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what i’ve noticed from watching new approach in his first season as a sire is, his progeny are either completely brilliant or completely useless, there doesn’t seem to be much middle ground.
when they are good they’re very good, as exemplified by the ultra-tough dawn approach. he’ll surely be very hard to beat in the dewhurst as his trainer jim bolger has a remarkable record in the race, and tends to win with 25-1 shots in this, never mind odds-on jollies.
If dawn approach does have a weakness though, its that he doesn’t always travel that well through his races. his main strength is that he toughs it out at the end. expect him to come storming through at the finish, but if the ground dries up there would be a concern that something may get him off the bridle, and that he may drift out markedly in running.
I hate to just tip up favourites but both him and reckless abandon in the middle park, look like bankers. while for reckless abandon his task will probably be very straightforward, bag the rail and see off all challengers from the front, the tactical set up of the dewhurst may not suit dawn approach.
I can see the race turning into a crawl and something trying to beat him for toe at the end. so if there is going to be an upset i’d expect it in the dewhurst.
It is a tad early to be coming to conclusions about a sire based solely on his first season’s runners.
Dawn Approach and Reckless Abandon are the obvious winners on form though there are two interesting unexposed types in the Dewhurst, Ashdan and Eye Of The Storm, which doesn’t look the case in the Middle Park.
Seems like Teofilio another Bolger Dewhurst winner who is in his second season is doing much better this year.Intense Focus will have his first crop racing next year.They sold very well at the recent Goffs sales.
The unbeaten Ashdan is one I’ve had an eye on for a while. I was looking at a list of 2 year olds earlier in the year and his breeding just stood out a mile. He certainly looks to possess star quality in that department. He wasn’t overly impressive in his last win, though that being said the wind was blowing a gale into the field that day.
Dawn Approach’s form has been immaculate this term, and Bolger’s Dewhurst record in recent years is nothing short of remarkable. Against a horse with the raw potential of Ashdan however, I certainly wouldn’t be remotely tempted to take the 4/6 on offer right now
timeform have dawn approach 8 pounds clear of his rivals. but big two year old races, with so many unexposed horses, have a funny habit of throwing up strange results.
incidentally, I admire your confidence in ashdan but can’t see him winning. I’m not a great speed expert, but I roughly handtimed his final two furlongs in his last race and they were considerably slower than certify on the same card.
Ok certify is a now a group one winner but if you’re gonna win a dewhurst then surely you should be at least on a par with a fillies mile winner.
personally speaking I think he’s a win and place lay.
incidentally, I admire your confidence in ashdan but can’t see him winning. I’m not a great speed expert, but I roughly handtimed his final two furlongs in his last race and they were considerably slower than certify on the same card.
Ok certify is a now a group one winner but if you’re gonna win a dewhurst then surely you should be at least on a par with a fillies mile winner.
personally speaking I think he’s a win and place lay.
As far as Saturday goes you could perhaps be right but I’d see the Gosden horse as the better long term prospect.
Especially with the favourite almost certain to line up for either Bin Suroor or Al Zarooni next year
absolutely. certainly that would have to be a great fear re dawn approach for next season, given godolphin’s rather worrying propensity for ruining talented horses. you’d be much more confident of his classic hopes if he just stayed with bolger.
Incidentally the field has cut up. Theres only five rivals for dawn approach: his pacemaker, ashdan and one of charlie hills, and two of obriens. So I guess we can forget about the place betting
Jim Bolger is certainly been making hay while the sun shines with Dawn Approach running even more times than his sire New Approach who won 5 times and never showed any ill affects as a 3 year old despite losing both the English and Irish 2000 guineas.
Not many trainers would run a would be future champion so many times as a 2yo.
Somehow I doubt if he’ll prove to be anywhere near as good as Timeform seem to think he is. He doesn’t look like a 2000 Guineas winner to me and I reckon he’s a bit overrated. Granted Olympic Glory franked the form but he still doesn’t push the right buttons as far as I’m concerned.
I doubt if Joseph is on the stables first string today, there was a lot to like about The Ferryman’s first run behind Mars (wasn’t off a yard) and he absolutely dotted up when Bolger’s Leitir Mor finished 3rd to him.
He was a green as a cucumber that day, was all over the shop and young Joseph didn’t exactly cover himself in glory on him……enter Ryan Moore.
I’m sure Jim Bolger will be full of confidence as Dawn Approach is clearly better than Leitir Mor but The Ferryman is a very good horse and Dawn Approach is in danger of getting kicked into touch today. IMO
16/1 ew is a cracking bet in my book and I would not be surprised if he wins if Moore can prevent him from doing what he did last time.
I remember how we kept waiting for New Approach and Teofilo to be beaten.Similarly we wait for Dawn Approach to be beaten.All three ran so often it made no sense.Bolgers good ones seem to relish the races.
Very surprised if the favourite gets beat. Bolger has covered any tactical issues by adding a second runner and it not inconceivable that he might get a surprise 1-2. Still think Ashdan is the potential big improver and most likely to finish second. Form took a knock last night but given that No Jet Lag was supported from 4/1 to 7/4 to beat a reliable O’Brien yardstick the run was clearly too bad to be true.
Having just watched The Ferryman win at Tipperary I cannot help wondering if Moore is not being handed a poison chalice.
toughed it out there. afterwards the sheikh seemed to be suggesting dawn approach would be staying with bolger, which would be good news for anyone holding ante-post tickets.
I would not be completely convinced that dawn approach holds an iron grip on the first colt’s classic. If it’s a mediocre guineas, then yes, he’ll tough it out.
For me he looks vulnerable to something with a miler’s burst of pace. He gallops, and is tough as they come, but a bit like his sire who got done for toe by henry the navigator, he doesn’t have an instant turn of foot.
But then again genuine challengers look thin on the ground. I’m not a great fan of olympic glory, for example. It looks as if there might not be a henrythenavigtor to spoil the party this time.
How about Gerald Mosse and Kieren Fallon today; the return of the classics in the saddle.
Fairly easy win for Dawn Approach and on a line through George Vancouver that makes him superior to Reckless Abandon.
Interesting he stays with Bolger as a 3yo which can only be a good thing and with only the Racing Post to come he looks a worthy favourite for the 2,000.
The Ferryman’s run didn’t enhance the reputation of Mars who is ahead of Reckless Abandon in the 2,000 ante-post market which seems rather unwarranted.
I am surprised Ashdan ran in the Dewhurst, far too soon to be taking on Dawn Approach and he looked well out of his depth. Not sure what good that did for his career and he seems to have disappeared from the Guineas betting, having been shorter than Reckless Abandon before the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Fairly easy win for Dawn Approach and on a line through George Vancouver that makes him superior to Reckless Abandon.
Interesting he stays with Bolger as a 3yo which can only be a good thing and with only the Racing Post to come he looks a worthy favourite for the 2,000.
The Ferryman’s run didn’t enhance the reputation of Mars who is ahead of Reckless Abandon in the 2,000 ante-post market which seems rather unwarranted.
I had a close look at Mars in the paddock on his debut and, worryingly, near his withers it says "Best before 1st June 2013"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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