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It doesn’t look a particularly bad week weather wise so hopefully the ground will not be much worse than good.
If that is the case it will be a big plus for Amazing Maria. Almost certainly a bigger plus for her than Usherette. The French filly has looked very impressive but as yet has only won two Group 2’s. Last season Amazing Maria inflicted her only defeat in a Group 1.
However progressive Usherette might be she shouldn’t be odds on with Amazing Maria at 12/1. If the ground remains good that price is bound to shorten.
NEMORALIA 6/1
Looks like she get fast ground she needs ran a good race at Ascot but think on quicker surface be more to come from her she my bet here.
Something of a concern the price hasn’t collapsed yet. Is there a doubt about her turning up? Won the race last year so if the ground is okay can’t see why they would looking elsewhere. I see her as a 5/1 shot on the day.
The weather is about as much trustworthy as a bent politician
Probably see a bit more movement in the couple of days
I like Nemoralia, connections wouldn’t hear of defeat last time and I think she will be thereaboutsGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
The weather looks very settled up to Saturday and the ground is already good so I would expect Nemoralia to be 7/2 at best come Friday afternoon. We know Usherette has the stamina for further and that’s probably why she looked so comfortable back down to a mile on soft ground at Ascot.
I really like them both but Usherette is a dreadful price considering the challengers. This is a good race.
Sad to see Ashadihan didn’t get an entry. She would have held a similar (if not better) change to Nemoralia but might have been 3-4x the price.
Amazing Maria hasn’t proved she is as good as she was last season. I don’t think she has been well placed by connections this year, running at 9f and then on soft ground.
Arabian Queen beating Golden Horn at odds of 50/1 is the only winner to come out of last year’s Falmouth in 20 runs since.
Putting Amazing Maria’s win over Usherette into context we need to consider that the Fabre filly was pitched into Group 1 company straight from an eleven grand conditions race and was facing previous group winners, including Group 1. She was also facing older opposition on only her third career start. Had she been trained by a lesser name than Andre Fabre, she would have been 25/1 or more, instead of 10/1.
The Usherette from last year’s race is not the one Amazing Maria will face this time. The year younger filly’s rating is a good bit higher now and probably hasn’t peaked yet. Whilst Amazing Maria hasn’t managed to win again since the day these two fillies previously clashed, Usherette has won all four of her races, including a revenge win over Amazing Maria, by more than 5 lengths.
David O’Meara seems to believe that faster ground will see Amazing Maria reverse the form with Usherette from the Dahlia but I think he may not be giving Fabre’s filly credit for having made good improvement from last year. I also don’t like horses who lose the winning habit and if you are running them on ground they don’t like then you are not exactly helping the horse’s confidence.
I am not sure about Aidan’s two 3yo’s, as both Alice Springs and Ballydoyle look some way behind Minding. Nemoralia hasn’t excited me as much as she has beguiled some punters but I believe she holds a better chance than Amazing Maria.
I feel Usherette will be a tough nut to crack and can see her quickening up to win this fairly cosily. The odds of reward are poor though and I won’t be having a bet on her. Just a race to watch but I would rather do that than back one I can’t see winning.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
if and its a big if,they ride Alice Spring closer to the pace she could run well at a price on going she will love.Fingers crossed they do this,i have backed her each way
Well, Nemoralia is out of the race and heads for the Prix Jean Prat instead.
I’ll just wait and see if money comes for Amazing Maria and Usherette drifts to a backable price. Otherwise it’s a race to pass on for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ashadihan 25/1? Madness.
She held a very similar chance to late defector Nemoralia. With Amazing Maria possibly gone at the game and Usherette certainly not unbeatable, I think she’s the e/w answer.
I like Usherette, I backed her at Newmarket in the Dahlia Stakes, and thought she
would win last time out at Ascot. She looks a very decent filly, but I’m not sure
anything has thrown down a real challenge to her yet in her 2 UK races. I think
ALICE SPRINGS is only now really coming to hand, she looked to
have improved, and may have been a bit unlucky in running last time out in the
Coronation Stakes. I don’t think there will be a lot between them at the end, but I
prefer the look of the 8/1 on Alice Springs as opposed to the 4/6 or thereabouts for
Usherette. She will do for me.I think supporters of Amazing Maria would have wanted the race run today. The closer the ground is to good to firm the better for her. Looks like there is now a fair chance of rain before tomorrow and you never know how heavy a shower is going to be. Add in they have watered and that’s not good news.
Ordinarily, I might save on the favourite but she is already priced up as if she will take another step forward and that isn’t a given. She took a little time to switch off at Ascot and it could well be that someone will try and dictate a false pace.
The weather looks very settled up to Saturday and the ground is already good so I would expect Nemoralia to be 7/2 at best come Friday afternoon. We know Usherette has the stamina for further and that’s probably why she looked so comfortable back down to a mile on soft ground at Ascot.
I really like them both but Usherette is a dreadful price considering the challengers. This is a good race.
Was never the intention for Nemoralia to run here, was always going to France – really needs good fast ground and flat track as has that initial burst of acceleration. Surprised she was quoted for race.
One of owners is from my neck of the woods and lot of my circle know him very well, and we have all been following (and backing) her progress since he got her – was recommended by Fallon to buy her at sales, and lets says its been a pretty good investment.
They really fancied it for Ascot but the ground just didn’t come right for her.
Not looked at France race but I would imagine it would be favourite for that.
The weather looks very settled up to Saturday and the ground is already good so I would expect Nemoralia to be 7/2 at best come Friday afternoon. We know Usherette has the stamina for further and that’s probably why she looked so comfortable back down to a mile on soft ground at Ascot.
I really like them both but Usherette is a dreadful price considering the challengers. This is a good race.
Was never the intention for Nemoralia to run here, was always going to France – really needs good fast ground and flat track as has that initial burst of acceleration. Surprised she was quoted for race.
One of owners is from my neck of the woods and lot of my circle know him very well, and we have all been following (and backing) her progress since he got her – was recommended by Fallon to buy her at sales, and lets says its been a pretty good investment.
They really fancied it for Ascot but the ground just didn’t come right for her.
Not looked at France race but I would imagine it would be favourite for that.
The Prix Jean Prat field is as follows:-
1 FIRST SELECTION SPA M.PS. 3 A. 58 495 ABDULLA AL MANSOORI S. CRISFORD
2 ZELZAL M.PS. 3 A. 58 500 AL SHAQAB RACING JC. ROUGET (S)
3 ZONDERLAND GB M.PS. 3 A. 58 485 CHEVELEY PARK STUD CG. COX
4 DEGAS Ger M.Ps. 3 A. 58 505 ECURIE ROETTGEN M. KLUG
5 DICTON (GB) M.PS. 3 A. 58 495 ROBERT NG G. BIETOLINI
6 FREE FROM DESIRE M.PS. 3 a. 58 325 ROBERT NG A&G. BOTTI (S)
7 STORMY ANTARCTIC (GB) M.PS. 3 A. 58 515 PAK KWAN SIU ECD. WALKER
8 ALIGNEMENT (GB) M.PS. 3 a. 58 460 WERTHEIMER & FRERE C. LAFFON-PARIAS
9 POSITIVE VIBRATION IRE F.PS. 3 a. 56,5 310 AL SHAQAB RACING JC. ROUGET (S)
10 SPECTRE F.PS. 3 A. 56,5 495 MM RACING M. MUNCH 69.170
11 NEMORALIA USA F.PS. 3 A. 56,5 505 T. ALLAN/J. LOVAT/C. PIGRAM J. NOSEDAI know a few forum members love Zelzal, and apart from a lacklustre effort in the French 2000 Guineas he has looked really good so far. I backed him in that race won by The Gurkha and was gutted by the showing he put up. Guineas flop Stormy Antarctic is also in the field but has something to prove now.
Nemoralia is favourite with Paddy Power at 9/4, while Zelzal is 3/1. The full list with the firm is:-
Nemoralia 9/4
Zelzal 3/1
Dicton 6/1
Zonderland 13/2
Spectre 13/2
First Selection 7/1
Stormy Antarctic 10/1
Degas 12/1
Alignement 33/1
Free From Desire 200/1I will probably give Zelzal the nod at these odds.
I’ll just pass on the Falmouth. I expect Usherette to win by a couple of lengths here but there are better bets at better odds this week.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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