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It’s never been a great Derby trial if that’s what your trying to tell me.
Don’t know how you can say that Fist. In the last 8 years the Derrinstown has provided in the Epsom Derby, 3 winners, Sinndar, Galileo, High Chaparral, a 2nd, The Great Gatsby and 3 3rd’s, Alamshar, Dylan Thomas and Casual Conquest.
Looks a serious trial to me.
I’d be more to inclined to take the view Fame and Glory has the potential to go on what those horses achieved.
Sundays run certainly confirmed this horse is real deal Group 1 material.
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It’s never been a great Derby trial if that’s what your trying to tell me.
Don’t know how you can say that Fist. In the last 8 years the Derrinstown has provided in the Epsom Derby, 3 winners, Sinndar, Galileo, High Chaparral, a 2nd, The Great Gatsby and 3 3rd’s, Alamshar, Dylan Thomas and Casual Conquest.
Looks a serious trial to me.
I beg your pardon I was for some reason thinking of The Lingfield Derby Trial that Age of Aquarius won.
Still say the same thing though. I was extremely disappointed with Mourayan. If he had run a race where he looked like winning at one point and then the horse had done that to him I would be rushing to the bookies myself. He wont have as easy a time at Epsom especially if the winner of the Dante puts up with an even better performance.
The 3/1 is going now, only Ladbrokes are holding onto it at the moment from what I’ve seen (apologies if wrong) and I’m not surprised. If we don’t get a half impressive Dante winner I can see this horse going off 7/4 / 15/8 at Epsom.
When Ladbrokes go biggest about an O’Brien runner, as they are doing with Fame & Glory , it’s usually time to start looking elsewhere for the winner ( the Derby in this case ) .
The 3/1 is going now, only Ladbrokes are holding onto it at the moment from what I’ve seen (apologies if wrong) and I’m not surprised. If we don’t get a half impressive Dante winner I can see this horse going off 7/4 / 15/8 at Epsom.
When Ladbrokes go biggest about an O’Brien runner, as they are doing with Fame & Glory , it’s usually time to start looking elsewhere for the winner ( the Derby in this case ) .
By half a point?
Ladbrokes opened Fame And Glory odds against on Sunday and he was hammered into odds on.
Fame and Glory was very impressive in the derrinstown, for a horse whose forte looks more to be stamina than speed, he won fairly easily. On that performance he would be much shorter for most years derbys but this looks a good year. He’s not quite home and hosed for epsom yet but IMO it will take a good performance to stop him.
The Dante hasnt even been run yet and I imagine once that is out of the way his price will change, for the worse or better. If the Dante doesnt throw up something decent he’ll shorten further.
Is that a dangerous trait to have? More stamina than speed?
We certainly learned last year that a classy enough horse can outmuscle genuine 1m4f horses with a timely turn-of-foot.
Crowded House might fit the bill (but I predict he won’t remain good enough @ 1m4f) and so could Sea The Stars.
Is that a dangerous trait to have? More stamina than speed?
We certainly learned last year that a classy enough horse can outmuscle genuine 1m4f horses with a timely turn-of-foot.
Crowded House might fit the bill (but I predict he won’t remain good enough @ 1m4f) and so could Sea The Stars.
The derby (when its on good ground) IMO is half about stamina and half about early "class". IMO New Approach won the derby because he was so far ahead of anything else at the time of the derby in terms of class, and had sufficient stamina to see the trip out with how the race was run. As the season progressed I think Bolger etc made the right decision to step him back down in trip as the other 1m4f types developed. Worth remembering that the 2nd and 3rd in last years derby were late bloomers and relatively unconsidered in the public concious until a few weeks before the derby The decision not to go for the arc was a good one IMO.
To be continued, have to go…
Over the last fifteen years what is the best Derby trial.ie what race predicts the winner of the derby?
The 3/1 is going now, only Ladbrokes are holding onto it at the moment from what I’ve seen (apologies if wrong) and I’m not surprised. If we don’t get a half impressive Dante winner I can see this horse going off 7/4 / 15/8 at Epsom.
When Ladbrokes go biggest about an O’Brien runner, as they are doing with Fame & Glory , it’s usually time to start looking elsewhere for the winner ( the Derby in this case ) .
By half a point?
Ladbrokes opened Fame And Glory odds against on Sunday and he was hammered into odds on.
Half a point’s half a point . Where would you take your money if you wanted to back him – elsewhere ?
To use just two examples, Ladbrokes got it right when they never ducked Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman in the run up to the Guineas , and they went largest about Listen for the ’08 1000 Guineas all through the 07/08 winter , before O’Brien cooly announced , in March , that there was a problem with the filly and that she had been wrong for some time.
Ladbrokes rarely gets Ballydoyle wrong , and , trying to read between the lines , it could well be that the firm didn’t mind laying Fame & Glory in the Derrinstown for a very good reason – he’s no superstar . No doubt time will reveal all.
The 3/1 is going now, only Ladbrokes are holding onto it at the moment from what I’ve seen (apologies if wrong) and I’m not surprised. If we don’t get a half impressive Dante winner I can see this horse going off 7/4 / 15/8 at Epsom.
When Ladbrokes go biggest about an O’Brien runner, as they are doing with Fame & Glory , it’s usually time to start looking elsewhere for the winner ( the Derby in this case ) .
By half a point?
Ladbrokes opened Fame And Glory odds against on Sunday and he was hammered into odds on.
Half a point’s half a point . Where would you take your money if you wanted to back him – elsewhere ?
To use just two examples, Ladbrokes got it right when they never ducked Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman in the run up to the Guineas , and they went largest about Listen for the ’08 1000 Guineas all through the 07/08 winter , before O’Brien cooly announced , in March , that there was a problem with the filly and that she had been wrong for some time.
Ladbrokes rarely gets Ballydoyle wrong , and , trying to read between the lines , it could well be that the firm didn’t mind laying Fame & Glory in the Derrinstown for a very good reason – he’s no superstar . No doubt time will reveal all.
The stable backed Fame And Glory off the boards on course on Sunday when in the early morning exchanges it looked like the Oxx horse could challenge for favouritism.
If Ladbrokes never get it wrong about Ballydoyle horses why did they go odds against (Paddy Power started odds on) in the morning if they are so in tune they should have known the stable confidence in behind F&G before the off.
If Ladbrokes thought he was not a superstar or a very good horse I would imagine they would have him quite a bit bigger than 3/1. Underestimate the horse if you like but using Ladrokes as a sure guide is pretty weak as I am sure you will not revise your opinion if Ladbrokes send the horse off favourite on the day.
Using Ladbrokes odds-compilers as a guide to anything is a joke at the moment- they are the worst of the big firms by a distance- if you fancy one they’re biggest on, lump on (if they’ll lay you!) As Barney Curley said, they wouldn’t lay two bananas to a banana….
I would hazard a guess that Ladbrokes have more liabilities on Sea The Stars, wouldn’t be ssurprised that 3/1 would be snapped up by the end of tomorrow.
Over the last fifteen years what is the best Derby trial.ie what race predicts the winner of the derby?
The Derrinstown had a good run revealing Derby prospects in the early 00s.
The Dante would be the strongest guide of late.
Over the last fifteen years what is the best Derby trial.ie what race predicts the winner of the derby?
The Derrinstown had a good run revealing Derby prospects in the early 00s.
The Dante would be the strongest guide of late.
I think much depends on who has what exactly, and how each horse is percieved by their stables.
Two of the last 3 winners have come from the 2,000 guineas but IMO that was simply because of the sorts of horses they were and ecause of the strength of the opposition they were up against in the derby.
IMO the best 3 trials are the 3 group 2s in ireland (derrinstown) britain (dante) and france (prix greffuhle I think). If there is a smart middle distance sort in any of those areas then they should really be sent to one of those three in theory.
However some of the bigger stables IMO dont know just how good some of their horses are sometimes, and they can turn up in just about anything.
AOB has changed his tactics over the years and started sending horses to most of the trials, and the derrinstown and dante arent always where his best will come from. Soldier Of Fortune, Gypsy King and Scorpion are testement to this.
IMO it is best to watch every trial and decide on what you make of what you see. In advance of the trials however, it would usually be a sign of confidence in a horses abilities that they are being considered for the group 2 trials over the other trials.
From the guineas it is clear that
Gan Amhras
is very smart and he should love the derby trip.
From the Derrinstown it is also clear that
Fame And Glory
is somethin pretty decent aswell.
I also think that the Lingfield trial will work out well. Neither
Age Of Aquarius
nor
Montaff
would have liked the faster conditions on the day, where IMO Alwaary (may have name wrong) would have, yet they have performed very well IMO, and 1m4f on good ground around epsom should see serious improvement from both.
IMO all 4 of those look capable of 120ish performances around epsom on the day (if it is good ground), so it looks a fairly competetive race. Out of those 4 only Fame And Glory would currently look to be possibly poor value, although it has always worried me why montaff has been so big on the exchanges for epsom.
This looks the strongest derby in a few years IMO.
what does it mean when a horse swishes its tail? is it a good or bad sign?
Can be seen as good or bad, if they continue to swish after being hit, it means there telling the jockey this is the fastest I can go.
If it is only one swish, they don’t want to go any faster, or the whip actually hurt them.
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