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Misty for Me was left in and should hack up this field of nothing horses. 9LB clear of the 2nd best horse and the stiff mile will be perfect for her.
Yes she should win. EASILY!
Sahpresa has been well backed this morning and has the best chance of winning. But she is usually held up for a late run. With little in the way of pace horses here she might leave it too late.
Lily Of The Valley
is usually another French hold up horse. Hopefully she’ll be ridden more prominently given her record over further. Price makes her worth taking the chance on. Any rain would help too.
Antara is a good mare but it would have to be a poor Group 1 for her to win.
River Jetez
comes from South Africa and should not be under-estimated judging by her Dubai form. Can race prominently, which should help. Unproven on a soft surface. Worth a saver at around 12/1.
Joviality
was held up when winning the Musidora, then raced more prominently over this trip in the overly strong run Coronation. Musidora second was well up in that race and can be rated as at least upsides Barefoot Lady. 16/1 looks excellent value as long as prominent tactics are kept.
Stable companion Maqaasid’s chance probably relies on the ground and pace. Always held up and unlikely to stay on a soft surface given a truly run race.
I’m A Dreamer disappointed at Ascot on a soft surface. Could be flattered by the Newmarket win after being held up when the wind was in their faces.
Timepiece won a minor event last time but has looked temperamental.
Memory refused to race at Newmarket when a strong wind was blowing through the stalls. Coronation Stakes winner even refused to enter them that day. Was also drawn on the outside which did not help. May not be as temperamental as some think, however her form is not as good either. Still could improve but does not want rain and doubtful stayer in a truly run race.
First City
shouldn’t really be good enough but did improve on her previous two races and can do so again. Held up but has a good turn of foot and form over shorter. At around 66/1 on betfair is worth a chance.
Masaya
should not be good enough. However she is the only confirmed prominent runner so may get an easy lead. Yet to have the soft ground this year needed to produce her best. Unexposed on that surface though obviously needs to improve a good deal. Clive Brittain has provided shocks in this race before and at over 100/1 is worth a pound or two.
My 100% book:
Sahpresa 11/4,Lily Of the Valley 5/1
, Antara 15/2,
River Jetez 9/1
,
Joviality 10/1
, Maqaasid 14/1, I’m A Dreamer 16/1, Memory 16/1,
First City 28/1
, Timepiece 33/1,
Masaya 66/1
Value Is EverythingDo 99% of Jockeys even bother with the pace judging thingy anymore?
Tom Queally….genius or just ‘awake’?
Having criticised Queally in the Coronation Cup, 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace; have to praise him here. Although in truth Timepiece does usually track the pace anyway. When interviewed on RUK he said he’d discussed the race with Sir Henry who had told him not to be too far away.
Also have to criticise all bar Callan on the leader too. The slow pace predictable. Connections, jockeys and their agents simply did not do their homework. Thought Buick should have been where Queally was and what was Cosgrave doing? River Jetez is very capable of racing prominently yet held up out the back. Lily Of The Valley is a mile and a quarter filly, she’s never going to win from there given that pace. Idiots.
Value Is EverythingI’m not praising Queally. He was just doing the obvious thing.
The rest of them bar the jockey on Masaya want shooting. Another pathetic running of a Group 1 in Britain/Ireland this year.
Went rather heavily into Saphresa and very disappointed. Do not understand how these group one races can so frequently have no pace to the point where they run in terms of a crawl, then a sprint, making it a virtual crapshoot. Outrageous.
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Without repeating any points I’ve already made on the Sahpresa Ride thread in the main section, I’m interested in the perception that slow or "false" pace somehow reduces either the interest or value of our top races.
Group 1’s are there to test the whole armoury of a horse, not just how well it can accelerate off an even/fast pace, at a stage of the race when the front runners are tiring and going slower.
In the 19th century – as in French races today – races (over any distance) were almost always dawdles until the final two furlongs, at which point the frantic sprint to the line began. Of course top races in the early part of the century were often run in match heats, when horses might have to run the full distance of up to 2 miles several times in one afternoon, so this mode of racing was absolutely necessary.
For us today, a slow run Group 1 reveals many interesting things about a horse – such as its tactical pace in the early part of a race, its ability to settle, its ability to lie up with the pace without taking off, and of course its basic sprinting speed at the business end, and the duration of its "run" (very few horses are gifted with the ability to accelerate twice).
All this is important for the breeding industry, and of course these races are fascinating spectacles from the "purist" point of view. In the case of the Falmouth, we saw the best horse in the race beaten. And (without getting into the jockeyship debate addressed elsewhere) we saw her beaten, in essence because another runner found a chink in her armour and exposed her vulnerability in a slow run race with a sprint finish.
The same thing happened to Soviet Song when she was going for her 3rd Falmouth, when she was beaten by some markedly inferior rivals despite covering the last furlong and a half faster than anything else. It’s what Group 1 races are about, and why they are so continually fascinating. And professional punters profit from working out these puzzles too.
All this is important for the breeding industry, and of course these races are fascinating spectacles from the "purist" point of view. In the case of the Falmouth, we saw the best horse in the race beaten. And (without getting into the jockeyship debate addressed elsewhere) we saw her beaten, in essence because another runner found a chink in her armour and exposed her vulnerability in a slow run race with a sprint finish.
It’s what Group 1 races are about, and why they are so continually fascinating. And professional punters profit from working out these puzzles too.
Disagree Pinza.
The breeding industry surely wants to know who the best horses are. Sometimes there is a "false result" purely because of a slow pace.
"Another runner found a chink in her armour". Did it? The reason for Sahpresa’s defeat was not because she lacked a "sprint finish". Sahpresa did remarkably well to get as close from where she started her run. Her top speed was undoubtedly faster than Timepiece. The French horse lost purely because Timepiece had a head start in the sprint for home.
An overly strong pace can also show a "false result" when leaders go off too fast. Resulting in those held up or dropped out the back coming through to beat those who’ve set off at a suicidally fast pace. Zoffany almost beat Frankel because the latter’s middle section of the St James’s Palace took too much out of him. Frankel’s winning margin does not show his superiority and that can’t be good for the breeding industry. Where as Immortal Verse’s Coronation Stakes probably over-estimates her superiority over the field for the same reason. An overly strong can show just as much of a "false result" as slowly run event. Yet the winner who comes from last to first often gets the "what a horse to be able to come from there" label. They don’t realise how it can be a great help to be dropped out the back.
Yes, they are fascinating races for punters. It is great fun identifying horses who have done exceptionally well to finish in their position considering the pace of the individual race. These can start at better (value) odds than their true ability. Some might be disappointed with Sahpresa’s second place and mark her down for it. Where as in fact the opposite is true. She deserves great credit and in a race with more prominent runners, can be expected to leave this form well behind.
Value Is EverythingAbsolutely incredible how Sahpresa managed to finish there off a pace like that. She’ll no doubt be marked down by the bookmakers and others and that gives us a great chance to capitalise when she pops back over in October for her annual canter up the Rowley Mile (is it still at the Rowley Mile?). She’s a cert for that with any sort of pace in front.
It’s a bit like Vettel this weekend just gone. Whereas he was often 4/5 to qualify on pole, his dominance in the dry all season bar a strategy cock-up by the team in China and constant starting from pole position meant that Vettel was a farcical 8/15 to qualify 1st this weekend. The weather played havoc, he didn’t get a chance to put in a proper lap and duly qualified 2nd, just 0.032 behind Webber. Vettel started roughly 7/4 to win the race, cruised by Webber before the first corner and basically lost because of a very controversial change of rules by the FIA. That meant that Ferrari had an advantage and Red Bull had a disadvantage in the way their cars were running.
The next race in Germany reverts back to the regulations that were in place at Valencia 2 weeks ago (where Vettel had a laugh in front and completely dominated the entire weekend) and will remain that way for the rest of the season. Germany’s a similar track to Valencia and Silverstone in that they’re very fast low-downforce tracks with several fast bends and few slow and tight bends, which suits Red Bull, therefore Vettel will be fantastic value for pole and the race win in a fortnight’s time. Hopefully. Do a double with Sahpresa for her annual canter around.
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