Draw, Does It Really Make A Difference

[jw]

so if we agree that the drawmakes a difference,which courses give the most advantage ive read a book on draw bias and in it they say that theres no definite draw advantage at Chester but recognise Beverly as the one with greatest , i think it was called Backing the Draw for Profit.

[prince regent]

<br>jw

i read the book u mention  i thought (i dont have book handy) he had made a list at the back of the book of which courses have distinct bias  on a chart scale

i also seem to recall  his suggestion was to check results at various courses  every 2 years to ensure the draw bias had not changed

[rory]

The advantage to be gained is as PR suggests to monitor draw bias on a regular basis – there is only an advantage when the book suggests that eg High is an advantage, but if your research suggests that Low is in fact best, then there is a potential killing to be made – I did really well at Folkestone a few years ago at a time when all public opinion was that a low draw was essential on the straight track; in reality the far side had a massive advantage in big fields, especially over 7 furlongs and I got some huge prices about a few easy winners. Today everyone knows that the far side is the place to be and they all make a bee line there, almost to the extent that a clever jockey racing alone on the stands rail can steal a race, turning the advantage on its head.

[Ponyexpress]

I am no expert when it comes to punting, (20 years of losing proves that) but I reckon that Colin Little’s reasoning is excellent. In regard to weight, Nick Mordin makes an interesting case in one of his books, (Mordin on Time I think), for entirely ignoring the weight a horse is set to carry. Personally, IMO a lightly framed small horse is far more likely to be affected by a big weight, than a great strapping brute of an animal. And what about the going? No one seemed to mention that. It must be tougher to carry a big weight through mud than it would be to carry the same weight on firm going.

Charlie.

[Daylight]

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