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Is the fact that Aidan O’Brien is sending over one sole runner to contest this year’s Dewhurst Stakes significant ?
I have been awaiting with great anticipation, not to mention expectation, the re-appearance of Rip Van Winkle.
Well, he puts his reputation ( and my hard earned
) on the line when he takes on some good colts at Newmarket on saturday.Surley he’ll hack up ? Surely
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Please tell me you havent taken antepost already?
There were rumours this afternoon the RVW may not run. That was backed up by a small shortening on the markets of Westphalia and Ashram amongst others also shortening
Please tell me you havent taken antepost already?
There were rumours this afternoon the RVW may not run. That was backed up by a small shortening on the markets of Westphalia and Ashram amongst others also shortening
No, I have not backed the horse AP.
I tend to steer clear of ante post bets these days.
The intention was to bet the horse on the day. Family silver and all that …
I am surprised to learn that he is now a doubtful runner.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Please tell me you havent taken antepost already?
There were rumours this afternoon the RVW may not run. That was backed up by a small shortening on the markets of Westphalia and Ashram amongst others also shortening
No, I have not backed the horse AP.
I tend to steer clear of ante post bets these days.
The intention was to bet the horse on the day. Family silver and all that …
I am surprised to learn that he is now a doubtful runner.
If he does run I reckon you’ll be picking up your winnings Saturday
It was something that seemed to spread over the RP news and Sporting Life (mainly) earlier today. It may just be a tiny rumour but it’s stopping me backing him A-Post. Especially as the NRNB market is only a day away now
The Rip Van Winkle doubt would not have caused the barrage of bets that have trimmed Delegator from 14/1 into 17/2.
Great race. Bound to realign the Classics markets and give reason to who is where in those markets.
Correction – more than halved his quote at 13/2, not 17/2 as I first thought.
Meehan must have leaked a flurry of confidence, because I don’t see a Dewhurst winner in that Maiden. The only horse to have raced, clear running, just stalking the speed. Pace was only moderate. He really had every chance and capitalised on race experience.
Pass.
Shame Bushranger has not been declared. I fancied him to run a good race at nice 7/1 odds.
Had a proper look at this race now and must apologise Himself for telling you not to back RVW on A-Post. Just didnt want you to not get a run for your money there incase Aidan did withdraw. Sorry if you only get 10/11 now as is forecasted
I’ll only be backing RVW here in a double with New Approach. I feel thats the only way there’s value for me in both runners for the amount I’m happy to put on the both of them (Just a small £20 double for those interested)
Of the others in this race I’m quite tempted by some of the bigger priced runners. Lord Shanakill did me proud last time out at 10’s with Sayif and Gallagher traling in behind. That form alone was franked when Sayif came in 2nd behind who I consider the best 2yo sprinter this year has produced (Bushranger). 25’s looks ridiculously big for a horse who has shown solid form on all types of ground at group level this year and he didnt look like stopping last time out and a 2nd behind Orizaba over this trip is good enough to install some confidence, especially with Soul City and Shaweel behind that day. The stable report him to be in good form too.
Huntdown being supplemented for the second race in a row sends alarm bells ringing too. John Gosden must see this one as a pretty special horse to supplement him twice for quite large sums. At 12’s this one is a good each way price for me.
Finally, Soul City for what he has achieved this year over 7f is far too big not to back. Four wins out of five at this trip in three different countries installs mass confidence for this one especially considering Jukebox Jury (winner at Ascot just a few weeks back over 1m) and Jim Bolger’s hot 2yo Gan Amhras have been behind him on his previous two victories. Both Richard Hughes and Richard Hannon think a lot of Soul City and if he is to win on Saturday he would definitely get a far more realistic quote for the Guineas next year.
I’m normally a big backer of Jim Bolger’s yard (hence being impressed by Soul City’s last run) and Intense Focus seems to be coming back into the form that he showed at Ascot back at the royal meeting where finishing 2nd behind Art Coneisseur. I dont think Intense Focus will be good enough here for a place and may have been rushed back out slightly quick. Definitely one to watch for next season over 1m though.
Small each way wagers at big prices for me. Good luck if your playing in this
Some interesting types in this open to improvement like Ashram and Huntdown. You can’t rule out Lord Shanakill and Soul City while Finjaan may appreciate the step up in trip and all are decent prices. Rip Van Winkle could well be a very good horse but the form book doesn’t justify these odds.
Lord Shanakill is the horse who interests me – the only time he’s been unplaced was when he ran over 5f at Deauville. He’s already won a Gr2 and been placed in a Gr1 so the odds of 25/1 are an insult IMO.
I know Rip Van Winkle’s one win from one race against a Cuis Ghaire does not exactly set the form book on fire – but I liked the look of him then, and thought he could something special.
We’ll find out to tomorrow.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Despite having significant doubts about the trip (on pedigree and running style), the effectiveness of the jockey, the fact he needs it like a skating rink, the form of the Molecomb, a dreadful, dreadful personal record at both Newmarket courses, and Tregoning’s motivation for running the horse in the Dewhurst (there may be an element of “tilt” in his decision making process following the disastrous Middle Park beat), I’ll be having a bet on Finjaan tomorrow.
I have but two words in my favour. Remember Mujahid! There are parallels…
I know Rip Van Winkle’s one win from one race against a Cuis Ghaire does not exactly set the form book on fire – but I liked the look of him then, and thought he could something special.
We’ll find out to tomorrow.
I agree about his potential it is just the form of those he has beaten in his two starts as hardly franked the form too well. As you say tomorrow will tell.
Ashram and Shaweel for me, Indian Haven has been having such a season so far, for one two mustnt have covered that many horses, he had the cheveley park runner up and ashram looks a smart one IMO.
Shaweel is a bet for me despite Mastercraftsman not upholding the national stakes form in france, hes tough, loves the ground, gets the trip and has gimcrack winning speed. He’ll be thereabouts and johnson won this race with shamardal 4 years ago.
Richard Hannon’s Soul City is a somewhat sentimental pick for me. Very taken by the way Hughes gradually wound him up to victory in his group 3 outing at Longchamp in September. He looks a dream ride and hope Richard Hughes makes a bold bid to make all. He may possibly have progressed more than some of his Vintage Stakes rivals at Goodwood in July.
Dewhurst
RVW is very short for what he’s done. The Bolger filly he beat last time was nowhere near form that day. O.K. he should be favourite, but I’d want better than 9/4 to back him.
My prices to beat (to 100%) and what my bookies price would be had I been an odds compiler (in brackets) to 122.8%:
Ashram 11/2 (9/2)
Delegator 13/1 (9/1)
Egypt 800/1 (200/1)
Finjaan 20/1 (14/1)
Galpin Junior 800/1 (200/1)
Huntdown 15/2 (6/1)
Intense Focus 25/1 (18/1)
Lord Shanakil 22/1 (16/1)
Ouqba 40/1 (28/1)
Prime Delivery No Price (1000/1)
Rip Van Winkle 9/4 (2/1)
Shaweel 17/2 (13/2)
Soul City 9/1 (15/2)I make Huntdown, Shaweel and Soul City all value bets all at 12/1. Have backed Huntdown as the main bet, Shaweel as a fair bet and Soul City as a saver.
Huntdown should on breeding improve at this trip and stable is flying.
Shaweel is improving and ran what was then thought to be O’Brien’s best 2 yo, close last time. It is possible he may be better on softer ground but is worth taking a chance at the price. Stable in good form too.Soul City may be able to let Egypt go and lead the others at his own pace. Would also have liked a little softer ground to be sure of a good run but is again worth taking a chance with at the price.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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