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Smithy:<br>
You must understand there are some oddballs out there who attend British racecourses armed with a trundle wheel.
A trundle wheel can be put to many purposes, sonny.
Pru, i’m still bemused. most of the races use a large part of the straight @Southwell and in the longer races they are travelling wide’ish around the bend.
If there is a discrepancy in the distance lets get onto HQ and give them some grief, :biggrin: it’s not good enough, we put up with enough **** as it is.
I had wondered about the Southwell timings @ 5 but i only started using their figures more recently.
I published something about this 18 months back and a RP reporter got onto Southwell about the matter at the time. They claimed they had remeasured the trip and that it was correct. They could say black is white knowing that no-one could easily prove them wrong. I may do a follow up after a bit more research.
I used to apply a different poundage for every distance at every track but some of the differences were so minimal I gave up and went back to overall notional figures. It saved me a lot of time and since I tend to back only those I reckon to be very well handicapped, as opposed to marginally so, I didn’t think the extra effort was worth it as it probably wouldn’t impact upon my betting.
Quote: from Prufrock on 12:21 pm on Sep. 26, 2006[br]OK. In my opinion, you should multiply the "usual" poundage allowance by 0.78 for Fibresand and 1.05 for Polytrack, but you have to factor in time as well as distance and should ideally factor in the precise track as well (I do this through standard times).
Still fine-tuning my calculations in this area after 30 years of trying…
Is it worth it? I think so.<br>
re-read Dr Peter Mays "New All Weather Scale" and he seems to be of similar thinking, interesting that he also refers to going extremes, track configuration
<br>If only……..
<br>
Is that ("New All-Weather Scale" ) a book, empty, or an article?
(Edited by Prufrock at 11:55 pm on Sep. 26, 2006)
I have that book somewhere but can’t find it (possibly lost in the move). Any chance of a precis?
This general jist(bits of text missing) and you’d probaly need to read the whole section Pru, but it’ll give you the thinking
Quote:
In order to use a statistical aproach to approximate the weight scale it is necessary to examine a large sample of historical races. For this example all seven furlong races run at Lingfield constitute the sample
Average(mean) racetime of winners = 86.7
Average(mean) BHB winner rating = 63
Average (mean) weight carried =126lbs
He the goes on about normalising and regession method for time reduction
For the 7f course at Lingers this factor is approxitmately 0.0485
7f =1540 yards<br>assuming 1L = 3ydrs then 7f=513.3 L<br>Ave racetime = 86.7<br>horses run at 5.92 L per second (5.92=513.3/86.7)<br>from historical results we know 1lb = 0.0485<br>1 second=20.62lbs<br>1L=20.62/5.62 =3.5lbs
<br>—————————-
<br> Would be interesting to read more of his thinking on the above
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:51 am on Sep. 27, 2006)
Theres more text talking about using the method on any track and race distance and then he goes on to his conclusions where he states using the method above can be extended for use on extreme going and different track configuration
<br>Shame he don’t go into more detail on the above
(Edited by empty wallet at 1:02 am on Sep. 27, 2006)
Quote: from empty wallet on 12:46 am on Sep. 27, 2006[br]
For the 7f course at Lingers this factor is approxitmately 0.0485
<br>Missed a chunk for the above that is probably crucial :o :biggrin:
For the 7f course at Lingers this factor is approxitmately 0.0485 seconds per 1lb in weight or 1 point on the BHB handicap scale. In other words a horse rated 80 will run the course 0.0485 seconds faster than one carrying the same weigh rated 79, on average.
Since 1 point on BHB rating scale =1lb in weight caried(ie if one horse is rated 1 point higher than another it will carry 1lb more in a handicap) then a relationship cn be determined by the calculation
<br>Calculation in the above post (7f=1540yds etc)
<br>Probably should have just copied whole section from book :biggrin:
<br>BTW and i know it may be staring me directly in the face,but what does the 15 relate to in the ditance beaten*15/racedistance formula and why/what/where/who determines it should be 15?
Alltering the 15 it gives a different poundage allowance(ie 1 BL*22/5= 4.4lb instead of 3lb) so if you can determine what the 15 relates to and the why/whatwhere/who, you could maybe adjust it for different going/courses
<br>Wish some ****** would write a book or at least some articles about all this so i could understand how these things are calculated- not every ****** went to Uni, studied properly(i’d more interesting stuff to do at time tbh) and some workings on this stuff would be a great help to us lesser mortals
<br>
(Edited by empty wallet at 7:06 am on Sep. 27, 2006)
Thanks very much, empty.
The 15 is a guess, and is a wrong guess in my view. The figure should be higher. Distance alone is also insufficient, as time should be incorporated as well. Clearly 5f run in 55 sec is quite different from 5f run in 65 sec, and the results back this up.
It should also, strictly speaking, be not a constant but a variable depending on the horse’s own body mass (which varies with age, distance and ability), though we can only guess at such matters in the UK, unfortunately…
(Edited by Prufrock at 9:21 am on Sep. 27, 2006)
Mmm, that sounds a vey complicated equation Pru – let me know when you’ve worked it out please ;)
Better still get some equations in print like Dr May has done above if yer can, so i can see yer working and copy em :biggrin:
(Edited by empty wallet at 10:03 am on Sep. 27, 2006)
As it happens, I will be taking a sabbatical shortly and have considered getting something down in print.
Others on here will tell you, however, that there is no money in writing books about racing analysis.
I’m not bothered if yer don’t make owt out of putting it in print :biggrin: i just wanna read it and probably pinch some of it :o :biggrin:
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