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There’s still no update from what I can see on the ground conditions. On the 11th it was deemed good to soft but there was stormy weather forecast yesterday and from what I can gather from a few quotes it had arrived in the afternoon. How long it stayed around for I do not know.
In the 2000 those at the top of the betting have proved versatile toward conditions but will likely be hoping it doesn’t turn into a slog as they look decent, quickening types.
Wootton heads the market at around 2/1 and although short enough, he warrants great respect after his reappearance win against today’s rival Olmedo. It was a very tight finish though (a head in it) and it may be overturned this time around with Olmedo priced around 11/4.
Wootton had to make his own pace that day on heavy/soft ground and when challenged by Olmedo over a furlong out they both quickened smartly all the way to the line. If Wootton gets a good lead into the race today then I would hope he can show a turn of foot superior to his rivals.On bare form Dice Roll enters calculations after a convincing 5 length demolition of his rivals over 7f on heavy/soft ground last month and one of those in behind (Louis D’or) finished closer to Wootton & Olmedo next time out but you have to factor in race fitness. He has won over 8f previously but I can’t find any comments in running so its hard to gauge how comfortable a success it was and the feeling is he may just be a better horse over 7f. He is a fair price at 6/1. He’s also been ridden predominantly by Cristian Demuro who of course rides Olmedo for Jean-Claude Rouget and I don’t know if he would had the option to pick and choose.
US Navy Flag ran no sort of race on heavy ground on his comeback run but for a horse that likes a bit of toe in the ground it is surprising that it was so flat. He also has to prove stamina for this so he doesn’t scream great value at 6/1. We know how dangerous it is to oppose any AOB runner so I can’t dismiss his chances altogether.
Hey Gaman comes into this off the back of a decent third in the Greenham but this is a big step up and he needs to have come on a bundle for that.
John Gosden duo Il Primo Sole and Kings Shield don’t look anywhere near good enough and the rest look equally out of their depth.I’m still waiting on conditions but if its genuine soft ground then I’ll play a small Godolphin double on Wootton/Musis Amica. If good to soft then I’m happy to give Wootton a small to medium sized wager as my only play.
The 1000 looks a fairly open race with better each way options. I’ll add just a few of my own thoughts to the runners and riders.
Musis Amica 4/1 – The softer the better for this one and Andre Fabre has expressed concern if the ground isn’t deep enough but says she is in fine order. This is only her 3rd run and she won nicely in the prep for this so she may still be classy enough whatever the weather.
Polydream 9/2 – Beat Laurens over 7f last year and went into Arc day as a hot favourite for the Prix Marcel Boussac but was beaten by the big Godolphin outsider Wild Illusion. Freddy Head said she had a setback over the winter and hasn’t been able to ready her for a prep but has been very happy with her progress coming into this. Improvement required but it is likely.
Barkaa 13/2 – Convincing 4 length winner over 9f on heavy/soft going last month beating Soustraction (who was about 5 lengths behind Polydream in the Boussac) and will need to step up her game again to win this.
Wind Chimes 8/1 – Andre Fabre has been positive about this one and gives her a good chance on better ground after coming unstuck behind stablemate Musis Amica. She looked progressive on her last run of 2017 and has a live chance but still has it to prove.
Could It Be Love 10/1 – Intriguing runner for AOB after a resounding success in a Dundalk maiden over 7f where the runner up won easily next time. She kept good company over 5f last year but hasn’t raced on anything slower than good so has that and stamina to prove. Not out of the question.
Coeur De Beaute 12/1 – Arguably the best priced horse in the race after a tidy group 3 success but it wasn’t the strongest race and she also has to prove adept at this extra furlong. She has run 7 times already in her career and its likely improvement will come from elsewhere but she is no forlorn hope.
Sea Prose 14/1 – Frankie gets the leg up on this one who finished 2nd to Musis Amica last time out and the trainer believes the softer the better for this one so if it is fairly testing then she could run into a place but I have a feeling it will be at worst soft in places.
Teppal enters the ‘could be anything’ category but will need to take a marked step up, Mission Impassible was only a head behind Polydream in the Boussac, Zonza looks outclassed, Capla Temptress could run a big race at big odds now back with Marco Botti and the rest look out of their depth.
Still waiting on that ground report
I did Wootton a good while ago when I discovered he wasn’t going to Newmarket. The odds then were 13/2.
He ran differently last time out, setting off as the target at the front. In his previous two starts he had stalked and then burst clear in the closing stages. He was reported as being behind in his work at home and that was probably why he never went to the Prix Djebel.
Olmedo was said to be Rouget’s best 2YO and although he was surprisingly good odds in his winning debut, I was a bit disappointed that he could not beat Happily in the Lagardere. I have always slightly preferred Wootton.
Dice Roll seemed to make a massive leap forward last time at good odds taken by some of the members here. I just felt I would like to see him repeat the feat to make sure it wasn’t a fluke. We will find out today.
US Navy Flag was awful on his debut. Gustav Klimt slightly let the form down in the Guineas and the 3rd Kenya was hopeless next time out. Imaging did win next time but for me it looked a weak race. With the trip an added question I can’t back the much raced 2YO from last season and his flagship win in the Dewhurst has had holes run through it with Mendelssohn, Seahenge and Threeandfourpence having to be tracked down with a SatNav after their runs in Kentucky.
As ever the 13/2 on Wootton was the easy part of the equation, landing it will be tougher.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Chivers, Ze Turf has the ground as “Good” with a penetrometer reading of 3.2 at 9.30 this morning.
The time of the first race over 9F was six seconds slower than standard which seems high for Good ground but I am not sure what the pace was like in than contest.
This was the Prix Djebel:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAiZsiJEbsA
Dice Roll looked good there.
In the 1000 I did Wind Chimes at 14/1 and expect Polydream to run well. I just felt the bigger odds worth taking after being favourite and assumed stable number 1 last time on heavy going.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Nice one Steve. Going by Andre Fabre’s comments he more or less implied that he expects Wind Chimes to overturn that form with Musis Amica on good ground but it is basically a ‘wait and find out’ job.
Not easy to call, I was pretty sweet on Brametot last year but have nowhere near the confidence behind any this time around.Backed Olmedo this morning. Thought about taking a bigger price ante-post, but didn’t because his price kept dropping – in the end only got 11/4 but I thought couldn’t let him go unbacked (lesson learned for future).
I thought he would reverse the form with Wootton on better ground, but the Godolphin horse hasn’t ran his race under a mad ride from Barzalona, who is just about the only jockey I can’t ever back. I think Olmedo will be better over further and I expect him to be a fairly short favourite for the French Derby.
A very weird race.
Wootton was far enough back but then came with an Arazi style burst. Instead of just letting him go on the jockey fought hard to restrain him. At the point the horse looked to down tools and just wouldn’t go on. In the end Wootton looked to coast home without putting it all in. Maybe there is a temperament issue there.
Olmedo applied his class and came through to become the warm favourite for the French Derby in my opinion. Rouget is a class trainer and Alex Pantall simply never supped the same milk as Jean-Claude early in life.
US Navy Flag probably secured his future as a sprinter and that was a much more encouraging effort from him today. I expect he’ll be warm for the Commonwealth Cup now.
I would be inclined to think that Wootton will sport some kind of headgear next time.
Well done Olmedo fans.
I noticed that Muthmir, who ran earlier, was described in French as “William Haggas’s Pensioner”
Bit harsh that.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve backed Olmedo at 3/1 for the French Derby, the other’s quoting offer 9/4.
I can’t back Wootton after today at only 4/1.
3/1 looks Fill Your Boots material.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Godolphin’s Key Victory is 4/1 for the French Derby. He won a Listed race at Newmarket and I can’ have it that he was only a point bigger than Olmedo, given the form level gap.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With the talk of the likes of Roaring Lion, Rostropovich and Elarqam being sent over to the French Derby, I’ll be a bit cautious in terms of backing him just yet but I am a big fan of Olmedo. Rouget is a master.
Jean-Claude struggled at times last year with the virus outbreak setting him back. I hope he can bring something good enough to challenge over on these shores again.
Nonsense betting for me today, lazy sunday with a few notes here and there. Amateurish at best.
What is going on at the moment? I’m watching the French channel in the background with no translation and I didn’t even realise the time. Is this another protest moment?
oh its the track from what I can gather, now that I have given it more attention.
There was an outcry from a few jocks, notably Christophe Soumillon, when they were racing there a couple of weeks back.
Rouget immediately confirmed the French Derby was the target for Olmedo. He won’t head to Ascot.
I think Olmedo would tear Rostropovich a new one and Roaring Lion/Elarqam are closely tied on Guineas form. They may clash in the Dante and have to prove themselves there first before holding a similar chance to Olmedo. Even if one of them wins the Dante, it’s highly unlikely that Olmedo will go bigger than 3/1 and if neither of them win, it’s highly likely Olmedo gets cut further.
I’ll be surprised if Olmedo is anything like 3/1 when they line up for the Prix Du Jockey Club.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
These French jockeys are useless. Wind Chimes and Musis Amica sat right out the back as if they had corn growing and in hopeless positions turning in. Musis Amica was simply outpaced and the jockey was shoving the coal on her before she stayed on, but Wind Chimes was travelling kindly enough and simply had far too much to do. She would have needed a rocket from whence she came but she gave it a great go, finishing best in vain, as Freddy Head’s Brother, Pecker Head, made a balls of it from the saddle.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I would imagine I’m not the only one who was chuffed to see David Simcock train his first Classic winner, even if it was a result for the bookies by all accounts. Still she remains unbeaten so she still falls into the ‘could be anything’ bracket. I wonder if anyone who saw her win on debut at Lingfield last August was left thinking that they’d just seen a Classic winner?
I didn’t have a bet in any races today but I agree that they were a bit of a farce all in all and I’m not sure the French 3 year olds are up to much after today’s action.
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