August 25, 2006 at 18:23 #3547
Just perusing the catalogue for next weeks St.Leger yearling sales and had the idea for a small competition which runs as follows –
The object is to try to estimate the selling price for half a dozen lots at the 2006 Doncaster St. Leger Yearling sale. Every 1,000 guineas off the selling price (plus or minus) you lose a point. Winner is person with fewest points. Unsold lots will be void. Straightforward?
No prizes for this one, but if it works we’ll do it again for Newmarket October sales and I’ll try to sort something out.
Here are the six yearlings – just post your estimated selling price for each lot on this thread. Sale runs between 29th and 31st August. Competition closes Midnight 28th August.
Lot 13 : Choisir – Meanya<br>Ch. Colt – Mar 18th <br>Consigned by Smithstown Stud Partnership<br>Dam – won 4 times in Italy including Listed Stakes win. 1 unraced foal (by Alhaarth)
Lot 31 Invincible Spirit ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Rathbawn Realm <br>Bay Colt ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Mar 17th<br>Consigned by Albany Stud<br>Half brother to no fewer than 5 winners
Lot 122 : Kyllachy ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Rash<br>Bay Colt ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Mar 26th<br>Consigned by Cheveley Park Stud<br>Dam has produced 3 winners from 4 runners and 6 foals. Half sister to Listed Stakes winner Maid for the Hills
Lot 251 : Cadeux Genereux ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Fairy Flight<br>Bay Colt ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Mar 19th<br>Consigned by Forest Stud<br>Half brother to Gr.2 winner Just James
Lot 444 : Noverre ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Monarchy<br>Bay Colt ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Apr 14th<br>Consigned by Lynn Lodge Stud<br>Dam has produced 2 winners and is half sister to Listed placed Common Rumpus
Lot 439 : Hawk Wing ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ German Lady<br>Bay Colt ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â‚¬Å“ Apr 24th<br>Consigned by Ballydrehid House<br>Dam half sister to Listed winner Golden Pivotal
<br>This is the link to the catalogue where you can look at pedigrees in detail and check out last years prices, etc.August 25, 2006 at 20:50 #85613
Another great competition Corm!
I’ll take a wild stab at these:
Choisir/Meanya (note spelling of dam): 25,000gns<br>Invincible Spirit/Rathbawn Realm: Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 10,000gns<br>Kyllachy/Rash: 29,000gns<br>Cad Genereux/Fairy Flight: 38,000gns<br>Noverre/Monarchy: Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 32,000gns<br>Hawk Wing/German Lady: 38,000gns<br>
(Edited by Adrian at 9:52 pm on Aug. 25, 2006)August 25, 2006 at 23:43 #85614
Dam spelling noted and edited Adrian!August 26, 2006 at 17:02 #85616
Could be just you and me in this one Adrian!August 26, 2006 at 18:54 #85618
Kinda guess work, without seeing the horses, but IÃƒâ€šÃ‚Â´ll give it a go :
13 By Choisir – 31.000<br>31 By I. spirit – 42.000<br>122 By Kyllachy – 60.000<br>251 By C. Gene. – 50.000<br>439 By Hwing – 35.000<br>444 By Noverre – 22.000August 26, 2006 at 20:37 #85619
I’ve a feeling that you could be more accurate than me about the Choisir, Luis. He’s not been through the ring before and his half brother did make 67,500 last year at Deauville!
I’m really interested to see how the Choisir’s sell as yearlings. Of the 4 at Deauville 2 didn’t sell but one made 29,000 pounds and the other 72,000 pounds so he seems quite popular.August 26, 2006 at 22:19 #85621StormwatchParticipant
- Total Posts 33
I’ll give it a go Corm – good idea for a comp.
LOT 13 – 58,000<br>LOT 31 – 38,000<br>LOT 122 – 64,000<br>LOT 251 – 18,000<br>LOT 444 – 78,000<br>LOT 439 – 49,000August 26, 2006 at 22:25 #85622
I think he should be popular as well.<br>Interesting to see how the Invinsible spirits sell this year. He is producing a lot of early, nice types.<br>A yearling out of Rash ( by RApplause ) made quite a lot of money last year in this sale.August 26, 2006 at 22:40 #85623
Ok – here goes.
Tricky one this. I deliberately singled out Invincible Spirit, Noverre and Kyllachy offspring as all three have made great starts with their first crop and all three should see good returns at the sales as a result (although it doesn’t always follow!). Hawk Wing and Choisir are very interesting sires while Cadeux Genereux is a known quantity but his is a half brother to a Gr.2 winner so should be one to note.
Here is my guess (and you are correct of course Luis, we are only guessing without seeing them, although I’d still be guessing if I did see them).
13 By Choisir – 24,000<br>31 By I. spirit – 38,000 <br>122 By Kyllachy – 45,000 <br>251 By C. Gene. – 55,000 <br>439 By Hwing – 40,000<br>444 By Noverre – 28,000
I think you are a bit on the low side with the Invincible Spirit Adrian – he’s a half brother to 5 winners and the sire is off to a flyer with 43% winners to runners.<br>The Hawk Wing could be the fly in the ointment. If it is a good looker/mover it could go for a very big price. Of his sold at Deauville most sold steadily but one went stratospheric (sort of).
I like this comp though and it certainly adds a bit of interest to the sale. I’ll definitely run it again for the big Newmarket sale later in the year.August 26, 2006 at 23:15 #85624
Looking forward to it cormack15.<br>I wish I could correctly predict how much GwashingtonÃƒâ€šÃ‚Â´s half brother by Pivotal or the yearling out of Ipi tombe by Swells would realise..August 27, 2006 at 07:46 #85625WingandaprayerParticipant
- Total Posts 28
Choisir/Meanya 35,000gns <br>Invincible Spirit/Rathbawn Realm: 19,500gns <br>Kyllachy/Rash: 21,000gns <br>Cadeux Genereux/Fairy Flight: 46,000gns <br>Noverre/Monarchy: 28,000gns <br>Hawk Wing/German Lady: 34,000gns <br>August 27, 2006 at 11:22 #85626
Yes Corm I was probably being a bit churlish with the Invincible Spirit. He made 8,000gns as a foal last year at Tatts to BBA Ireland and he really should make them more than 2 grand profit.
As IS had 2 yearlings at Deauville making 29,000 and 111,000 I’ve boobed big time but perhaps people will still be tucking into the bacon sarnies when he goes through.August 27, 2006 at 13:04 #85627SalMember
- Total Posts 562
Funny, I didn’t look at the other prices entered before I worked mine out, but they do come out quite similar. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I’m with you on the IS, Adrian, very poor on bt in the family. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â But the market always keeps us on our toes!
Lot 13 Choisir – Meanya = 42,000<br>Lot 31 IS – Rathbawn Realm = 16,000<br>Lot 122 Kyllachy – Rash = 62,000<br>Lot 251 CG- Fairy Flight = 45,000<br>Lot 439 HW – German Lady = 36,000<br>Lot 444 Noverre – Monarchy = 28,000
<br>I want to put the Choisir at much more – about 55,000, but I don’t think that sort of money will be swilling about for the first few lots of the sale. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ÂAugust 27, 2006 at 13:44 #85628
what’s ‘bt’ Sal?August 27, 2006 at 19:05 #85629SalMember
- Total Posts 562
Sorry, black-type, I’m getting a very lazy typist in my old age!
There are no flat black-type animals in the Invincible Spirit yearling’s first two dams, which is acceptable in a young family, but Rathbawn Realm herself was foaled in 1987 and has had plenty of chances. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â It’s possible that Great Gift might have been placed in one of the Dutch ‘classics’ (need to be at work to check that one out!) but I still don’t think that’s a great recommendation.
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