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If you could find a horse with blood links to this lot it should have a great chance:-
Sadlers Wells, Dancing Brave, Lyphard, Mill Reef, Native Dancer, Northern Dancer, Never Say Die, Hyperion, Busted
Backing up Gingertipster’s point, the problem is that 6 of those 8 are on one half of the pedigree. On the distaff side, Never Say Die and Hyperion are 5 generations back . . .
Thought I was finished with this year’s Derby, but as you’re dragging me back in, I’ll come back with the best bred horse in an hour or so time.
Trying to just say the best bred horse will win doesnt work. Most horses however IMO have a surface and a distance and to try to pick one for a distance and the surface, involves knowing the surface and picking horses who’s breeding suggests they should act on that surface.
If it is gd-fm I think Al Zir should go well enough on the surface if the pace is fast. If the ground is gd-fm however there is always the chance that they dont run the speedier sorts out of the race and that will bring azmeel into the Equation. Azmeel went best in the dee stakes in the last few furlongs where the ground was drying out and I suspect he could be the type to go well in a fast surface derby. Bullet Train and Workforce will also like it faster underfoot. Workforce however had everything up his street in the dante and was beaten, so how much he will come on for the experience is the question, but 6-1 seems plenty short enough on him IMO.
The rest I would expect will want good ground to get their toe in, to show their best, but unless they have watered overnight or rain has come, I would expect that AL ZIR, AZMEEL, BULLET TRAIN and WORKFORCE look to hold the advantage on the breeding side, and if the ground is still gd-fm, then I think it will take a classy performance from any of the remainder to beat all 4 of them.
PS. Quite like Dandy Nicholls Crimea in the Vodafone Dash also for a wee e/w shot at 40-1 if the ground is still fast.
It was my biggest bet, Darren. £20 @ 42 average, 21st April, which was 2 days before the Guardian Classic Trial. Looking at the price graph, it looks like Azmeel went down to 25 during or just before that race, went out to 150, and then came back down to 25. However, pretty much immaterial to me Darren, as I’ve traded nearly all of it away.
Okay, breeding. This will pretty much be, on the one hand, on the other.
In terms of what their siblings have done,
Rewilding
stands out. He is a half-brother to
120 Dar Re Mi
120 River Dancer
118 Darazari
118 Dariyoun
116 Rhagaas
115 Kilimanjero.All of the above achieved their best RPR at 12f!
[edit: Nearly all the others seem to be a first or second progeny, or their siblings didn’t make it to the race course.]
In terms of overall pedigree,
Bullet Train
stands out, pretty much because his dad is better than anyone elses!
Buzzword
and
Workforce
are also well-bred, though many will say that Workforce is letdown by his sire King’s Best. Myself, however regard this as a positive, as he is a sire of the popular 4 mile chaser Gidam Gidam
, and King’s Best is a half-brother to Urban Sea, who not only won the Arc, but is dam of Galileo and Sea The Stars.Jan Vermeer
and
Ted Spread
are both fairly poorly bred on the dam’s side.
I suppose second behind
Bullet Train
in overall predigree would be
Midas Touch
, as Darshaan has a fairly impressive record as a damsire.
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1. Official going change this am – now good to firm (despite watering)
2. Al Zir has been said to prefer an easy surface.
The going is neither in the favour of Ted Spread nor Workforce.
Murtagh on the morning line made the useful point that whatever’s improved 10 to 12lbs from the trials wins. Jan Vermeer has had least time to improve 10 to 12lbs.
Murtagh quoted in the Racing Post this week stated there is a doubt over Jan Vermeer’s stamina. The fast ground is a factor towards speed. Connections said after the Gran Criterium that it shows lots of speed.
What a trappy heat. Midas Touch looks like an out and out galloper. We’ve not seen it ‘quicken’. They keep the Derrinstown pacemaker At First Sight in. Bullet Train ‘doesn’t have to go from the front’. These three and Ted Spread will make it a true test of stamina. So the conditions (fast ground) and the way the race seems likely to be run cut in opposite directions.
Workforce is clearly one that could improve out of all recognition. Stoutey’s no mug. The fact it was still green – babyish and ‘spooked’ Stoute said – in the Dante you can read either way. My worry is that it clearly didn’t have a positive experience in the Dante. Probably the bit slipped because it refused to take hold of it. He looked iffy at the stalls. Workforce has a markedly rounded action and I thought never seemed happy on the gf at York. I think it’s one to be watched in the prelims. It’s not just inexperience that might count against it, I’ve a thought it might not be right in the head as a result of the Dante.
The prelims are important because 29degrees of heat will also be a factor today. Anything that gets upset will simply expend too much energy. Cool and relaxed is what you’d want to see.
Bullet Train also. Cecil reports it can be colty and get excited. You’d not want to see any of that in this heat.
I’ve heard Francome remark that you want a light coloured horse in extreme heat. But, apart from the pacemaker, they’re all bays. Would a light-bodied animal have a slight advantage over a more heavily built rival in high temperature and humidity?
Other than wanting to see the demeanour of the Abdulla pair, I think I have it narrowed down to two. I’ll also be back later and reading what people have to say.
I cannot work out the ground as yet but reckon my bets will be…
Gd-Fm (today again)
Azmeel 12-1 and Al Zir 18-1
Good Ground
Co-ordinated Cut 25-1 and Al Zir at 18-1
This is what I was attempting to quote in my last post. not quite sure what happened there.
Bullet Train for me. Always struck me as a Derby horse when he won as a 2YO.
Coordinated Cut for each-way.
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1. Official going change this am – now good to firm (despite watering)
2. Al Zir has been said to prefer an easy surface.
The going is neither in the favour of Ted Spread nor Workforce.
Murtagh on the morning line made the useful point that whatever’s improved 10 to 12lbs from the trials wins. Jan Vermeer has had least time to improve 10 to 12lbs.
Murtagh quoted in the Racing Post this week stated there is a doubt over Jan Vermeer’s stamina. The fast ground is a factor towards speed. Connections said after the Gran Criterium that it shows lots of speed.
What a trappy heat. Midas Touch looks like an out and out galloper. We’ve not seen it ‘quicken’. They keep the Derrinstown pacemaker At First Sight in. Bullet Train ‘doesn’t have to go from the front’. These three and Ted Spread will make it a true test of stamina. So the conditions (fast ground) and the way the race seems likely to be run cut in opposite directions.
Workforce is clearly one that could improve out of all recognition. Stoutey’s no mug. The fact it was still green – babyish and ‘spooked’ Stoute said – in the Dante you can read either way. My worry is that it clearly didn’t have a positive experience in the Dante. Probably the bit slipped because it refused to take hold of it. He looked iffy at the stalls. Workforce has a markedly rounded action and I thought never seemed happy on the gf at York. I think it’s one to be watched in the prelims. It’s not just inexperience that might count against it, I’ve a thought it might not be right in the head as a result of the Dante.
The prelims are important because 29degrees of heat will also be a factor today. Anything that gets upset will simply expend too much energy. Cool and relaxed is what you’d want to see.
Bullet Train also. Cecil reports it can be colty and get excited. You’d not want to see any of that in this heat.
I’ve heard Francome remark that you want a light coloured horse in extreme heat. But, apart from the pacemaker, they’re all bays. Would a light-bodied animal have a slight advantage over a more heavily built rival in high temperature and humidity?
Other than wanting to see the demeanour of the Abdulla pair, I think I have it narrowed down to two. I’ll also be back later and reading what people have to say.
Interesting stuff as always Pedigreeman.
Can confirm Bullit Train was coltish in the paddock at Newbury when he was beaten. there were fillys in the field.
Jan Vermeer only has to improve 3 or 4 lbs to win an average Derby. Improving 10-12lbs does not apply to him. Yes he showed speed to come away from his rivals in France, but for a two year old to win on very soft ground over a mile requires stamina.
Bullit Train has a rounded action. Can’t say I’ve noticed Workforce with one. He’s run twice and run well on good-firm, from a sire that acted well on a firm surface. Though it is true there is a doubt about him acting on the course / hanging. Very relaxed in the prelims at Goodwood.
Value Is EverythingI have been backing
Workforce
for quite sometime now and could actually lay all my bets off and still win £150 on the race,but as Chris Tarrant says " We"re not going to do that"! My problem is having watched Workforce run,it is blatantly obvious the horse wants cut in the ground,he is a heavy front ended beast who hits the ground hard,he looks like he lacks pace and the undulations of the course will unbalance him! After he finishes the race much like the dissapointing Timepiece yesterday,i will lump on for the St Leger,knowing Doncasters flat galloping straight will bring the stamina reserves this fellow has in abundance into play!
Bullet Train
ticks plenty of boxes for me so i shall watch the 2 Prince Khaled colts today and hope they run better than the 2 fillies yesterday!I hope
Al Zir
runs a place too as i have always liked him!How ironic if he should win after St Nicholas Abbey trounced him in the Racing Post!
Bullit Train has a rounded action. Can’t say I’ve noticed Workforce with one.
Workforces rounded action is about as noticeable as your Ginger hair mate!
Bullit Train has a rounded action. Can’t say I’ve noticed Workforce with one.
Workforces rounded action is about as noticeable as your Ginger hair mate!
Then must have missed it TAPK.
One thing is for sure, Workforce won’t have the stamina for a Leger.
When I saw him at Goodwood, showed bags of speed once realising what was required. Greeness and hanging might be a problem today.Value Is EverythingStoute said: "In the spring, he wasn’t thriving and he’s short of experience.
"He had one race at two and the Dante was unsatisfactory. At Epsom, you’ve got to be sharp mentally and the good thing is there are 12 runners not 24 – that’s a help.
"I took him to Lingfield to accelerate down the hill and come round the turn. He’s sharpened up since the Dante, as one would expect him to."
Stoute, who has won the Derby four times, added: "We’re entitled to run and he’s got a chance, but I couldn’t say I’m confident because of the lack of an additional run.
"He’ll stay and I hope the ground isn’t too quick."
Surely it will be too quick?
To my way of thinking Workforce isn’t the only leading fancy who feels rushed to get here.
With Jan Vermeer will we, won’t we Epsom or France, you’d think you might like to train a horse a bit differently if the aim is 1m4f rather than 1m2f?
I often wonder if Godolphin know what they’re doing. Bin Suroor being now ‘rivaled’ by Al Zarooni sort of reflects a realisation of that imho. But of course they still have Crisford around. I note they took Dubai Millenium down the Cocked Hat (Goodwood) route but, of course excellent horse that he proved to be later in the season, a Derby winner he wasn’t.
I’m not sure you’d get a Kings Best to win a Leger however stoutely bred the dam but the wider point might be that this could be a Derby where the ‘best’ horse doesn’t in fact win. The rest of the season might show that some of the market leaders just weren’t ready in time or hadn’t been trained specifically for the race.
One thing is for sure, Workforce won’t have the stamina for a Leger.
He is currently available at 12/1 for the St Leger,obviously if he wins today he wont be heading up the A1 in September!He will get the Leger trip No problem mate!
^^King’s Best can produce offspring who stay very well. As I mentioned in my Derby analysis, he was responsible for recent Japanese Derby winner, Eishin Flash.
King’s Best showed plenty of speed when comprehensively beating Giant’s Causeway at Newmarket, but was injured during the early stages of the Irish Derby and subsequently retired.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt was a half-brother to Urban Sea, who was responsible for both Galileo and Sea The Stars.
The dam of Workforce is a sister to Brian Boru, who won the St Leger in 2003.
Workforce may have displayed an impressive turn of foot on his debut against a fair calibre of opposition, but connections of the second (Oasis Dancer) felt their colt didn’t handle the undulations of Goodwood, whereas the third (Exceedthewildman) has since won over twelve furlongs.
From what I’ve seen on the track, Workforce doesn’t appeal out as a potential Leger type, but he has a decent chance of staying on pedigree.
Midas Touch will need to have improved significantly on any known previous form to win this imo. The horse he beat last time was stuffed last night. Jan Vermeer beat him twice last year, no reason to believe Midas Touch will reverse that form. Seems more of a St.Leger type to me, looks a plodder to me. I could be wrong, wouldn’t be the first time…
Jan Vermeer has done nothing wrong, he’ll take all the beating. Al Zir could run a place.
What does my chart look like? Well they have all got to do the D and handle the track. Given luck in running proven fast horses should come through and these are Nos 8, 12, 5, 6.
Derby (my ratings priced to a 100% book)
1. 60/1
2. 35/1
3. 16/1
4. 16/1
5. 22/1
6. 17/2 Coordinated Guy, LTO tracked led soon ridden headed same pace 3/5 -4L, could place. Bell/Spencer 3rd best combo.
7. 22/1
8. 10/3 Jan Vermeer, LTO chased led quickened very easily won 1/7 +1.75L, strong claims. O’Brien/Murtagh 2nd best combo.
9. 11/1 Midas Touch, LTO held up ridden to lead ran on well won ¼ +2L, some concern over getting D?
10. 9/1 Rewilding, LTO held up travelled strongly led stayed on strongly won 1/9 +4L, very well bred.
11. 13/1
12. 11/2 Workforce, LTO held up hung bit came through awkward ridden headway stayed on 2/5 -3.5L. Stoute/Moore best combo.^^King’s Best can produce offspring who stay very well. As I mentioned in my Derby analysis, he was responsible for recent Japanese Derby winner, Eishin Flash.
King’s Best showed plenty of speed when comprehensively beating Giant’s Causeway at Newmarket, but was injured during the early stages of the Irish Derby and subsequently retired.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt was a half-brother to Urban Sea, who was responsible for both Galileo and Sea The Stars.
The dam of Workforce is a sister to Brian Boru, who won the St Leger in 2003.
Workforce may have displayed an impressive turn of foot on his debut against a fair calibre of opposition, but connections of the second (Oasis Dancer) felt their colt didn’t handle the undulations of Goodwood, whereas the third (Exceedthewildman) has since won over twelve furlongs.
From what I’ve seen on the track, Workforce doesn’t appeal out as a potential Leger type, but he has a decent chance of staying on pedigree.
You are right. I’ve been guilty of having Kings Best’s guineas win in my mind and looking too closely at it’s published AWD of 8.7.
King’s Best as a Kingmambo (9.9) Lombard (14.0) cross does have plenty stamina to impart. (as well as class and progression).
I have been liking Azmeel’s credentials in that it – likes good to firm, is relatively experienced, is not gross and is well balanced, seems resolute – battles, goes through gaps between horses – and the Derby always seems to have been it’s clear target.
Workforce is not the only candidate today with Kings Best in it’s pedigree. King’s Best is the damsire of Azmeel. I’d rather see Native Dancer lines on the dam’s side. There’s precedent for it without having to go back 45 years.
I’d been wondering if Azmeel might lack stamina, and might not be good enough, but looking again at Kings Best I’ve changed my view. I also very much like the Shirley Heights nick.
Once you start to think this is more of a 1m4f than a 1m2f horse the form changes complexion too. I note it’s described to have ‘ran on’ in taking the Dee Stakes.
In re-evaluating the Kings Best numbers I now think Azmeel can mix it with Midas Touch, Rewilding and Bullet Train in what I’m pretty sure will be a true test of stamina but in which you will need gears as well as a battle hardened temperament.
Not to much, because it still looks a race in which almost anything could win, but AZMEEL for me.
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