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Ken , why dont you drop a few names yourself old chap….
, it seems to be your mantraNot name dropping at all. I don’t know the people I have mentioned personally, only that they have proved you can make all weather racing pay with the right approach. Just giving evidence to back up my thoughts, unlike you.
On sectional timing why would you not want the information available to you, surely the more information we have the greater chance of making it pay. Yes I agree that you can not focus solely on sectional timing or speed figures nor can you on form alone but having more information at hand will give you a clearer picture to how the race might be run.
Horse racing is a very tactical affair in this country and I fully understand why people may not chose to use sectionals but even if the pace is slow we can identify the way horse ran from A to B and what it may be best suited to.
I have to side with Ginger on this argument………..it’s not how fast they run, it’s how they run fast.
Back on topic Gord – "Sectional timing is only relevant in races run at a true gallop"
In my view that is where the relevance of
overall times
is at its strongest and where sectionals are at their LEAST relevant.
What’s your definition of a ‘true gallop’ in any case?
David you’ll need to try harder than that to catch me out but my point regarding sectionals was to undermine Gingers ridiculous comment about that being his ‘edge’ to successful betting.How can someone who suggests to his army of followers to bet on umpteen different horses incorporate times into his calculations? He doesn’t!
Don’t I Gordie? You seem to think you know me better than I know myself.
I did take some sectionals of Burton Port’s Newbury performance. Most enlightening to his supposed Grand National chance.
But to be more exact it’s more "pace" than "sectionals", because like I’ve said – I don’t personallytime
many sectionals. But pace and sectionals are interlinked.
For the stuff in my earlier post they need to be done whenever relevent (it’s not necessary for every runner). However,
EDITED
as always, value being everything means sometimes I may back one that might be unsuited by pace if the price makes it worth the risk. Pace/sectionals are not everything, but are a significant part of what gives me an edge.
Value Is EverythingI did take some sectionals of Burton Port’s Newbury performance
Anyone who takes sectionals over the jumps is either stupid,clueless or an anorak………You again Ginge?
I did take some sectionals of Burton Port’s Newbury performance
Anyone who takes sectionals over the jumps is either stupid,clueless or an anorak………You again Ginge?
21.
9P82
Burton Port
10 10-8 (145) Jonjo O’Neil
4.25% 22/1
Rated 166 after 8 lengths 4th to Synchronised in 2012 Cheltenham Gold Cup; now on 21 lbs lower mark! Also 2010 Mildmay Novices winner and 3 lengths 2nd in 2012 Betfred Bowl both over Aintree’s smaller Mildmay course. Had 18 months off after latter and a change of stables, from Nicky Henderson to Jonjo O’Neil. Hasn’t been able to recapture form but encouraging 7 lengths 2nd to Summery Justice (3m2½f heavy) giving him 13 lbs off a mark of 141.
Sectional times suggest AP pressed on too early, off an already strong pace and should’ve won. Possibly the best handicapped horse in this field. Stays 3¼m, will stay further and goes on any ground. However, first time cheek pieces at Newbury with change of tactics thrown-in and slowed markedly in to one fence before stoked up again to race clear… All suggest he’s possibly not so straightforward nowadays, front running may be essential to him to produce best; which is difficult to pull off here.
Brian Harding
"Slowed markedly in to one fence before stoked up again to race clear". Question is why would the Champion jockey feel the need to increase what was already a strong pace still further to race clear? If AP did not believe it was important to get him clear of his field then he simply would not have done so. This (despite setting too strong a pace) being Burton Port’s best run of the season.
Burton Port could not get to the front at Aintree and got no further than the second fence, as you painfully found out.
Thank you for the compliment Gordie Boy.
"Anorak" is what jealous people call experts in their field. If you want to do well at anything then it is necessary to study the subject well. Go(r)d I’m good, although not as good as The Golden Anorak.
Value Is EverythingDavid
put up or shut up is at best a cheap shot !!! there are libel laws . as you are well aware
I will however respond with details to back up my opinion when I consider it appropriate , then I assure you there will be some raised eyebrows
This is a forum , I have expressed my opinions ,and will continue to do so , it is my opinion based on my observations and stats I have prepared that a lot of AW racing is well and truly bent
As for time ..Horses are not machines , and dont always behave according to plan , sometimes we can be overloaded with too much info …as Luca Cumani once said , the only people who worry about time, are those serving it (or something along those lines )
cheers
Looking forward to our Newbury meet up Gordie Boy.
You’re a jealous Gord
And you want everything
But I love you
with a knifeThe only notes that really count
Are the ones that come in wads.Value Is EverythingHorses are not machines
True Ricky, but if the punter knows how a race is
likely
to be run, he/she is ahead of the game.
Value Is EverythingI have gone over to the
"blue and purple"
a lot. Although usually give a bookmaker price on my thread, a significant number of my own bets are done on betfair. Sometimes there’s not enough liquidity to advise a betfair bet. Sometimes still advise VC, SJ, C etc to my follower when they’re the best price, yet need to take a betfair (or another bookmaker’s) price myself. Don’t like advising betfair prices that much anyway, even when there is some liquidity it can change quickly at the times I like to get involved.
Do you happen to know if your method remains profitable at SP or BSP?
Ginger has more edges to his game then a Siamese twin hexagon.
Keep talking and telling mate it will soon be a square….Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Looking forward to our Newbury meet up Gordie Boy.
You’re a jealous Gord
And you want everything
But I love you
with a knifeThe only notes that really count
Are the ones that come in wads.Thank you kindly Ginger one
you said I was out of bounds
but that aint bad for 4 days work
and £5000I just wanna play
with my band
are you good enough for me
Hiya GingeI’m the Chosen one
cant you ***** see?
Rock n Roll Swindle
Rock n Roll Swindle
Rock n Roll,
Its a Swindle,its a swindle,Gingers ways a Swindle!!I’ll match yo all the way mate!
Ginger has more edges to his game then a Siamese twin hexagon.
Keep talking and telling mate it will soon be a squareGinger squared the circle 15,151 essays ago Nathan but he never found any value in the compass-and-straight-edge
Do you happen to know if your method remains profitable at SP or BSP?
Very much doubt it Drone.
Not a clue about BSP. Went through the first few months of the jumps season looking at how my selections would work out @ SP; no profit at all. Not surprising considering am backing horses I believe are value at "Early
Odds". Most winners shorten up; can’t expect them to remain value by the off; be asking for trouble.
If betting SP I’d need to back the
late
value; with little time for the market to change; using totally different selections to an early odds market.
Value Is EverythingSupposition as I haven’t used off-course bookmakers for years but if your profit is almost wholly dependent on betting ricks in the early market it would seem you’ll be destined to remain on a lavatory cleaners wage for ever; or perhaps just Job Seekers Allowance once Coral and your remaining bookmakers pull the plug
Even in the days when bookmakers had testicles and were prepared to lay a decent bet to shrewd punters, gaining a reputation as one who only chose to bet on earlybird ricks would result in knock-backs sooner rather than later; though admittedly your strategy of backing several horses in a race would in all liklelihood moderate the risk
Your method is admirable and the publishing of your value tissues here on TRF for all to see is admirable too Ginger but in truth aren’t your value recommendations essentially ‘for information only’ – much like Pricewise – because you or anyone who chooses to use your advice is destined to either not be laid the price or to have it laid to the pennies they now only permit you
Anyway keep on keeping on, just hope you continue to feel that all the hours of study justifies what must surely be a steadily diminishing bottom line:
if
you continue to rely on bookmakers to accommodate you
IMVHO
but in truth aren’t your value recommendations essentially ‘for information only’ – much like Pricewise – because you or anyone who chooses to use your advice is destined to either not be laid the price or to have it laid to the pennies they now only permit you
Anyway keep on keeping on, just hope you continue to feel that all the hours of study justifies what must surely be a steadily diminishing bottom line:
if
you continue to rely on bookmakers to accommodate you
IMVHO
My threads are "advice" Drone. Sometimes I can not get on at the price, eg Corals would only lay me £5 @ 14/1 True Story for the Derby and as Betfair were shorter had to take 12/1 myself. As can be seen from the size of the bet (37 points) I estimated its chance at 8/1, so 12/1 was still an excellent price.
Of course if my threads had as many followers as Tom Segal it would be different, but my follower
will
be able to take that 14/1 and very probably to any size bet he/she wants. So I don’t see why you say it’s for "information only".
As have said before, a lot of my own bets are with betfair, not the bookmaker that I advise in these threads. Although evening before or morning betfair markets have a slightly worse overround than betfair markets near the off; they still tend to mirror or sometimes better bookmaker early odds. So although liquidity is a bit of a problem at that time and requires more patience – I can still take the ricks on betfair even with bookmakers closing/limiting accounts.
Value Is Everything
, it seems to be your mantra
But to be more exact it’s more "pace" than "sectionals", because like I’ve said – I don’t personally
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