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I am struggling to understand what is going on in jump racing this year, but roughly speaking it seems it’s not wise to be on anything that hasn’t had a recent run. Top flops include Silviano Conti, Cue Card, Holywell.
It looks like if you have a top quality staying chaser and you are going for the obvious sequence of Betfair Chase, King George, Gold Cup the preferred strategy is to run over a prep race of a shorter distance as a tune up. But having done that and not shown peak fitness, punters are none the wiser.
Maybe it was ever thus, but my impression is there is less form to go on than in previous years.
On the other hand you can find nice winners by opposing top horses making their seasonal debuts.
I usually look at previous seasons to see whether they needed their first outing or not plus the trainer’s form with his other FTO runners in the last few days
Mind, I do that with all runners at this time of year not just the top ones, though there’s the additional factor that they’re probably having a prep run for a bigger engagement in the next month or so which might not apply with your class 4 handicap chaser.
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