- This topic has 611 replies, 68 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
SNA is/was never going to win the Derby
Smart talk around here is Rewilding
I’d want to make sure it is running so wait until no run no bet
Love to see a new late entry………..
Nah, not traded out, will let it run unless the price gets to something rediculous (shorter than 2/1). I also have a smaller bet on Workforce 12/1.
Well covered Ginge,i like your style!
Who wants to go and watch this lot? Not me…Ted who!!!
Al Zir (USA)
Ameer (IRE)
At First Sight (IRE)
Averroes (IRE)
Azmeel
Bright Horizon
Bullet Train
Cape Blanco (IRE)
Chabal (IRE)
Coordinated Cut (IRE)
Gumnd (IRE)
Hot Prospect
Jan Vermeer (IRE)
Midas Touch
Mubtassim
St Nicholas Abbey (IRE)
Ted Spread
Trovare (USA)
WorkforceBring on the late entries HELP
Given he’s the best horse in the race, with the best 2yo AND 3yo form, that’s not entirely surprising
Getting stuffed in the Guineas equates to the best 3yo form?
Cape Blanco is the one with best 3yo form personally.
he was 2L and 3.5L behind 2 classic winning milers, over 8f on quick ground off a slow pace.
There isn’t any better form on offer than that, is there?
- Total Posts 17716
Funny because all of St Nicholas Abbeys runs last year were completed in a slow time and he certianly travelled better than he did on Guineas day which doesn’t add up when everyone puts slow pace in as an excuse,the only thing is the horse has regressed.
Given he’s the best horse in the race, with the best 2yo AND 3yo form, that’s not entirely surprising
What difference a year makes . .
St Nic has the best 3yo form
I’m not sure anyone has provided evidence to the contrary?
Funny because all of St Nicholas Abbeys runs last year were completed in a slow time and he certianly travelled better than he did on Guineas day which doesn’t add up when everyone puts slow pace in as an excuse,the only thing is the horse has regressed.
It does add-up when one considers the stamina needed for a 2yo over a mile on soft ground. The same sort that would be required over at least 10f as a 3yo.
This horse deserves a chance to run to his pedigree. He should not be judged yet.
- Total Posts 17716
I’ve been a big Cape Blanco fan for a long time JJM and have a nice free bet riding on him. My great concern is his soundness. Quite a few reports re setbacks prior to his win first time out and he walked around lame in the enclosure after the race. Price all over the place since then. It’s hard to be overly enthusiastic at this stage.
St Nic only has the best 3yo form over a mile …… by default. How can you prove anything else?
I’m not sure how it’s by default, he delivered a performance in the 2000 worthy of his G1-winning 2yo form. Conditions were all against him.
We don’t know what will win the Derby, but the pre-race talk is very odd, just imo. Jan Vermeer beat nothing in a non-recognised trial. The Dante was inconclusive.
- Total Posts 17716
St Nicholas Abbey
83 – 16th August (-3.16) (-0.98)
74 – 29th September (2.44) (-18.33)
94 – 24th October (1.91) (-1.74)
93 – 2nd May (1.98) (-2.43)Cape Blanco
77 – 10th June (-0.34) (-1.94)
81 – 23rd July (-2.77) (-8.54)
86 – 22nd August (-5.43) (-5.93)
96 – 13th May (4.43) (+2.32)Midas Touch
83 – 26th September (1.53) (+2.33)
85 – 12th October (-3.28) (+0.37)
94 – 1st November (-5.58) (+0.32)
96 – 9th May (3.95) (+2.20)Jan Vermeer
87 – 12th September (-7.84) (+2.63)
86 – 26th September (1.53) (+5.33)
100 – 1st November (-5.58) (+6.32)
95 – 24th May (-1.77) (-0.98) *rating to 9st*This is what I’ve got in my folder upstairs;
St Nicholas Abbey – Took full advantage of his physical maturity last year and walked over everything in his path, scratch the Beresford which was just a weird result and he has show solid improvement. The 2000 Guineas for me has seen a regression, he had the race to suit as there wasn’t much pace involved by unfortunately he’s not running against babies this year and could never dominate and the Racing Post Trophy has been a death trap in recent years trying to get a horse to improve the following year but it’s a decent prize of £113,000 if you’ve got a horse that’s well in advance of his peers.Cape Blanco- He has done absolutely nothing wrong and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him for the Derby as he has a very attractive profile and it’s what I tend to look for but be honest with yourself can you see him going with the latest reports? No doubt this horse is class and will have a lot of say over 10f this year; the 12f trip may be too stretching.
Midas Touch – The horse I think will win the Derby, this is because he has such a progressive profile and both times he encountered soft he still produced an improved figure and beat his class par which suggests he’s got a bit of solidarity about him and mental resolution. The Derrinstown Derby Trial is steeped in Racing history and it was interesting Midas Touch was the yards first choice here, a horse who was shorter than Jan Vermeer in the betting last year both times they met and opposed by Murtagh, he was given plenty to do in the trial maybe 8 or 9 lengths to make upcoming past 4f pole and never at one stage did Murtagh get anxious or concerned it just epitomised what he felt underneath him and ran away towards the finish without getting hard on the horse. The latest reports are that Donoghue has said to be very impressed with Midas Touch who in his words has improved from Leopardstown and it’s no surprise with the profile above and St Nicholas Abbey his work partner didn’t sparkle? Well we knew this from the evidence above also. For me this just gives me the confidence he is a Derby contender whether or not he’ll win on the day is another question because the only horse that looks capable of beating him is……
Jan Vermeer – This is a serious horse and I have probably done him a disservice but I put that down to nailing my colours to the past and when their nailed I don’t look at another horse but Jan Vermeer backers are defiantly in a good boat, the horse has beat Midas Touch twice but I get the feeling he loves to get his toe in and I think there’s enough evidence to support this in the ratings above but there’s little chance of getting them ground conditions at Epsom. The horse has already hit a 100 figure as 2 year old which puts him in a pretty special category and not many are capable of that, his 7lb penalty was thoroughly justified with that Grand Criterium time and form lines but he done what was expected which is why I am not getting carried away as he’s beat absolute nothing, rest assured he will be a big contender in the Derby IF, that’s a big IF he goes which if you like your market support then that looks likely.
I think Aidan could have a bit of a conundrum, if he could pick the Derby contenders on this year’s form it would most certainly be Jan Vermeer, Cape Blanco and Midas Touch but he feels an undoubted loyalty to the horse St Nicholas Abbey who had the world at his feet at 2 and it may be a case of the heart ruling the head but he sees them every day and he has a different picture, but what’s to say St Nicholas Abbey doesn’t come out and romp the field!?….unlikely: P
I defiantly feel Midas Touch and Jan Vermeer will be 1 & 2 in the result but which way I don’t know but I know were the value was at 16-1 and the 8-1 may still look value come the day and we’ve yet to have the confirmed jockey bookings.
1. Midas Touch
2. Jan Vermeer
3. Al Zir
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.