Festival runners at Aintree ?

[monksfield]

Am I right in thinking they have a terrible record, and does anyone have any illuminating stats ?

Thanks.

[PAULCS]

More than a few have followed up over the years but last year was a bad one with only Our Vic & Tidal Bay doing so.

Am I right in thinking that less are taking in both this year? I can only think of Wichita Lineman from the opening days winners and possibly none from day 2 (Tricky Trickster?).

[Cav]

Since 2000

Aintree – LTO Cheltenham
88-943 = 9.33% and -£237.45 to a £1 stake

Aintree – Won or placed LTO Cheltenham
33-192 = 17.19% and +£6.97 to a £1 stake

[PAULCS]

Excellent Cav, 17% seems decent and probably is but is it when you’re talking about class horses, the majority of whom will have gone off favourite at Aintree for the follow up?

[Cav]

Here’s a nice one…..

1st, 2nd or 3rd at Cheltenham LTO and SP 100/30 or less at Aintree since 2000…

32-76…..42.11% = +£19.12 to a £1 stake or estimated around £31 on Betfair

Horses…..
07/04/2000 Direct Route 1.38
07/04/2000 Best Mate 0.36
05/04/2002 Native Upmanship 3.33
05/04/2002 In Contrast 2.5
05/04/2002 Carbury Cross 3
06/04/2002 Armaturk 2.5
04/04/2003 Native Upmanship 1.25
04/04/2003 Irish Hussar 3
04/04/2003 Iris’s Gift 0.9
01/04/2004 Iris’s Gift 0.57
03/04/2004 Well Chief 1.88
03/04/2004 Rhinestone Cowboy 2.5
14/05/2004 Bohemian Spirit 1.75
21/11/2004 Over The Creek 1.75
07/04/2005 Fota Island 3.33
07/04/2005 Faasel 2.75
08/04/2005 Sleeping Night 3
08/04/2005 Moscow Flyer 0.44
09/04/2005 Ashley Brook 3
20/11/2005 Fair Along 0.57
06/04/2006 Mighty Man 2.75
06/04/2006 Detroit City 3
07/04/2006 Straw Bear 2
07/04/2006 Star De Mohaison 2.75
07/04/2006 Black Jack Ketchum 0.61
08/04/2006 Refinement 2.75
12/04/2007 Tidal Bay 2.25
12/04/2007 Mighty Man 1.88
12/04/2007 Katchit 1
12/04/2007 Exotic Dancer 1.5
03/04/2008 Binocular 1.38
05/04/2008 Tidal Bay 1.5

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

unless I’ve mistaken the gist of this post, it’s not specifying just festival winners, but festival runners in general. As has been pointed out, the winners haven’t got a great track record, but certainly (off the top of my head) the majority of big race winners at Aintree have run at the Festival (again, off the top of my head, Al Eile is the only obvious one that springs to mind in being a recent exception)

[apracing]

I’ve been through the first two days cards already and all the big questions are going to be about horses that finished second at Cheltenham and whether you want to back them at short prices here.

On Thursday, Walkon, Denman and Kalahari King all fit this profile, although the last named has an alternative race on Saturday.

On Friday, it’s Medermit, Voy Por Ustedes and Pride Of Dulcote.

And on Saturday, Celestial Halo is going to be favourite for the Aintree Hurdle.

Would you rather be a backer or a layer of those seven? My feeling is that most of them will be overbet and I’d be a layer.

[monksfield]

Since 2000

Aintree – LTO Cheltenham
88-943 = 9.33% and -£237.45 to a £1 stake

Aintree – Won or placed LTO Cheltenham
33-192 = 17.19% and +£6.97 to a £1 stake

Many thanks, just what I was looking for.

[Grasshopper]

My feeling is that most of them will be overbet and I’d be a layer.

I’m in 100% agreement with that, Alan.

[yeats]

A full house today (apart from the amateur race) of winners that ran at Cheltenham and some decent prices amongst them.

[apracing]

I was on a preview panel on Tuesday with Paddy Brennan, who made a good point about this. He argued that the gound at Cheltenham for the last two years had been ideal for most horses, in that they weren’t having to go at top speed for two or three miles, they weren’t getting jarred up by fast ground, neither were they exhausted by heavy ground. Therefore, three weeks was plenty of time for them to recover and repeat their form at Aintree.

He was confident that horses he’d ridden work and schooling earlier this week were fully recovered – and one of those he mentioned was Tartak.

[davidjohnson]

Here’s a nice one…..

1st, 2nd or 3rd at Cheltenham LTO and SP 100/30 or less at Aintree since 2000…

32-76…..42.11% = +£19.12 to a £1 stake or estimated around £31 on Betfair

Horses…..
07/04/2000 Direct Route 1.38
07/04/2000 Best Mate 0.36
05/04/2002 Native Upmanship 3.33
05/04/2002 In Contrast 2.5
05/04/2002 Carbury Cross 3
06/04/2002 Armaturk 2.5
04/04/2003 Native Upmanship 1.25
04/04/2003 Irish Hussar 3
04/04/2003 Iris’s Gift 0.9
01/04/2004 Iris’s Gift 0.57
03/04/2004 Well Chief 1.88
03/04/2004 Rhinestone Cowboy 2.5
14/05/2004 Bohemian Spirit 1.75
21/11/2004 Over The Creek 1.75
07/04/2005 Fota Island 3.33
07/04/2005 Faasel 2.75
08/04/2005 Sleeping Night 3
08/04/2005 Moscow Flyer 0.44
09/04/2005 Ashley Brook 3
20/11/2005 Fair Along 0.57
06/04/2006 Mighty Man 2.75
06/04/2006 Detroit City 3
07/04/2006 Straw Bear 2
07/04/2006 Star De Mohaison 2.75
07/04/2006 Black Jack Ketchum 0.61
08/04/2006 Refinement 2.75
12/04/2007 Tidal Bay 2.25
12/04/2007 Mighty Man 1.88
12/04/2007 Katchit 1
12/04/2007 Exotic Dancer 1.5
03/04/2008 Binocular 1.38
05/04/2008 Tidal Bay 1.5

A fantastic example of why stats punters will be in continual search for the holy grail. Take an arbitrary sp of 10/3 and you can backdate your figures to make a profit.

[Author]

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