Oaks 2011

[JJMSports]

I’ve already backed Havant earlier in the season, but cannot see past Havant and Wonder of Wonders coupled, can not have the favourite.

[Rubyisgodinthesaddle]

Misty For Me should be aimed at the 1m2f races….races like the Nassau and Pretty Polly at the Curragh. They may go to France however and i think that be a wise move but she wont be beating the Fabre horse i would not have thought

[andyod]

Dose that make a positive RubyIGITS?

[Rubyisgodinthesaddle]

I dont follow Andy

[andyod]

Only kidding Ruby. Famous double negatives.

[Big Bucks]

really like

class Q of course but think her attitude can see her placed at least and has a shrewd target trainer

25/1

[Anonymous]

I’ve come to the conclusion that my Oaks winner is coming from David Wachmans yard in CRYSANTHEMUM – Following a succesion of analysis.

Basically I’ve used a process of elimination through strict standards, firstly I’ve narrowed the field down using the the average speed rating of all winning Oaks candidates leading up to their run which came out as (86), I’ve used the data to project a serious candidate award using the upper quartile of that data to (89)

I’ve then added all the winning Oaks horses speed ratings together to create an "experience" collum and using the lower quartile through the set of results I’ve come up with the figure of (174)

Oaks Candidates;

– Blue Bunting
– Togetther
– Laughing Lashes
– Siren’s Song

Serious Candidates

– Crysanthemum

Each month also has a set of averages;

Apr – 0
May – 0
Jun – 78
Jul – 79
Aug – 85
Sep – 89
Oct – 87
Nov – 84
/
Mar –
Apri – 89
May – 90

The two year old form probably doesn’t resemble much worth after the Oaks now although I would like to use it to see fillies that have used it to show genuine progressive traits i.e 79>88>94 etc although I’ll be more interest in those that have beaten the standards for April and May, they are;

– Blue Bunting
– Havant
– Misty For Me
– Zain Al Boldan
– Together
– Siren’s Song

Using a matrix to calculate how each Oaks winner performed in relation to the months standard I’ve averaged up their score then using the middle section between the lower and higher quartile range I believe the Oaks winner can be trapped between -2.2 and 1.0, that leaves us with

-10.8 Spin
-9.7 Beatrice Aurore
-8.7 Charleston Lady
-7.7 Zain Al Boldan
-7.7 Izzi Top
-6.7 Look At Me
-6.0 Khawlah
-4.3 Havant
-3.5 Bible Belt
-3.3 Dancing Rain
-1.8 Misty For Me
-1.5 Wonder of Wonders
-0.6 Blue Bunting
0.0 Chrysanthemum
3.0 Siren’s Song
3.8 Laughing Lashes
3.8 Together

I think that brings in the right horses to be fare.

/

My final say on the matter is Wonder of Wonders and Blue Bunting are the likely stayers with Chrysantheum and Misty For Me probably the value bets although I’m siding with Wachman on this one

1st – Blue Bunting (2/1)
2nd – Chrysanthemum (25/1)
3rd – Misty For Me (7/1)
4th – Wonder of Wonders (4/1)

I’ve attached the document I’ve been working ffrom if anyone finds it useful.

http://www.racing-review.com/Book100.xlsx

[Rubyisgodinthesaddle]

Interesting race the fact that Moore has not been down for the ride on Havant even though it looks like he will ride. Would love him on Wonder of Wonders

[andyod]

Mr Wilson ,if your selection wins I will go without solid food for a day. That is a promise I will keep.

[Anonymous]

Mr Wilson ,if your selection wins I will go without solid food for a day. That is a promise I will keep.

Funny as I don’t really expect it to win either

[Rubyisgodinthesaddle]

I get the feeling that the Watchman horse is a typical Watchman horse that does not go on to progress as a 3yr old

[Zarkava]

Interesting race the fact that Moore has not been down for the ride on Havant even though it looks like he will ride. Would love him on Wonder of Wonders

Seamus surely? Hope so.

[JJMSports]

I am really stuck at the moment between Wonder of Wonders and Havant. Backed both at bigger prices (6s and 8s) and who I opt for a chunky size wager on the day will depend on the ground and who Ryan Moore is on of the two.

[Zarkava]

Is there any reason why Havant should reverse form with Blue Bunting? On pedigree alone Wonder of Wonders is streaks ahead of Havant, whose sire has only produced 2 Group 1 winners at stud in a long, long career – Cavalryman and Cutlass Bay in 2 weak, weak French affairs, both for Andre Fabre.

She’s an early-May foal and May foals in total are 1-2-17 in the Oaks, Casual Look being the (somewhat fortuitous) winner. Stoute has had Dance A Dream finish 2nd and Petrushka finish 4th, both of whom had almost identical foaling dates to Havant.

All in all, I have no idea what she’s doing around the 11/2 mark, other than being Pricewise.

[stilvi]

Racing Post site seems to suggest Fallon is going to ride Wonder Of Wonders. Very hard to see why people are celebrating this news given how many times he messes up and how many big race winners he actually rides these days. Makes you wonder why Coolmore put Moore up in the first place if he was always going to ride the Stoute runner. It appears pretty pointless deserting their own jockeys if there is going to be a question mark about his availability on the big day.

[Zarkava]

I didn’t understand that either.

Fallon’s worth a few lbs at Epsom, delighted to have him on-board.

[Himself]

Wonder of Wonders impressed by the way she quickened and stayed at Chester.

To me, she looks a class act and I think she will take all the beating.

Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

[Author]

Posts