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Famous Name for me. Weld stable is in a small bit of form, can’t have New Approach at those prices
my ratings
147 new approach
135 pipedreamer
131 russian cross
126 twice over
123 linngari
122 city leader
120 traffic guard
116 hebridean
107 full of gold
196 upton grey
98 staying onwill back new approach to win
Might just be the hype due to Fabre supplementing the horse for this. The market seems to turn when Fabre does bring one over here …
Examples?
The runner he brought over to Salisbury a few months back. The horse went straight to the top of the market at 2’s and even got a whole page spread in the RP because Fabre was bringing a horse to a small racecrouse in Britain.
Can’t remember the name of the horse but I know it didnt deserve to be near favouritism and it was all on hype. Fabre didnt turn up either which would give an small incling to the expected chances.
Granted, Russian Cross is a good horse but got beaten last time out and may have been lucky when going head to head with Twice Over and River Proud when last winning. Twice Over got no luck that day and Pasquier probably gave him a pretty bad run.
With rain forecast Twice Over is looking rather attractive for this and with Queally on board I’d expect him to have a much better chance compared to last time out.
With rain forecast, NA surely can’t do anything but win. I’d be wary on ground better than yeilding though.
Unless he has gone or the ground comes up fast then it has to be NA’s race. Linngari though a bit in and out and Traffic Guard may be value ew bets in what looks not the strongest of renewals.
If New Approach can’t dispatch this shower of plodders, its all the same. I throw my hat at it.
I’m a huge Pipedreamer fan and would love to see him win this but my head tell me the only thing that can prevent New Approach winning this is New Approach and his refusal to settle. However I wouldn’t be betting him at cramped odds AP. Bet him in running if he settles early is my advice.
I think those whop fancy Twice Over would be better trying to get a price about him winning the Triumph Hurdle as he lacks class big time for this game………OK so you can throw eggs at me if he wins
It’s not insane talk FoF. He has let me down as an onlooker too much this season.
If New Approach loses, the pundits will cry a careless "meh" and walk out of the theatre. Nothing damaging has been done, except for the Derby close finishers who we’ve seen little of since and would therefore be keen to witness in the new season.
Bang for your buck (ie. wager) is with the Dewhurst.
It would be nice to see new approach come back to his best to win this but at his price and after his last two runs he cant be a real bet.
AOBs Hebridean might be a bet out of hope but think I’ll have a go on him.
Probably ‘one to watch’ as they say………
Might have an EW interest on City Leader at big odds…….
Beaten under 2L by Vision D’Etat in the Neil last time out – trip probably too far, better at 10F ?
Time before that, beaten under 2L by Russian Cross when hampered
……and before that beaten under 1L by Twice Over
If Twice Over and Russian Cross are potential ‘placers’ then so is City Leader…….at 4 or 5 times their odds.
With rain forecast, NA surely can’t do anything but win. I’d be wary on ground better than yeilding though.
All being said, with a few pound pull, Traffic guard could well represent the e/w bet of the season. I’ve bottled it completely and opted for an e/w now.
The fact that the horse posted his lifetime best in his last start would at least suggest he’s in good heart and may well be thriving at this late stage.
I hate races like this. It seems a huge shock may well be on the cards with ratings going out the window in favour of right place, right time!
It would be nice to see new approach come back to his best to win this but at his price and after his last two runs he cant be a real bet.
AOBs Hebridean might be a bet out of hope but think I’ll have a go on him.
yes was thinking that myself his form has been franked by Conduit winning the ledger after his 3rd place i still reckon NA to win but see what price is in the next few hours
Hello,
Have to agree with Slowly, CITY LEADER @ 40/1 has great E/W potential.
regards,
doyley
Champion
New Approach has by far the best form but has not been the same horse since the Derby. It will be interesting to see how he runs today. Will they hold him up or race prominently? The pacemaker Upton Grey does not really look good enough, might be ignored. Staying On and Full Of Gold may follow Upton Grey with New Approach possibly behind them. He’s run well below form on his last two starts. Pulled hard in the International, possibly ground a bit firm too. But did not need to be at his best to win the Irish Champion. Going yesterday looked a little firmer than the official good which may not suit. With Bolger not in as good form now he can be taken on at the price.
New Approach did not beat Traffic Guard by far in Ireland yet NA is 6/4 and TG 17/1. Traffic Guard might be a bit flattered (but only might). If he were trained by Henry Cecil or O’Brien he would be a fraction of that price.
The improving horse is the French Russian Cross, lightly raced with Fabre is in cracking form. Unfortunately was a market mover recently so most of the value has gone. Looks odds on for at least a place.
Pipedreamer comes from the bang in form Gosden yard. Seemed to falter late on in the International when looking a big danger 1 ½ out. If 100% and able to improve a few pounds he’d beat everything bar a top form New Approach. Has sometimes looked as if barely staying this trip but will give him another chance.
Twice Over is yet to prove he is as good at 1m2f or on a firm surface. Is from a stable in form and still gives the impression of not being fully exposed. Has a habit of wandering under pressure.
Linngari has pieces of good form abroad but possibly flattered by that. Stable not in great form at present.
Full Of Gold ran well enough over this trip last time but needs more of a test of stamina against top opposition.
City Leader and Hebridean look exposed as a Group 2 animals.
Staying On will not be good enough unless given a big lead.
Upton Grey pacemaker.
My prices to beat:
13/8 New Approach, 7/2 Russian Cross, 13/2 Pipedreamer, 8/1 Twice Over, 13/1 Traffic Guard, 18/1 Linngari, 80/1 Hebridean, City Leader, 100/1 Full Of Gold, 500/1 Staying On, 2000/1 Upton Grey
Mark
Value Is EverythingOne thing I would have to say Ginge despite being a huge Pipedreamer fan is he couldn’t beat New Approach last time they met. That was despite the fact New Approach was apparantly not 100% and he spent most of the race having a ding dong battle with his pilot.
If he couldn’t beat him then I doubt if he will beat him today.
I am struggling to try and remeber a worse field for this race.
Really New Approach should be a stonewall certainty but he’s such a dodgy begger you couldn’t bet him with total confidence.
However 6/4 is very very tempting for a horse who would be well odds on without the glitches in his make up.
The Derby is the graveyard of racehorses.Tartan Bearer started downhill after Epsom.As you say NA has not been the same since.Aidan uses the Derby to sort out his 3yo’s not to win the race.He was not too happy with Murtagh after Dylan Thomas was asked to do too much in the Derby.
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