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Steve you will be experiencing the Classic ‘Jitters’ that all Ante-Post punters experience when their 33/1 vouchers have been slashed down to 2/1 fav.Of course that is the sort of pattern that we want to see all the while hoping something doesn’t come out of the woodwork and cause us concern.Bloody
Marvellous
isn’t it when one does,I had that exact feeling last year with
Toronado
threatening my
Dawn Approach
wagers.You Steve have exactly the same dilemma now coolmore have committed their Irish 1000gns winner to the race,even worse is the amount of stable money thats gone down on her,worse still is she visually looked like this years Oaks winner last weekend.Not only will John Gosden heap negativety on
Taghroodas
chances but Bookmakers are responding accordingly and come Saturday I can see your filly going off 4/1 with 2/1 about
Marvellous
.I can only wish you the very best of luck and hope the Irish filly doesn’t line up.
I think there are probably a fair few people who haven’t already backed Taghrooda waiting around to see how big the price gets. The current 100/30 might actually be the peak. It will be if the ground remains soft and Tarfasha is pulled out.
Steve you will be experiencing the Classic ‘Jitters’ that all Ante-Post punters experience when their 33/1 vouchers have been slashed down to 2/1 fav.Of course that is the sort of pattern that we want to see all the while hoping something doesn’t come out of the woodwork and cause us concern.Bloody
Marvellous
isn’t it when one does,I had that exact feeling last year with
Toronado
threatening my
Dawn Approach
wagers.You Steve have exactly the same dilemma now coolmore have committed their Irish 1000gns winner to the race,even worse is the amount of stable money thats gone down on her,worse still is she visually looked like this years Oaks winner last weekend.Not only will John Gosden heap negativety on
Taghroodas
chances but Bookmakers are responding accordingly and come Saturday I can see your filly going off 4/1 with 2/1 about
Marvellous
.I can only wish you the very best of luck and hope the Irish filly doesn’t line up.
Gord, I was expecting that something would come out of the woodwork. The middle distance trials didn’t throw up anything obvious, although there are lightly raced potential improvers in there. It is sods law that one will emerge though and Marvellous looked very useful in her 1000 Guineas win. Two factors to cling onto are the stamina question and how good the Irish 1000G was?
Looking at the Irish race, two of the favourites were pulled out in the shape of Rizeena and My Titania. Dermot Weld ran two and Aiden had three runners, hardly indicating confidence in any one horse. Lightning Thunder ran out of petrol and Ballybacka Queen was reported in season. Al Thakira ran a stinker and I don’t think it looked that great a renewal really.
I was hoping Tarfasha would stay in Ireland but she has stamina to prove at this level. Ihtimal has been very quiet and not very well supported for a Guineas third. She too will be stepping into new territory in trip terms and is more exposed than most.
Originally I thought Taghrooda would have less on her plate than she has ended up with. 2/1 might have been decent but now I could see her touch 5/1. Not many people amongst the casual punters will have heard of her and nothing can start a snowball of money quite like a Ballydoyle horse. Punters are like moths to a flame or wasps to a jam jar and phrases like "She’s the class act", "If it stays it wins" will be doing the rounds on Friday.
When you back a horse in December for the Oaks, you are happy just to get a run and I won’t have a saver bet. What will be will be.
On the Derby front Gosden has put Romsdal into the field and that is hardly a good sign for the confidence in Western Hymn and I can’t see the latter horse winning.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
When you back a horse in December for the Oaks, you are happy just to get a run and I won’t have a saver bet. What will be will be.
In all my years on here Steve,nobody has ever put an Ante-Post wager up thats got me excited like your 33/1 about
Taghrooda
has,Olas and his 66/1 about ‘MTOY’ was impressive but that was under my influence.Having looked at the current possible runners I would imagine Coolmore will run 2 ‘serious’ fillies and a pacemaker.For personal reasons I hope
Tapestry
is one of them.Where your bet looks strong is on the fact there isn’t a filly in the race bred to be a 11/2m sort more than yours.Both ‘Marvellous’ and ‘Tapestry’ have big question marks over stamina limitations to answer and I would personally want to be on one knowing she will get the trip,be ridden knowing she’ll stay rather than trying to nurse one home,of course we all know if anyone can get an Oaks winner from one bred not to be its Aiden O’Brien for it
Was
he who got this ‘Green desert’ filly to win 2 years ago.Clocks ticking and the excitement is building,I would have contemplated laying enough of the 33/1 off at around the 2/1 mark just to cover my stake by now but if I stand firm on one I wont tempt fate,’MTOY’ again I’m afraid.Fingers crossed for you Steve,win lose or draw you ticked at least one box in the quest to be labelled TAPK and thats foresight,of course you will need to pull quite a few more of these fantastic wagers off before you fall into ‘Legendary’ status.
Amazing Maria looks rather tempting at 25/1!
Agree, I had a £5 free bet sat in my Ladbrokes account so put it on her, more sentimental than anything else as I had a thing for Ouija Board and my son loves Snow Fairy. I’m not sure how not having a previous run will effect her but Dunlop said she will get the trip which is good to hear as she showed plenty enough pace over shorter distances.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’ll be keeping an eye on two O’Brien fillies which I believe could make their presence felt at the top level. The first is
Palace
, who recently won impressively at Navan over a mile. She should appreciate good ground and a step up in trip. Maybe the Oaks distance could stretch her but I’d be interested in her chances should they go that route. The other is a darker one in the shape of
Marvellous
. She also has stamina doubts over the Oaks trip but she should get 10f imo and I’m looking forward to seeing where she goes next.
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A good performance from Marvellous in the Irish Guineas there, took 10/1 for Epsom, although she was available at 20/1 beforehand. I’m already on Palace at 25s, she ran an okay sort of race today but I’d expect her to be a lot better on better ground.These are posts I made about the Oaks in the Chester Races thread. To be honest I wasn’t sure Palace would run and she drifted to big prices on Betfair but now she’s been declared she has been well supported in to top price 20/1. Hopefully one or both of them will be involved.
Amazing Maria looks rather tempting at 25/1!
Agree, I had a £5 free bet sat in my Ladbrokes account so put it on her, more sentimental than anything else as I had a thing for Ouija Board and my son loves Snow Fairy. I’m not sure how not having a previous run will effect her but Dunlop said she will get the trip which is good to hear as she showed plenty enough pace over shorter distances.
In his interview on ATR a couple of days ago Dunlop said he thought she would stay a mile and a quarter but had no idea whether she would get a mile and a half.
Amazing Maria looks rather tempting at 25/1!
Agree, I had a £5 free bet sat in my Ladbrokes account so put it on her, more sentimental than anything else as I had a thing for Ouija Board and my son loves Snow Fairy. I’m not sure how not having a previous run will effect her but Dunlop said she will get the trip which is good to hear as she showed plenty enough pace over shorter distances.
In his interview on ATR a couple of days ago Dunlop said he thought she would stay a mile and a quarter but had no idea whether she would get a mile and a half.
Based on two Goodwood 7f wins I would be highly dubious she will get a mile and a half. They missed the 1000 G and perhaps this is last chance saloon, rather than confidence this distance is what she wants. On seasonal debut it will be a big ask and any easing of the ground would surely make her task a huge one.
Not one for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ah, thanks Stilvi I must have misheard….
Still I don’t think I would have bet her, only did as it was a free bet and one that if I didn’t use and she won I would be kicking myself. Agree with Steve she would have next to no chance on soft but is a horse I like.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
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This was already looking an open Oaks but I think with further rain possible, this race is becoming more and more open.
I like Madame Chiang but I am concerned about her coming off the bridle and not holding a good position before they enter the straight. The draw is also a concern and same must apply to Marvellous. I heard some stat the other day about horses drawn 1 and 2 around Epsom in middle distance races, its something like 2 winners from the last 50 odd races.
Ihtimal looks fairly solid and could just be a little underated. I think she will get the extra 2f and also she has already set a good levle of form, she could just be a little underated.
Taghrooda win last time just looks awful on paper now and ground a clear concern. Tarfash runs well without winning it for me.
Amazing Maria I cannot have her getting home. Marsh Daisy looked decent but has stacks of improvement to find for me.
Marvellous justifies favouritism and if draw and jockey does not find trouble will be hard to beat. But I think I would rather be with Ihtimal at around 8/1.
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I like Volume at 16/1 here, won well last time out when front running but wouldn’t be surprised to see her tracking the leaders come tomorrow. Should improve for the step up in trip too.
It looks as if the ground could easily dry out to good so if Hanagan can execute some relatively simple instructions we could be looking at an easy winner. Threw a few quid at the Arc on the basis that if she does win comfortably you will be lucky to get 16/1.
Tarfasha has been the one for money today and is as low as 4/1 now. I think that is poor value to me based on a win where the fav Dazzling didn’t fire for O’Brien and Dermot Weld’s filly was getting a stone and more from older horses. It’s pretty hard to weigh up the merit of the form with the only runner since, Euphrasia, going on to almost finish ahead of Magician in a bog, at odds of 50/1, when both finished behind the front running Noble Mission.
Ihtimal is 10/1 and I can’t have her. Although she has won at 10f, that win was in Dubai on the Tapioca (Or whatever it’s called) and she was 4/11 f with daylight finishing second. The 8th horse cut no ice dropped 3f, off a mark of 84 in a handicap, at Beverley, of all places, next time. I just can’t see her getting home.
Marvellous has to be respected and they seem confident she will stay but she was largely unsung and unfancied before the Irish Guineas and if the ground dried out a bit more, she would be taking on faster going and a very different trip tomorrow and these are not always a case of the simple "one cancels out the other" solution that many put forward to that particular conundrum.
Taghrooda seemed to have something of a stranglehold on the race a few weeks ago and some people I have talked to in my local shops were saying I was talking crap about her going out to 5/1 before the race but she’s sitting there at 9/2 tonight and I’m not far off whatever happens tomorrow. She may well have looked a great bet at the odds when the dust settles tomorrow but I thought similarly regarding The Fugue and William Buick still managed to get her beaten (he seems to do that fairly well with her!)
I did ponder The Arc at 50/1 for Taghrooda but with John Gosden at the helm you just wonder if they will go that way with her, even if she wins 5 lengths tomorrow. The ground, the travelling, the time of year and other factors will have to all fall 100% into line and John will probably have to have gotten his oats and won the lottery the night before to be in a positive enough frame of mind to commit her to Longchamp.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Taghrooda seemed to have something of a stranglehold on the race a few weeks ago and some people I have talked to in my local shops were saying I was talking crap about her going out to 5/1 before the race but she’s sitting there at 9/2 tonight and I’m not far off whatever happens tomorrow. She may well have looked a great bet at the odds when the dust settles tomorrow but I thought similarly regarding The Fugue and William Buick still managed to get her beaten (he seems to do that fairly well with her!)
I did ponder The Arc at 50/1 for Taghrooda but with John Gosden at the helm you just wonder if they will go that way with her, even if she wins 5 lengths tomorrow. The ground, the travelling, the time of year and other factors will have to all fall 100% into line and John will probably have to have gotten his oats and won the lottery the night before to be in a positive enough frame of mind to commit her to Longchamp.
I always thought The Fugue was essentially a 10 furlong filly who had enough class to be effective over longer trips. One things for sure if Hanagan starts riding Taghrooda like The Fugue it might pay not to have a ready supply of missiles close to the television set.
I know better than most the rollercoaster Steve Caution is riding,gut feelings play a big role in this game and the feeling about
Taghrooda
giving Steve his 33/1 winner is one of negativeity,if those vouchers were in my pocket I would be concerned about why ‘Tarfasha’ is running when she could take the Irish Oaks.I dont think there is a horse who stays better than Gosdens filly but if both ‘Ihtimal’ and ‘Marvellous’ do they are big dangers,I hope Coolmore dont crawl along as that wont suit Paul Hanagans mount as she isn’t a filly with gears,I would be quite happy to see ‘Taghrooda’ taking it up off Tattenham Corner and winding it up,If she’s 2 lengths clear flat out at the 2 pole nothing will pass her.However I am a great believer in visual interpretation and without doubt ‘Marvellous’ winning the Irish 1000gns is the best piece of form I have seen.I see her as the likely winner if she stays with ‘Ihtimal’ 3rd but if Paul Hanagan rides ‘Taghrooda’ with the confidence of Steve Cauthen,then Steve Caution will be collecting.Good Luck Steve,I have no real interest in the race now my ‘Tapestry’ isn’t running so I’ll be cheering her on for you.
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