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1.8 slow according to Racing Post.
Still Good and they didn’t seem to go a strong pace.Value Is EverythingBacked Desert Crown 2.55/1.
Ground no worse than York, possibly a fraction better.
Value Is EverythingWill buick just got headbutted by the horse next to him in the starting stalls
Hopefully he’s not concussed
Seventeen runners and not one G1 winner among them. In fact, Stone Age is the only one that placed in a G1 race having accomplished that feat in last year’s Criterium. When was the list time this has happened?
On this backdrop, I’ll go with Piz Badile. There’s nothing really to fear here…
Official time 2.28 seconds outside standard – definitely no worse than Good and they will surely break standard in The Derby.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Why are you so confident that they’ll go below the standard time in the Derby? 🤷♂️
It’s surely the normal thing for no Group 1 winner when the staying two year old Group 1 race winner (Luxembourg) is injured. The Guineas winner wouldn’t have stayed, ditto Dewhurst (who also won a Group 1 in Ireland) and obviously Middle Park winners.
However, both Desert Crown and Stone Age have put up performances not far short of Group 1 ability and probably have improvement in them – possibly a lot of improvement. Nations Pride and Changingoftheguard not far behind them on form and could also progress. Piz Badile and Walk Of Stars a bit below that on form but also have potential to make abnormal progress into good Derby winners. There are at least five horses I’d have as 100/1+ horses, but today’s race looks at least a fair Derby overall and imo possibly a very good one.
Value Is EverythingAh yes 2.28, god knows what I was looking at. Agreed good going.
Second race only slow by 0.46. Could be good-firm!
Yep, they’re going to beat standard in the Derby.Value Is EverythingCan see this being a good gallop
Stone Age
Changingoftheguard
Nahanni
WestwindblowsAll could want to go forward
The petrol gauge will be hitting red at the furlong pole for any dodgy stayers if so
“Why are you so confident that they’ll go below the standard time in the Derby? 🤷♂️”
If a 3yo rated 75 (ran to 85 to win?) carrying 8st2lb can be just 2.28 seconds outside it a Derby winner carrying 9st2lb rated 115 minimum, ie 30lb, better will IMO beat standard unless they absolutely walk round to Tattenham Corner.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Regarding the times and ground, Marquand and Haggas both said the ease in the ground helped their filly.
Said filly rated 104 and carrying 9st8lb was just 0.46 seconds outside standard for 1m113yds – the clock cannot lie.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Trainer and jockey probably haven’t seen the time.
If the clerk says it’s on the soft side they’ll accept that – at least publicly.Value Is EverythingThe forum and punters are always split in half on this – one half take the word of trainers and jockeys as gospel, the other half form an independent view looking at form and time.
Given the times and the age, OR and weight carried of the first two winners. I’d say it’s closer to Good to Firm than Good to Soft.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Thing with overall times is it can tell us the going is no softer than X.
But it still may be even firmer than the time indicates if sectionals are not consistent.Value Is EverythingI think the 15/2for Nations Pride is quite generous. As Turkoman has said there’s not
many that have been tested at this level and although NP is one of them, he’s not had
to extend himself in anything so far. By unbeaten Teofilo, who didn’t get the chance
to showhow good he was being injured as a 2yr old. Glad to hear that Buick is okay.Nations Pride 15/2 (now only 6/1)
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