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Agree with Ginger about the short amount of time between the Dante and Derby being a concern.
Auguste Rodin was an inconsistent performer. The Guineas was his first poor run but it wasn’t to be his last. He showed he could bounce back from a poor run more than once in his career.
I believe O’Brien left City Of Troy undercooked for the Guineas. Whether that was intended or not, who knows?
I am trying to find an excuse for The Lion In Winter today but I am struggling. It was all a bit underwhelming. Sweating up and pulling hard was not good. There was some interference but he was already well beaten.
From a betting point of view I hope he wins the Derby. But the Dante raised more questions than answers.
Another question is what will Moore ride? The betting suggests he should be on board Delacroix. But if The Lads still consider The Lion In Winter to be the Number One as a stallion prospect, might he be told to ride him instead? If so, that 6/1 will disappear quickly.
Good point CAS.
The Lads may well think Delacroix is a fairly easy ride but they’d need a top jockey to settle The Lion In Winter. So to maximise Coolmore’s overall chance of winning – if both run – they might want Ryan on board TLIW.Value Is EverythingGlad,
13/2 on Ladbrokes with the odds boost.
The gap from the Dante to the Derby doesn’t worry me as O’Briens horses are usually extremely tough. The horses below have all done it so I see no reason why this horse can’t:
2004 – North Light
2005 – Motivator
2007 – Authorized
2015 – Golden Horn
2022 – Desert CrownI’m still expecting Moore to be onboard and a flood of money to come in for him in the run up to the race. He hit the line strongly today with Moore barely moving on him and that was after a troubled prep and lots of issues on the day.
I’m not overly worried about him being slightly keen in the Derby either as long as he doesn’t overdo it. His sire won the Arc de Triomphe easily after pulling the arms out of Kinane most of the way.
TLIW had only two previous runs and has been off for a long time. He looked to blow up before the race and he didn’t know what distance he was running beforehand so I’d be inclined to say he was very fresh and maybe the short distance between races could benefit him in that regard. That said I wouldn’t be rushing to back him off the back of that Ante post anyway
Moore looked keen to get him in a good position from the stalls and probably lit him up firing him out. I’m sure given the chance to ride the race again he’d let him pop the gate and sit in rearCharles Darwin to conquer the World
2004 – North Light
2005 – Motivator
2007 – Authorized
2015 – Golden Horn
2022 – Desert CrownThey all won on the Knavesmire.
To be fair, Workforce was beaten in the Dante and then won at Epsom. But the bit slipped in his mouth at York and he was a very unlucky loser.
It is not impossible The Lion will prevail at Epsom. But on balance I think it is unlikely, alas.
“Glad,
13/2 on Ladbrokes with the odds boost.”
Cheers, GM. I’m persona non grata with Laddies, sadly.
The gap between the Dante and the Derby doesn’t really concern me. AOB had this ride in mind for the horse for a while, he could’ve stuck him in another trial and put something else in the Dante if he felt he needed a slightly longer break between the trial and the Derby.
From what AOB was saying beforehand I doubt TLIW was ever ready to run in an earlier trial, Mike.
…And since the Dante has pretty much said the horse wasn’t particularly ready today but had to run otherwise he wouldn’t be fit for Epsom.
Value Is EverythingDoes Aidan even tend to run his better ones in the Dante? He hasnt seemed to for a while now so are we assuming he couldnt get TLIW out until now? I think it could be a bit like Japan who did go close in his Derby, came on a tonne from his Dante effort but it wasnt a great Derby and he didnt win it and Ryan didn’t ride him either. I think Ryan will end up on Delacroix fwiw.
“Does Aidan even tend to run his better ones in the Dante? He hasnt seemed to for a while now so are we assuming he couldnt get TLIW out until now?”
Just read another update from AOB, he said he wasn’t ready for a previous trial, only this one, and he had to run in it to stand any chance of going to Epsom. Adding that he’s not just going to improve, he’s going to make a lot of improvement.
At the prices: The Dante runner to be on in The Derby is imo Damysus @ 14/1.
Although it would be even better if they got a better jockey.
Shoemark on board today.
Hopefully James Doyle will be back, but if not then possibly BarzalonaValue Is EverythingDamysus won’t be hanging across The Lion on the Epsom camber come Derby day.
The only horse to take out of the race with the various back-stories is TLIW IMHOThe Gosdens cannot possibly use Shoemark in the Derby after their statement last week, unless they want to make themselves a laughing stock.
I haven’t been fazed by the two defeats of Damysus. If anything, I find his runs (particularly in the Dante) highly encouraging. While he isn’t a big horse, he has a very compact build, a low centre of gravity and finished strongly in all his races. With the extra one and a half furlongs at Epsom, I can see him handling the undulations and thundering down the straight.
As Gingertipster said … he needs s better jockey though
The Lion In Winter now Derby Favourite again…
While Delacroix is friendless – looking like he may not run.
Value Is EverythingMike tbf TLIW was being at one time targeted for the 2000, so not making that surely his only real option would have been the Dante at that short a notice?
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