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I see so many comments nowadays from punters feeling they have been ‘put away’ by trainers before or after a race, but I cannot understand for the life of me why anyone would pay any attention to their opinions anyway.
I can safely say that I’ve never listened to a single word (in O’Brien’s case, I’ve never even heard a single word) that a trainer has said. I’ve never modified a bet in any way on the basis of a trainer’s comment or opinion.
Firstly, they are generally not particularly articulate, most of them talking in uninformative cliches as standard. Secondly, their opinions of their horses (and often themselves) are, by definition, always inflated – anything less implies they are inept at their job. But finally, tellingly, they have no knowledge of the form of anyone else’s horse in a race, so it is impossible for them to make a value judgement that helps my betting in any way.
I remember there was a website many years ago (‘From The Horse’s Mouth’ or something equally trite) that corralled various trainers into giving the ‘lowdown’ on their charges for the day. Every comment was along the lines of “should go well today” making the project an exercise in stultifying irrelevance. It soon folded.
Mike
There have been some pretty spectacular ‘clues’ from Nicholls and McCain on their Betfair blogs this season Mike, well worth taking note of.
Recent examples include encouraging words for both Neptune Collonges and Tidal Bay from Nicholls while McCain has been very postive about a few winners. You have to read the runes a bit but the clues are in there.
I see so many comments nowadays from punters feeling they have been ‘put away’ by trainers before or after a race, but I cannot understand for the life of me why anyone would pay any attention to their opinions anyway.
I can safely say that I’ve never listened to a single word (in O’Brien’s case, I’ve never even
heard
a single word) that a trainer has said. I’ve never modified a bet in any way on the basis of a trainer’s comment or opinion.
Firstly, they are generally not particularly articulate, most of them talking in uninformative cliches as standard. Secondly, their opinions of their horses (and often themselves) are, by definition, always inflated – anything less implies they are inept at their job. But finally, tellingly, they have no knowledge of the form of anyone else’s horse in a race, so it is impossible for them to make a value judgement that helps my betting in any way.
I remember there was a website many years ago (‘From The Horse’s Mouth’ or something equally trite) that corralled various trainers into giving the ‘lowdown’ on their charges for the day. Every comment was along the lines of “should go well today” making the project an exercise in stultifying irrelevance. It soon folded.
Mike
Of cos you must always listen to the trainer/jockey but must evaluate what they are saying and their track record.
I generally find a trainer’s comment more useful when their targets are months away, because they tend to say a lot of hype when closer to their big race day.
Both jumps and Flat.
Don’t often take too much notice but it depends on the trainer. Take very little notice of positive comments, unless it’s from a pesimistic trainer. Negative comments on fitness and likelyhood of forthcoming targets are worth listening to, but not Gospel. Negative comments about ground conditions and trip I find are often worth ignoring, if there is good reason. ie form, breeding or the horse’s action / temperament suggests otherwise. Especially as negative comments from connections usually mean a better value price (horse drifts). I like disagreeing with trainers.
Value Is EverythingIn handicaps they usually confirm what you’ve already seen in the form: ‘I’m a bit worried about the ground’; ‘Bit heavy’. etc In high class flat racing their comments aren’t worth much.
There have been some pretty spectacular ‘clues’ from Nicholls and McCain on their Betfair blogs this season Mike, well worth taking note of.
Recent examples include encouraging words for both Neptune Collonges and Tidal Bay from Nicholls while McCain has been very postive about a few winners. You have to read the runes a bit but the clues are in there.
Yes, but this is an illusion isn’t it?
I should think all trainers with National/B365 runners had ‘encouraging words’ for their charges, it’s just that these two flannel a widely-read blog. Can’t believe too many trainers in the same races were saying ‘this one’s as fat as a pig and it’ll be lucky to make it out of the paddock’.
I would agree with Ginge to a point that negative points are perhaps more valuable, but even so most trainers have no knowledge of the form book and are inherently biased towards their own runners.
Mike
I reckon trainers like PN and Donald McCain are very straight and intelligently use the media to their advantage.
Others wouldn’t show you a birds nest apart from with fully exposed horses that you know will be trying for their life anyway.
Best info I’ve had has come via Jockey’s they are much better judges than trainers who expect everything that does a half decent gallop to win.
Ex Jockeys as well..like Jonjo and PN make better judges IMO unless of course your name is Barney Curley.
If the likes of Dandy Nichol’s or Mark Johnston said one would win I’d be unlikely to listen
I think you’ve got to know Jonjo to get any worthwhile info out of him.
Value Is EverythingI would agree with Ginge to a point that negative points are perhaps more valuable, but even so most trainers have no knowledge of the form book and are inherently biased towards their own runners.
Mike
Agree, most trainers have no knowledge of the form book Mike, but a lot of them employ someone who does. Primarily to aid placement of horses. Most are certainly biased. And how often do you hear a trainer say, "My stable is in such poor form at the moment, I’ve got a bad virus in the yard that we’re struggling to get rid of"? When we do hear of viruses it is after they’ve gone or only if a yard is completely closed down.
Paul Nicholls is very honest; but because he’s so open, prices are shortened up straight away immediately he utters a positive. Shortening up so much it usually pays to back against them anyway, making others "value".
Value Is EverythingFor me, it is much more profitable to pay attention to "
trainers in form
" rather than what trainers say. Although those three words are often missused. One winner does not make a "trainer in form" (imo). Looking at % ran to form figures, a small trainer who’s had 1 runner in two weeks could get 100% (if it ran to form) or 0% if that one horse ran poorly. Also, an odds on shot who finished 2nd has often ran poorly, where as a 33/1 chance in 5th has often run well. No way of doing things is ideal, but I prefur to look at sportinglife.com, on the race card, clicking on each trainers name which shows every runner in the last 3 weeks. Sometimes with a Hannon or Channon it is only neccessary to look back a few days. Sometimes with a small trainer I’ve got to look at the whole 3 weeks. Might sound time consuming, but it takes less than you’d think and doesn’t have to be exceptionally accurate.
When a trainer is doing well a horse who’s been out of form can often suddenly come back to its best at a big price. Where as the opposite can also happen, a short priced favourite who’d run well last time out being worth taking on.Value Is EverythingWhich horse was this? Beaten a half length by a future Group 1 winner in a 2011 Cheltenham Festival handicap. Below are the trainer comments for the 2012 season.
13/11/11
We know he handles the track well – he ran a cracker when he was second to a potentially very smart horse at the Festival – but he got hammered in the weights for that and he suffered a bit of a knock in his last race. It’s not easy to find races for horses of his rating so he is starting off over 2m – I would think he probably needs a bit further. This looks a very competitive race and it might all be happening a bit too quickly for him.
17/12/12
He still looks a bit high in the weights to me and the other two would have a much more obvious chance this time.
14/1/12
He hasn’t fired so far this winter and he still looks too high in the handicap. This is obviously a competitive race and you couldn’t be confident on what he has been showing.
14/3/12 Another Festival handicap, 5lbs lower than last year
He ran a screamer when he was second in the ‘boys’ race last year and he has been aimed at this meeting all season. He wasn’t in much form earlier in the year but his work has been better in recent weeks and he does seem to be coming to himself – he’s back down to a more realistic mark and the conditions should suit him well. It’s obviously a very hard race but the signs at home have been more encouraging of late.
The horse was available at
66/1
that morning and won well. (No prizes for guessing)
Trainers don’t always know what is going to happen but they are still expected to provide an opinion.
Trainer’s comments are like a map. Extremely useful, but idiots won’t make any sense of them.
I remember the old trainer who traines our first race horse. If I asked him if one of his horses had any chances in a race, and his answer was NO. It was no. If he said, No, the ground is against her, or the distance was a bit too short, or whatever, the real answer was YES.
I hear what you are saying Mike re the Bet365 but my point is that if you read those columns regularly you can get a feel for when they REALLY fancy something and very often those horses perform very well. They are quite often negative or luke-warm and it often pays to heed those words too.
An example of being wary of Trainer in Form information is a horse called Ed de Gas. He has raced 3 times once in February, once in March and again in April.
Each time the Racingpost showed a X in the Trainer form box which if you base that appraisal on the previous 2 weeks would be right.
Each of the 3 times Ed de Gas ran well and has won.
He is entered on Saturday in the Lingfield Derby Trial (he was at the 5 day entry stage but currently lingfields cards have been removed) Since the win in April Rae Guest has had 5 others race and no winners. I expect to see a X in that postdata box on Saturday but also expect the horse to run well.
Another one the same is Cockney Sparrow, Trainer form shown as bad before her last 2 races which she won.
Today Peter Chappell-Hyam has a X having had no winners in the last 2 weeks. Stepping up in class but if improving this filly might run well.
Threenaps,
With four placed horses, 2nds @ 4/1, 6/1 and 16/1 and a 3rd @ 7/1 in 13 starts since his last winner. Also 2 winners in last 16 runners: I’d say this is one of those occasions where a basicwinners per runner
or
winners in last two weeks
does NOT give a true picture. In my opinion Peter Chapple-Hym is
NOT
in
poor
form (imo). Although can not be regarded as being in
good
form. And is why I do my own
trainer in form
analysis.
Value Is EverythingGingertipster you are correct.
Why does the racingpost only take account of wins when putting a cross or tick?.
Horseracebase produce a daily Trainers Report that is both informative and easy to download.
In addition when trying to second guess trainers I’d suggest putting together a squad of say 10 to 15 trainers that you really get to grips with and understand their patterns.
Take our trainer, Alistair Whillans, he’s had a few winners this past month but also a good few second places at decent odds. Obviously his horses are in good form. Thereafter look for his horses that are reasonably well handicapped and placed to best advantage.
Ruth Carr would be another example of a trainer in fine form. She’s even be in the press to say she will have as many runners as possible in the near future as they are in such good health at present.
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