Workforce was impressive today, on what basis would Workforce have beaten Cape Blanco?
JohnJ
Reet even with being equal thaan Midas Touch surely that would be only on the Derby though with Cape Blanco’s pedigree being really against him.
JohnJ same applies here doesn’t it? Why else would they be sending him to a 10.5f G1? I know history says Ballydoyle don’t send there best there but surely this is his best chance yet to win his 1st, they sent CB to the Dante and they usually don’t send their best there either but the Dante looked really good beforehand, I think they think a lot of Cape Blanco and I hope he wins tomorrow.
Even if he does win I think sadly Workforce and Cape Blanco will never face each other again.
RR,
In the Dante CB was running away at the end, I still believe that despite his pedigree he will stay 12f. I think Ballydoyle got it wrong, CB is their best middle distance horse on the evidence I have seen thus far, he travelled so well at York, quickened and put the race to bed in a matter of strides. If CB is successful tomorrow, I can see him being aimed at the Irish Derby.
JohnJ
I would wait and see how the first races pan out in Chantilly because at present the ground is described as GOOD which in france could be anything from GD-FM to SOFT.
CAPE BLANCO obviously has a cracking chance if over his lameness at york.
If it was on the softer side though, I would really like to be on the Soumillon horse NO RISK AT ALL at 14-1.
And at 40-1 I quite like Shamalgan who was a decent finishing third in the Poulains and I think should like the extra trip.
Also worth noting that Lope De Vega has already emulated his sires win of the Poulains and his now trying to emulate his win in the Prix Jockey Club.
I wouldnt be rushing in just yet on anything as this could be a more interesting race than most people seem to be seeing it to be…
Bulwark,
Totally agree, I have no idea of form lines in France, and I would also like to see what the ground is like after the first race.
JohnJ.
- Total Posts 17716
Cape Blanco is a best priced 3/1 for this (by Ladbrokes alone – which possibly tells its own story), and I just couldn’t have him on my mind. Not only does he now appear to have been fortunate to win the Dante, the 3rd horse home finished some 5l behind Rewilding today, which leaves him a mountain to climb with Planteur. SNA apart, the Coolmore middle distance 3yo’s are beginning to look distinctly ordinary, and I’d be surprised if he makes the first 2.
Ice Blue won his trial quite well, but beat nothing exceptional, and has a lot to find on ratings. Lope De Vega has possibly the best form in the race with his defeat of Dick Turpin, but has a nightmare draw to overcome, and is not certain to stay anyway. Simon De Montfort beat not much impressively in a slowly run race, and is unlikely to improve for the move in stables, which leaves it toPlanteur
to bring home the bacon.
Impressive in his trial, (the only horse to get near him finished 4th in the Derby), laid out for this since, and has a decent draw and a pacemaker to help him along. 5/1 generally, which he’s unlikely to be on the PMu, which looks a steal considering the reason behind it.Cape Blanco is a best priced 3/1 for this (by Ladbrokes alone – which possibly tells its own story), and I just couldn’t have him on my mind. Not only does he now appear to have been fortunate to win the Dante, the 3rd horse home finished some 5l behind Rewilding today, which leaves him a mountain to climb with Planteur. SNA apart, the Coolmore middle distance 3yo’s are beginning to look distinctly ordinary, and I’d be surprised if he makes the first 2.
Ice Blue won his trial quite well, but beat nothing exceptional, and has a lot to find on ratings. Lope De Vega has possibly the best form in the race with his defeat of Dick Turpin, but has a nightmare draw to overcome, and is not certain to stay anyway. Simon De Montfort beat not much impressively in a slowly run race, and is unlikely to improve for the move in stables, which leaves it toPlanteur
to bring home the bacon.
Impressive in his trial, (the only horse to get near him finished 4th in the Derby), laid out for this since, and has a decent draw and a pacemaker to help him along. 5/1 generally, which he’s unlikely to be on the PMu, which looks a steal considering the reason behind it.Cape Blanco was fortunate in the Dante, I saw nothing fortunate about how easily he put both Workforce and Coordinated Cut to bed in a matter of strides. People writing off Cape Blanco when he has done nothing wrong over his four starts, he remains unbeaten.
JohnJ
Cape Blanco is a best priced 3/1 for this (by Ladbrokes alone – which possibly tells its own story),quote]
Cape Blanco was cut into favourite after the Derby today.
It might pay to keep a close eye on the sky too!
Some might not have seen this:
Thunderstorms over Chantilly on Sunday
By Desmond Stoneham
France: Violent storms are forecast from midday onwards at Chantilly on Sunday afternoon.
Following three days of radiant sunshine, the French meteorological office is forecasting a dramatic change on Prix du Jockey Club day with thunder, lightning, downpours, a strong gusty wind and the possibility of hail.
Clerk of the course Mathieu Vincent said on Saturday morning: "It looks as if were in for la merde in the afternoon.
"I put ten millimetres of water on the track on Friday night and the going is currently good to soft. Tomorrow morning, I am expecting to post good ground before the meeting begins."
Sticky ground was part blamed for the defeat of ‘Behkabad’ last time out – so this news could be why he’s drifted?…
‘Lope’ faces stronger opposition in this race here – not many have done the double either…
Prix du Jockey-Club: Luck of the draw!
With 23 starters, the seats in the stalls of departure are paramount. After the draw, June 4 at the headquarters of France Galop, Ice Blue Planter and are doing fairly well with respectively 10 and 3. This is not the case of Lope de Vega, many less fortunate as part outside the 20.
Bad luck for Lope de Vega! A favorite of the Prix du Jockey Club in 2010 inherited a number outside. Maxime Guyon must deal with the 20. A situation that had to manage in the Poule d’Essai since he had already inherited the issue as outside the track. This type of issue will probably require the jockey to produce a starting effort, or take and pass the race, which is always difficult.
Planter has had better luck since the start from stall No. 10. A good place for this horse can do everything in a course. Already installed favorite by many observers, this starting position further strengthens this status. But a race is a race …
Among other horses in order, note the good places of Ice Blue and Simon de Montfort boxes that will start No. 3 and No. 1. An asset! Behkabad is located in the middle of the track with 13. Cape Blanco inherited the 7 and No Risk at All, 5.
Note that the winners of the last five editions of the Prix du Jockey Club sprang stalls No. 13, 7, 5 and 4.
I think this renewel of the Prix Du Jockey Club is arguably as strong as our Derby.
All eyes from these shores will be on Cape Blanco, who beat subsequent Derby winner, Workforce.
I like the leading home fancies, Planteur and Behkabad.
The former enjoyed a smooth success over Derby third, Rewilding, in April and comes from a smart family.
Below is a link to the Prix Noailles:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ort-E4VXOGwBehkabad is another high class, well related sort, courtesy of H H The Aga Khan’s stud. The son of Cape Cross has tasted defeat only once in five outings, although this is a marked step up in class.
The leading players respective prices for todays
Cape BlancoPlanteur
Ice Blue
Behkabad
If any of the home based fancies take this, the remainder of their season will revolve around Arc day, whereas our colts will more than likely be exposed to a couple of hard races between now and then.May be worth taking a price for the Arc if you fancy any of them today. The winner of this will clearly be useful.
…
UM – I agree with Ole about being ‘green’ as a big worry (think I hinted at it?) – Dupre said that he might sidestep the race due to the prelims being a lot to take for such an inexperienced filly…
It really does seem as though no one actually listened to the interview that Matt Chapman did wih Dupre – (‘Dupe’ – might be better??! lol!
I reckon that the reason that she was settled last time was maybe just for experience of being within a pack – due to her somewhat bolting last time?!
You know who I’d rather run an for why!
The JC is going to be hard enough for me choosing between a couple of personal favs…could do without it for the Diane!Not that I’m making it a problemo…but has ‘Zag’ yet to run 2000…
1&1 being the furthest so far?hi Zen, taken a while to get back… yeah, on reflection I’m sure you’re both right and I would imagine Rosanara would be the one for connections in any case for that race which I would be pleased about as I don’t think she’s got the turn of foot to win it.
Didn’t see the Royer Dupre interview with Chapman.The Sandringham looks a hot little race today as well, and I think German fillies are often underestimated, so I’d like to see Kali in there at the finish, but there are so many you could fancy for this.
Simon doesn’t run after all that…. wise decision
..we do at least have an old fashioned ‘Derby’ today, rather than the somewhat elitist affair that Epsom has become of late.
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