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Coincidence or fate???
I fancy Blue Bunting for the Oaks, however, i also like to have an e/w on a bigger priced one. I was looking at Sirens Song and noted she beat Wonder of Wonders on her racecourse debut. Now i know AOB’s fillies have improved for their first run but surely Sirens Song is entitled to improve also. So on my way home i’m thinking Sirens Song is my e/w but just then Rock Radio play a new song for the listeners and what’s it called? yes Sirens Song!! Coincidence or fate? It does it for me
Coincidence or fate???
I fancy Blue Bunting for the Oaks, however, i also like to have an e/w on a bigger priced one. I was looking at Sirens Song and noted she beat Wonder of Wonders on her racecourse debut. Now i know AOB’s fillies have improved for their first run but surely Sirens Song is entitled to improve also. So on my way home i’m thinking Sirens Song is my e/w but just then Rock Radio play a new song for the listeners and what’s it called? yes Sirens Song!! Coincidence or fate? It does it for me
ME TOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wonder of Wonders impressed by the way she quickened and stayed at Chester.
To me, she looks a class act and I think she will take all the beating.
Agreed, Himself. I thought he was a star bet, but I’m nervous now of Blue Bunting. Her RP SF of 116 in the Guineas compares very favourably with those of previous winners’ in their earlier races. And she was going away at the finish, obviously a very strong stayer. I’ve had a little £5 win double on her, with Al Azir at Nottingham, tomorrow, as a saver (I hope!).
We’ve heard precious little about her, but the bookies don’t seem to be taking any chances… 2/1!
Havant will no stay,she will be unplaced.The race is set up for Wonder of Wonders.From the family of STS and Galeilo she is sure to stay,handle ground track and has the class B.Bunting doesnt have 4/1 is the best bet of the week especially ew 1/4 odds.Shes a wonder filly
Wonder Of Wonders for me. As others have described her breeding as impeccable and that means a lot in the Oaks…having a full sister to Galileo by the impressive Kingmambo with very decent form and prescence on your side means a lot.
The major threat looks like Blue Bunting and whilst its true her pedigree suggests 12f will suit her better than 8f she is not quite as blue blooded as WoW. Also Blue Bunting is being talked of as a Guineas winner in the mould of Kazzia and Midway Lady but to my eye she was nowhere near as impressive as those fillies at Newmarket. K and ML controlled the Guineas from some way out whereas Blue Bunting struck me as a stayer who had protection from the elements and outstayed some better fillies who were disadvantaged by the wind and pace. Cant see her having the tactical pace and turn of foot of Wonder of Wonders.Wonder Of Wonders has achieved very little either form wise or on the clock, surprised she is as short as she is. The filly she beat at Chester by under 3 lengths is a 100/1 no hoper. Does anyone really expect Blaise Chorus to finish any closer than 20 lengths behind the winner tomorrow?
Breeding is all very fine, but it doesn’t necessarily make yo run very fast.
Coolmore’s no 1 is clearly Misty For Me, and if Wonder Of Wonders was better than her, doubt that Misty For Me would be even showing up given stamina doubts.
Not original, but the standout is Blue Bunting, and expect a victory by many lengths, unless Misty For Me does indeed stay the trip. Can’t see anything else getting involved at all with the exception of Havant or Zain Al Boldan, but they look a division below the Godolphin filly.
When a 1000 Guineas winner goes to Epsom and is guaranteed to stay, their name is as good as already etched into the winner’s trophy.
Coolmore’s no 1 is clearly Misty For Me, and if Wonder Of Wonders was better than her, doubt that Misty For Me would be even showing up given stamina doubts.
The silks, jockey booking and odds all disagree with you.
When a 1000 Guineas winner goes to Epsom and is guaranteed to stay, their name is as good as already etched into the winner’s trophy.
Virginia Waters, Speciosa?
Wonder Of Wonders has achieved very little either form wise or on the clock, surprised she is as short as she is. The filly she beat at Chester by under 3 lengths is a 100/1 no hoper. Does anyone really expect Blaise Chorus to finish any closer than 20 lengths behind the winner tomorrow?
Breeding is all very fine, but it doesn’t necessarily make yo run very fast.
Coolmore’s no 1 is clearly Misty For Me, and if Wonder Of Wonders was better than her, doubt that Misty For Me would be even showing up given stamina doubts.
Not original, but the standout is Blue Bunting, and expect a victory by many lengths, unless Misty For Me does indeed stay the trip. Can’t see anything else getting involved at all with the exception of Havant or Zain Al Boldan, but they look a division below the Godolphin filly.
When a 1000 Guineas winner goes to Epsom and is guaranteed to stay, their name is as good as already etched into the winner’s trophy.
Having backed Wonder Of Wonders at 8/1 I would agree that she is now a silly price on the bare form and for me Fallon is the opposite of the icing on the cake. Misty For Me is a triple Group one winner and you could argue that she should be the shortest of the O’Brien runners. She appears to do just enough so it is difficult to predict if she will stay.
I wouldn’t put so much faith in Blue Bunting. She was relatively unconsidered in an ordinary renewal of the Guineas and perhaps the solo trip up the rail was also an advantage.
With the Channon team going well I expect Zain Al Boldan to run a decent race. I would have more faith in Beatrice Aurore if she were dropping back in distance and I can’t see why Izzi Top is 33/1 and Dancing Rain 11/1.
Epsom Oaks
1/ Beatrice Aurore (Durcan / J Dunlop) Drawn 3:
Comes from the handicap route, but won the Height Of Fashion (Group 3) at Goodwood. Didn’t seem to be going especially well on the inner until pulled out into the clear, displaying a good turn of foot. By Danehill Dancer who isn’t a big stamina influence, but dam Mondschein (by Rainbow Quest) won at 1½m and the way Beatrice Aurore runs suggests she’ll get the trip. Owner Benny Anderson of Abba has been a loyal supporter of John Dunlop over the years. My price to 100%
6% 16/1
2/ Blaise Chorus (M Hills / B Hills) 13:
Isn’t up to this. Tried to make all when 2¾ lengths second to Wonder Of Wonders at Chester (1m3f79yrds). One place and 3½ lengths in front of the more conservatively ridden Fork Handles. Still a maiden and likely t remain so.
1/8% 800/1
3/ Blue Bunting (Dettori / Zarooni) 6:
Winner of the Guineas and bred to be much better at this trip. Half sister to a stayer and dam is sister to another stayer. Sire is American stamina influence Dynaformer. Blue Bunting possibly got the run of the race more than most at Newmarket. Held up behind a host of horses, taking relief from a strong headwind. First three home came from well back. However, ¾ length second Together franked the form in coming a good ¾ length second to Misty For Me. On form the two Guineas winners are the same horse, although Blue Bunting has the breeding to go with it.
27% 11/4
4/ Dancing Rain (Murtagh / Haggas) 7:
Only thrice raced. Just beaten head by Izzi Top in the Newbury Oaks Trial (1m2f listed). Getting back at her in the finish. Pulled quite hard early in a slowly run race and may be able to improve further if settling better. Another by Danehill Dancer (see Beatrice Aurore), Dancing Rain is a full sister to Captain Dancer, a mile winner who ran well at 1¼m and yet to tackle 1½m. So she is not certain to get the trip.
2¾% 33/1
5/ Eirnin (JP O’Brien / A O’Brien) 10:
25/1 9th of 10 finishers in Naas 1m2f Group 3 on latest start. Held up there but may be her job here is as pacemaker. Looks totally outclassed.
1/10% 1000/1
6/ Fork Handles (Spencer / Channon) 1:
No reason to think she can reverse the 6¼ lengths deficit to Wonder Of Wonders at Chester. Between the pair was front runner Blue Bunting, but like that one is an outsider here. Not ideally drawn.
1/5% 500/1
7/ Havant (Moore / Stoute) 9:
Only around 5½ lengths 6th to Blue Bunting in the 1000 Guineas. Outpaced in final stages. Bred for middle-distances. Half brother, Leadership won a Group 1 in Italy at 1½m and he is by Selkirk, usually a lesser influence of stamina than Havant’s sire Halling. Could show big improvement from Newmarket, however, there is also a strong possibility she’ll prove best with give underfoot. Has a rounded action and her two impressive performances at two (including the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes) were on a soft surface. Had subsequent UAE Derby and Oaks winner Khawlah beaten 5 lengths in that.
14½% 6/1
8/ Izzi Top (Buick / Gosden) 2:
Beat Dancing Rain a head at Newbury off a slow pace. Like her old rival only thrice raced and more improvement possible (and needed). Said by stable to need some give, but the ground in Berkshire was quite fast. Although by Pivotal, she is from the family of Gold Cup winner Kayf Tara and the way she runs should get this trip. Not ideally drawn.
3% 33/1
9/ Misty For Me (Heffernen / A O’Brien) 4:
Won the Irish Guineas with exactly the same distance back to Together as Blue Bunting in the English version. Weak 9/1 shot when well beaten 11th at Newmarket herself, at a time Aidan O’Brien’s horses needed their first run of the season. Ground was soft at Longchamp for the Boussac, beating Helleborine a length. Good-firm in the Moyglare by a length from Laughing Lashes. Also had Laughing Lashes 1 ¾ lengths behind in the Irish Guineas on good ground. On jockey bookings is only the stable second string. Misty For Me isn’t very big, and it’s possible others will improve past her; but she sets a good standard and looks over-priced at around 8/1 on betfair.
14¼% 6/1
10/ Siren’s Song (Berry / Harrington) 5:
The “Siren’s Song” I know is by Billy Bragg (the singer) and Mrs Harrington’s Siren’s Song “won’t be long” in proving Group class. She won the listed Salsabil Stakes (1m2f good-soft) on the second of just two starts. Coming with a wet sail to get up late. By multiple Group 1 (including King George) winner Azamour who’s made a great start to his stud career. Dam Lure was third to Banks Hill in Group 2 Prix Sandringham at a mile. The way Siren’s Song was finishing at Navan suggests strongly will be fully effective at 1½ miles. Yet to race on a firm surface.
6% 16/1
11/ Why (Barzalona / A O’Brien) 11:
Like Eirnin from the Aidan O’Brien stable, does not look up to this standard. Despite being held up last time, may be in here as a pacemaker. Brilliant young jockey Mickael Barzalona gets his first ride in the Oaks.
1/8% 800/1
12/ Wonder Of Wonders (Fallon / A O’Brien) 12:
Won the listed Cheshire Oaks from Blaise Chorus and Fork Handles by 2¾ and 3½ lengths. Form is nothing exceptional, but did it all with comparative ease. Came through the field and went clear in no time. Big sort who could improve significantly and go on improving. Beautifully bred to win an Epsom Classic, out of Oaks second All Too Beautiful; a sister to one exceptional sire and Derby winner Galileo, and half sister another Blue Riband victor in the great Sea The Stars. Drawn next to two stable companions.
20% 4/1
13/ Zain Al Boldan (Hitchcott / Channon) 8:
Won Lingfield Oaks Trial by 6 lengths under today’s pilot. However, there are holes in the form. Second, Field Of miracles is only a Kempton maiden. Third placed Date With Destiny subsequently only 5th to Beatrice Aurore at Goodwood. Albeit by 4 lengths less than she was by beaten by Zain Al Boldan. Distances possibly more to do with a slower pace in the Height Of Fashion. Very likely to stay the extra furlong. Already of a higher quality than breeding. Sire Poliglote is yet to produce a Group 1 winner. Best known for a ½ length second to Celtic Swing in French Derby (then 1½m).
6% 16/1
Been busy in the ante-post market for some time. Misty For Me the last bet (saver) yesterday, is the only one of my bets who is still available at a value price (imo).
All bets on my Daily Lays And Plays thread.
2011 Oaks
17 points @ 12/1 (pp) Havant
50 points @ 9/2 (Skybet) Blue Bunting
6 points @ 25/1 (Tote) Wonder Of Wonders75 points @ 2.9/1 (betfair) Blue Bunting
(winning 25.86 points)
Getting half of the stake on BB back.
8 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Misty For MeValue Is EverythingWonder Of Wonders has achieved very little either form wise or on the clock, surprised she is as short as she is. The filly she beat at Chester by under 3 lengths is a 100/1 no hoper.
That filly got first run on her, and at Chester that means a lot.
Zarkava, neither Virginia Waters (Kingmambo) or Speciosa (Danehill Dancer) had a sire who is an influence for stamina.
As for jockey bookings, clear that this season O’Brien is keeping the same jocks on board who have ridden the horse before.
Hence why young Joseph rode Roderic O’Connor (rides him at home and knows the horse well) and Heffernan rides Misty For Me (rode in Moyglare and Irish 1000 Guineas).
So don’t think fact that Fallon is riding Wonder Of Wonders makes that one no. 1, merely that Ryan Moore is not available (rode in Cheshire Oaks) and they had to book someone. Only Heffernan had ridden Wonder Of Wonders before Chester, so you could even argue he had the pick
As for the colour of a jockeys cap, that hasn’t bothered so called Coolmore 2nd and 3rd strings before.
Come on Havent you can win the Oaks for Stoutey! Going to be a cracking race!
Martin
PS – Really hoping we have a Royal winner in the Derby – Come on Carlton House !
MaoriVenture; Kingmambo’s by Mr Prospector, one of the biggest stamina influences around. He’s also already sired an Oaks winner in Light Shift as well as a Coronation Cup runner-up in Alkaased and an Arc runner-up in El Condor Pasa. He’s got a stamina index of 9.9. And you say he’s not a stamina influence?
Wonder of Wonders’ performance was basically a carbon copy to that of Workforce’s at Sandown the other night. She was the only one able to pick up off a slow gallop and he was the only one able to pick up off dead, tacky ground.
Both Wonder of Wonders and Misty For Me are entered in the Arc and Eclipse. Look At Me’s entered in the Eclipse, but not in the Arc, and no other fillies in either race.
Misty for me also has a bit more experience than many. I am on at 8s – Wonder of wonders has a reputation but Misty has produced on the track.
Blue Bunting may well be better with an extra 4f as breeding and many astute judges suspect but there is plenty of slip between the crouch and the leap.
"MaoriVenture" wrote: using Together as the yardstick, and watching both finishes of the Irish and English Guineas….
…. you would have to think that Misty For Me would beat Together around 3-4 lengths in a 10f race. But Blue Bunting would be away and gone double that distance….
The winners of those respective races ran in completely different ways. Blue Bunting was held up and as the race fell apart infront of her she flew home to win in ultra-impressive fashion. Misty For Me was up with the pace and ground it out up the straight, fighting off multiple challengers.
Blue Bunting is favorite and deservedly so, but Misty For is a great each way bet at 7/1 imo. The Ballydoyle camp have always viwed that she would be better over a distance further than a mile. Maybe the 1m 4f will be too far for her, but at the prices I’m willing to pay to find out!
Selection: Misty For Me e/w
- Total Posts 17716
Kingmambo’s influence as a sire beyond 8-10f has to be highly questionable. You’ve quoted horses with dams by Sadler’s Wells, Nininski and Shirley Heights. The vast majority of winners sired by Kingmambo were at ten furlongs or less.
As for Mr Prospector being one of the biggest stamina influences around – we’ll just have to disagree on that point as well.
Good to see a return to normal service.
I can’t get too enthused about anything for the Oaks. I have traded a couple ante post but this afternoon I may have a nibble at Siren’s Song. Lightly raced but won with some style last time. Half brother Centennial was a classics candidate by a similar sire so she should have no problems staying the trip.
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