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Hmm, Franchoek does look the triumph type; relentless galloper who will stay further than 2m….just depends on the price on the day. He could easily find one better….tricky…
Hope that helps!
Zip,
Hardly impressive receiving weight from his nearest form rivals Prideus & Bantry Bere who are both exposed.
Tomorrow is D Day for Binocular as he takes on Furmigadelagiusta amongst others in the Adonis at Kempton.
Furmigadelagiusta shouldn’t be underestimated and could be an outsider for the Triumph to consider.
Decent on the flat for Luca Cumani and I was at Wetherby when he made a pleasing debut beating Pagan Starprincess.
She went on to run a cracker against Serabad last week and the fifth Chord has two solid runs against Songe to his name since.
Interesting to see Doubly Guest turned out again so quickly after her failure at Ascot last week and Pierrot Luinare takes her on again.There’s also Beau Michael running in a grade 2 at Fairyhouse,he’d be one of the better Irish juveniles although on official ratings is about 25lbs worse than Franchoek.
I agree that furmigadelaguista is a danger tomorrow, in fact there are are quite few, it looks like possibly the best juvenile novice field on paper that ive seen line up this season and it will be a very interesting race.
Disagree about Beau Michael though, I watched him last time as was watching to see how prince erik would do, that race looked a bit of a joke, the pace was really slow (40 secs which I would say is really bad for a 2 mile hurdle, even on heavy) and beau michael was in a prominent position and stole a load of lengths from the field on the run in. Hopefully he wont be allowed to do the same again tomorrow.
I cant see him in the cheltenham picture myself and am thinking of backing the noel meade horse silverhand who is stoutely bred and has been getting money quite consistentl over the last week or so for the triumph.
…………….Alan King can say what he wants about running in the Triumph but of JP decides differently after tomorrow then he will not be asked he willl be told………….quote]
You may be right but one thing I do know is that Alan doesn’t really get told… I’m sure that JP has slightly more clout than us but the route he wants to take Francheok is the Triumph and that is where I think he’ll go
Huge difference of opinion bewteen the RP and SL websites on his chance……RP forecast im as a 7/1 shot and the SL as a 25/1 shot.
They seem to think he has no chance against Binocular
The horse he beat got closer to Serabad than he did to him and and as Serebad ran well agaiant Franchoek he’s no 25/1 shot in my book……Binoculr is going to have to beat him easily to be a threat to Franchoek IMO but I do think he will………..PN horse looked ok but beat nothing at Tauton the 2nd horse’s form is very moderate and the 3rd horse went of at 100/1.
If Binocular can’t beat this lot he shouldn’t even bi in the Triumph…IMO he’s a good thing today.
You should never take the SL forecasts seriously,they are regularly miles off the mark.
Turned out ok thankfully but that horse of PN’s is much better than I gave him credit for……….the man sees to improve horses better than any trainer I can remember….gave me a fright I can tell you but I only heard the race never and saw it…….however job done….while I had no doubts about him winning, …..Solar Cloud sprung to mind as he got beat there before he won the Triumph due to it being too sharp for him……I was well pleased to read that Nicky Henderson had said he needed every yard of the trip today and would be better suited to Cheltenham………..I will have to see the race first but I am not too worried about how close PN’s horse got to him……….I’m still very hopefull he’ll take the world of beating at Chelters.
Binocular will not be winning at Cheltenham on that performance, as good as the second horse may be, and I would harbour doubts about how ‘up to the job’ Franchoek is – I see no reason why JP would need two (market leaders) in the race if he thought either were likely to win.
It’ll be interesting to see how he separates Captain Cee Bee and Jered for the Supreme Novices’ now aswell. The latter was purchased by McManus after finishing third to Captain Cee Bee, but looked sensational in winning the other day at Punchestown.
JPs festival winner will come from one of those two, assuming Numide doesn’t run
Binocular will not be winning at Cheltenham on that performance, as good as the second horse may be, and I would harbour doubts about how ‘up to the job’ Franchoek is – I see no reason why JP would need two (market leaders) in the race if he thought either were likely to win.
It’ll be interesting to see how he separates Captain Cee Bee and Jered for the Supreme Novices’ now aswell. The latter was purchased by McManus after finishing third to Captain Cee Bee, but looked sensational in winning the other day at Punchestown.
JPs festival winner will come from one of those two, assuming Numide doesn’t run
Don’t know how you can make a statement like that mate. Binocular had to really race for the first time in his life over hurdles today. He’s won what turned out to be a decent race every bit as good as anything else around has won IMO. There are more than a few horses who have had a trial at Kempton and not run up to what they are capable of and then won at Cheltenham………….i.e. Solar Cloud had won a decent race and then got beat there due to the course beeing too sharp but was running on like a tiger at the end…..he drifted way out in the market to 40/1 despite his trainer saying the trip course never suited him………a very similar situation to taday only Binocular won…….Solar Cloud did just as his trainer said he would……. shone at Cheltenham and won.
You tell us Binocular has no chance and JP’s winner will come from those other two unless Numide runs????????? …..Numide wouldn’t win at Cheltenham if he started now
That horse hasn’t shown one bit of form over hurdles that even entitles him to go to Cheltenham.McManus isn;t averse to running more than one in the race particularly with different trainers, remember Joe Mac and Cardinal Hill both running in the Supreme Novices and I’m sure there are countless other examples. If King and Henderson both want to aim at the Triumph, then I would expect him to run both.
I think binocular is still very much in the cheltenham picture, he made a fair few mistakes, and Henderson’s post race statement that with only a few weeks till cheltenahm the horse was not 100%, makes logical sense and explains why his jumping was not as good on this occasion.
Todays race was a very good pace, set by his own pace setter, to assess how he can quicken off the likely pace set by franchoek at cheltenham, having proved to a speedy sort on debut. The time of the race was pretty much identical to Pigeon Islands race earlier in the day, and the pace throughout the race was visible. Nicholls rates his horse as very good and to be fair Binocular has beaten him.
On Franchoeks best piece of form he through in a faultless performance to beat Serabad by 6 lengths with serabad looking to be a very average horse somewhere around the mid 120s. Binocular on the other hand has turned out a load of mistakes and put a good field to bed today and the nicholls horse definitely looks to be a very good horse well into the 130s at least.
He never produced the same brilliant turn of foot as on his debut but that was a different pace he was quickening off, and to be fair there is a question as to how much more he would have produced had he jumped fluently all the way. The horse is tough and wheras he isnt banker material at cheltenham hes most definitely still in the mix in my view and the prices of 5/1 look about correct.
One thing that the nicholls horse, and the placed outsiders in the Pigeon Island race prove is that there are plenty of horses who are havent had their pace this season and have been forgotten about, but they can pull out bundles when they get it. The supreme novice and triumph certainly look like being fast paced races and with Franchoek as a likely pace setter, who lacks any special turn of foot still sits as a sitting duck at around 2-1 IMHO.
I think Nick Henderson was making sure JP got the message loud and clear today where he thinks the horse should run….when he said the course the Triumph is run on would suit him better than the Supreme.
Turned out ok thankfully but that horse of PN’s is much better than I gave him credit for……….the man sees to improve horses better than any trainer I can remember….gave me a fright I can tell you but I only heard the race never and saw it…….however job done….while I had no doubts about him winning, …..Solar Cloud sprung to mind as he got beat there before he won the Triumph due to it being too sharp for him……I was well pleased to read that Nicky Henderson had said he needed every yard of the trip today and would be better suited to Cheltenham………..I will have to see the race first but I am not too worried about how close PN’s horse got to him……….I’m still very hopefull he’ll take the world of beating at Chelters.
Absolutely astounded if Binocular is up to winning at Cheltenham – can’t have it that that form is any good to be honest. All out to beat his one serious rival….no thanks.
Even those at work who have been telling me for weeks that Binocular would win the Triumph were disheartened after yesterday.
His jumping is nowhere near good enough on what we have seen so far and I still believe that Franchoek’s experience of the course at Cheltenham has to be a big plus.
His jumping aint bad either!Interesting to learn that JP McManus has offered up Franchoek as his best hope of winning at the festival. Even so, the Triumph Hurdle is always one notoriously hard race to win, let alone solve.
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I understand your concern Smithy but it’s just typical of Nicky Henderson’s way of training them I’m sure Katiarino and Alone Success ran in worse races at Kempton pre the Triumph. Time will tell
I think people who say that binocular has no chance after yesterdays run are being more than a tad unrealistic. I could understand that people were expecting a facile win, I on the other hand wasnt, I had expected at least one challenge to be fought off yesterday and that was a challenge from very decent nicholls horse, who unlike any of the horses beaten by franchoek at cheltenham actually looks to have the potential to do well at the top level and is being aimed at the 4yo Novice Hurdle at aintree for which he will probably be one of the main contenders in the betting, not to mention that binocular has already stuffed the outright favorite for the fred winter Crackaway Jack.
The Racing Post have rated yesterdays performance (which lets face it, leaves the horse open to plenty of improvement) at 138 only 4 lbs behind franchoeks run at cheltenham. In his first race he proved that he has the best turn of foot of the juvenile division, yesterday he proved that he travels and battles. If his jumping improves (to as good as it was for his debut) by cheltenham he’ll be hard to beat.
I can understand that people dont fancy him, indeed I wouldnt back at his current price myself, but to say he has no chance is ridiculous, he’s hardly out of the reckoning.
It wasn’t the fact that he had to work hard for victory that disappointed me but that he hardly jumped a hurdle even in the early stages. One thing Triumph winners do is jump well and comparing him with Franchoek on that front there can be only one result. I tried to lay him after yesterday’s race but didn’t get matched and you now need to go double-figure prices to get him in your book- that sums up his chance.
That horse hasn’t shown one bit of form over hurdles that even entitles him to go to Cheltenham.
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