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Hi guys. newbie around here, but thought would get in on this when i read the thread.
For what its worth, my thoughts on Frankel are that he has a lot to prove before i would even considering backing him to stay a mile and a half.
He is a bull of a horse, built more like a sprinter than a derby winner, and I think it was his raw speed that allowed him to power away from his rivals so impressively off of very modest gallops as a juvenile. He has to prove that he can do it off a strong pace to show he even gets a truely run mile in my book, and he wasn’t exactly pulling clear at the end of a moderately run Dewhurst. In addition, i also don’t think he’s got the temperament, and doesn’t settle well enough. Allied to this the fact that the track at Epsom certainly isn’t going to suit him, and he has yet to race on a fast surface(which very rare derby going is soft).
His breeding is fascinating, in that i think you can make a case for either or depending on which way you look at it.
There is a massive stamina influence from his sire, Galileo and indeed his sire’s sire Saddlers wells and Urban sea. Yet if you take his dam, a 5/6 f sprinter and his dam sire Danehill you could question this. Also, being closely related to Bullet train(also trained by Henry Cecil)- who was not a mile and half horse, and Powerscourt(also best at 10f), it can raise further doubts as to staying a mile and half.
All down to speculation and your personal point of view I think!J
Can anyone shed any light on the last derby winner who was unraced as a 2yo? Any opinion on whether it’s asking too much for an unraced 3yo to go on and win at Epsom?
Commander in Chief 1993. (Henry Cecil)
My opinion. No, it’s not asking too much for an unraced
2yo
to go on and win at Epsom. (if you meant 2yo not 3yo)
Morston (Arthur Budgett) in 1973 had his first run (in a maiden) only a few weeks before going on to win the Derby.
Having a really good trainer helps.
Yes marginalvalue, unraced as a 2yo is what i meant to say. That’s good to know. John Oxx is the man as far as I can tell and he only seems to run them at Epsom if they stand a chance (sts, kris kin and sindarr last three i can find). Watching brief for now but I shall be watching his entries for the ballysax stakes with interest
Still think it’s pretty early to draw any definite conclusions regarding the derby. But at this stage, these are my thoughts.
With regards to trends i do not like going back further than 5 years. I just feel that circumstances can and do change, and 5 years is enough to gain an insight and keep up with any changing trends. I have been having a look to see what fits the bill at this stage, and cannot get way from Roderic o’connor having an outstanding chance at Epsom. He is built for the track, and the way that recent derbies have been run, could see him skipping clear around tattenham corner and being hard to peg back. He ticks all the boxes, and will also probably fit the important recent trend of having prepped in the 2,000 guineas- which further back wasn’t the case, or the dante(would expect guineas obviously).
Indeed for the last 5 years you have not had to look beyond the Dewhurst or Racing post trophy, or the Guineas and Derby to find the winner.
The other contenders in my book at this stage are Seville(2nd in racing post trophy), Recital(another O’brien contender,though is a worry already run over further than mile as 2YO), Carlton house(impressive winner of newbury maiden),and one that i can’t leave out Nathaniel.(It is a worry that he is still a maiden though, and it will need a very impressive win before a run in hopefully the dante as 3YO).
A horse who really interests me for this season is Dubai prince, but i have left him out as i think his chances have diminished by going to Godolphin, and although has abundant potential, is plenty short enough at 12-1 on what he has achieved so far in my opinion. Likewise Casamento(with regards joining godolphin), although his form stacks up well, but i am far from convinced he will stay the trip anyway.Aidan O Brien very absent amongst the entries
Recital is his Derby Horse
But have you noticed something amongst the entries
Yes Pour Moi!!!!!! has been switched stables from France to AOB and has been talked about as the French big hope last year
Hi guys. newbie around here, but thought would get in on this when i read the thread.
For what its worth, my thoughts on Frankel are that he has a lot to prove before i would even considering backing him to stay a mile and a half.
He is a bull of a horse, built more like a sprinter than a derby winner, and I think it was his raw speed that allowed him to power away from his rivals so impressively off of very modest gallops as a juvenile. He has to prove that he can do it off a strong pace to show he even gets a truely run mile in my book, and he wasn’t exactly pulling clear at the end of a moderately run Dewhurst. In addition, i also don’t think he’s got the temperament, and doesn’t settle well enough. Allied to this the fact that the track at Epsom certainly isn’t going to suit him, and he has yet to race on a fast surface(which very rare derby going is soft).
His breeding is fascinating, in that i think you can make a case for either or depending on which way you look at it.
There is a massive stamina influence from his sire, Galileo and indeed his sire’s sire Saddlers wells and Urban sea. Yet if you take his dam, a 5/6 f sprinter and his dam sire Danehill you could question this. Also, being closely related to Bullet train(also trained by Henry Cecil)- who was not a mile and half horse, and Powerscourt(also best at 10f), it can raise further doubts as to staying a mile and half.
All down to speculation and your personal point of view I think!Welcome to the site! So glad to see another Doubting Thomas on here! Will make it all the more enjoyable when Frankel destroys everything before him this season. Such a shame that you didn’t get to meet The Ante Post King as he held similar views to you and was equally deluded!
First and foremost Frankel DOES get a mile. Of course he does. That’s why they started him off over a mile on soft ground and he won going away. That’s why they have employed a pacemaker and lead horse for him. That’s why he is entered in the Derby and has been added to the French and Irish Derby fields. Connections WANT a truly run mile.
Secondly they did NOT go a moderate gallop in the Dewhurst. Far from it in fact. The winning time was actually faster than the group 2 for older horses run on the same day.
He pulled far too hard in the Dewhurst I grant you but listen to the jockey and trainer comments for that one. He settled perfectly well in the Royal Lodge that WAS run at a dawdle.
Questioning is attitude is harsh for when you are talking about a horse that runs for his life and is unbeaten without having been hit by a whip.
Will he get the Derby trip? Not sure. Nor are his connections. But his entries suggest they haven’t given up hope yet. Nor have I!!!"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
With regards to not having right temperament, this is in reference to him not having right temperament to settle to stay a trip of 12f.
I am sorry, he doesn’t settle, and on every start he was keen.
Even in the Royal lodge he is keen, which is why quealy sends him on before the turn around the outside. And yes, i know comments from cecil and quealy in dewhurst about a bump leaving stalls that lit him up. Well that sounds typical of a sprinter to me. They live on their nerves and are like a coiled spring, very much like frankel.
Yes he prob will stay a mile, but will be amazed if any further, in decent company anyway. And he still hasn’t won over 7f or mile with a strong pace, so until he does, he hasn’t obviously. and if he hasn’t, then he has still got it to prove surely if we are dealing with facts?
Also with regards the Dewhurst not slowly run,in the Dewhurst they ran the first 3 f around 1.7 seconds slower than the GP2 Challenge stakes, and were around 2 seconds slower for the first 2f. If you know anything about sectional times, then the final 2f time will tell you all you need to know. The Challenge stakes last 2f was run in 26.8, where the Dewhurst was run in 24.3. There is no way that a 2YO could run the last 2f in that sort of time of a fast run pace. no way. That is what happens off slow pace, the final splits are very impressive as they have used no energy so to speak through the early part of the race.
And it’s all about opinions. We don’t know who is right or who is wrong… yet!So he’s a sprinter now!! This get’s better. Anyone remember Sea The Stars pulling in his Derby? Great horses want to run faster.
In all seriousness I do think they are concerned about him settling after the Dewhurst but please look at the video of the Royal Lodge again. He settles well off a very slow pace. Queally goes to get closer to the action rounding the bend and the horse takes off. This was probably his most impressive display of the season so again why knock that?
The FACT is his Doncaster run was won in a spectacular time suggesting it can’t have been TOO moderately run.
Your points about the sectional times are interesting as they are only just re-introducing sectionals this year but I will have to take your word for it. However you cannot say that he does not finish off his races in one post and then say that his "final sprint" was "impressive in another. Again I would ask you to watch the race again – it simply WASNT slowly run.
As you say it’s all about opinions and I look forward to many more discussions until one of us is proved right or wrong!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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With regards to not having right temperament, this is in reference to him not having right temperament to settle to stay a trip of 12f.
I am sorry, he doesn’t settle, and on every start he was keen.
Even in the Royal lodge he is keen, which is why quealy sends him on before the turn around the outside. And yes, i know comments from cecil and quealy in dewhurst about a bump leaving stalls that lit him up. Well that sounds typical of a sprinter to me. They live on their nerves and are like a coiled spring, very much like frankel.
Yes he prob will stay a mile, but will be amazed if any further, in decent company anyway. And he still hasn’t won over 7f or mile with a strong pace, so until he does, he hasn’t obviously. and if he hasn’t, then he has still got it to prove surely if we are dealing with facts?
Also with regards the Dewhurst not slowly run,in the Dewhurst they ran the first 3 f around 1.7 seconds slower than the GP2 Challenge stakes, and were around 2 seconds slower for the first 2f. If you know anything about sectional times, then the final 2f time will tell you all you need to know. The Challenge stakes last 2f was run in 26.8, where the Dewhurst was run in 24.3. There is no way that a 2YO could run the last 2f in that sort of time of a fast run pace. no way. That is what happens off slow pace, the final splits are very impressive as they have used no energy so to speak through the early part of the race.
And it’s all about opinions. We don’t know who is right or who is wrong… yet!Frankel still looked such a raw horse in the Dewhurst and will be 10 times better as a 3 year old on better ground off a fast pace.
I wouldn’t be bothered about the start and finishing sectionals they don’t really paint a picture of a horses ability but more of how a race was run, one thing that is important about the two races is Frankel showed "tactical" pace as compared to Red Jazz – Frankel can pass horses, he’s agile, he’s athletic which is vital for Epsom and knows how to finish of his races by putting his opponents to bed with ease.
If anything Frankel has a better chance in the Derby than the Guineas in my opinion.
Derby entries out today. A couple of notable absentees from Cecil yard – Picture Editor, Midsummer Sun and Specific Gravity. World Domination and Frankel ARE there.
Nothing to worry about certain horses not being listed as Derby entries. This was just a forfeit stage to weed out those who were entered as yearlings who have forfeited their entry. Khaled Abdullah and Henry Cecil have both taken the view in recent years that putting horses in the classics at the initial entry phase is uneconomic, unless they are very sure that the animal has a very good chance of being good enough. A lot of their late developers do not get entered until the supplementary stage, just like both Bullet Train and Workforce in last year’s Derby. So Picture Editor, Midsunmmer Sun and perhaps other late developers might be supplemented later. Of course some of Henry Cecil’s other patrons take a different view and do enter early.
Thanks for clearing that up MV.
I was speaking to someone from the Cecil yard today and they had news on three colts in particular.
Frankel
is thriving, has grown and will start serious work next week. They are very hopeful for the Guineas but still think that the Derby might be too far.
World Domination
"could be very special" and is one of at least 3 unraced colts thought to be potentially good enough to be considered Derby prospects.
Royal Peculiar
is another to look out for apparently. A Galileo son of Distinctive Look who has been pleasing them at home.
Can’t wait.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Your points about the sectional times are interesting as they are only just re-introducing sectionals this year but I will have to take your word for it. However you cannot say that he does not finish off his races in one post and then say that his "final sprint" was "impressive in another. Again I would ask you to watch the race again – it simply WASNT slowly run.
I didn’t say the final sprint was impressive, i said the final splits were impressive, but was also highlighting that these sort of finishing fractions are only achievable off a slow early pace.
If you don’t believe the race was slowly run just time it yourself. Trust me, it was. If this horse wins the derby then i will take it all back. But i don’t think he will, in fact i am pretty certain he will not.I wouldn’t be bothered about the start and finishing sectionals they don’t really paint a picture of a horses ability but more of how a race was run
Disagree with that.When used as a comparison with other races they can tell you a lot about a horses ability. For instance, if they had gone the same sort of early pace in the Dewhurst as in the challenge stakes, and produced those sort of finishing fractions, then that would have told me we had a confirmed world beater. A horses finishing fractions can tell you a hell of a lot about it’s ability,and modest early fractions and you can adjust speed ratings accordingly. When a horse such as Frankel, races off a modest gallop and displays such ‘raw’ power, it tells me that he is a speed ball who is a doubtful stayer. That’s my opinion, and I stand by it, as i have no doubt you stand by yours. We all have our own methods and opinions, and i like that very few take sectional times seriously, it gives me an angle that is otherwise ignored.
Here are the nominations for the 2011 Derby from the Godolphin website, courtesy of Timeform.
I’m firmly in the Carlton House camp. Looked impressive on his maiden win, very impressive.
John Oxx runs a Derby entrant in the 5.05 at the Curragh this afternoon – Adilapour.
The race is a 7f handicap. Entering him in a handicap would indicate Oxx has no Classic pretensions with him.
I would rule out all of John Oxxs Horses for the Derby straight away.
I dont rate the trainer very high it has to be said compared to other trainers in Ireland. Seems to always blame the ammo he is given. His counterparts in France do better from what i can see with similar types
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