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Johnny Murtagh has a thing about Rip Van Winkle so I’m not surprised to see him linked to riding him. I will be surprised though if he does ride Rip Van Winkle which will be on the back of homework and "feel" rather than on anything on the racecourse. Of course it was Seamus Heffernan that rode Fame And Glory in the Derrinstown so Murtagh wouldn’t know how the horse felt.
Johhny has got it wrong a couple of times this season – Masterofthehorse, Freemantle – maybe he’s going to have one of those seasons?
I can see Rip Van Winkle stayig ten furlongs but not sure about twelve or whether he will ultimately be good enough.
It creates a price for Fame And Glory though and it may mean Sea The Stars being a non O’Brien horse goes off favourite at Epsom.
After the 2000 at Newmarket Johnny said that RVW would not stay the derby distance. The very next day Aidan declared that RVW ‘s next race would be the Derby!So there seems to be some difference of opinion. Since then Murtagh has toed the party line.Johnny will ride whatever Aidan decides he ride otherwise he will follow Kinane out the door.Remember "whats his name " comes back in October in time for the BC.Johnny was a bit of a disaster last year at Santa Anita.
Vibes suggest Murtagh will ride RVW (all going well)…he was particularly sweet on the horse in an interview on RTE.
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Murtagh has always said RVW is a top class horse but the jockey himself has stated serious doubts about him staying. Unless a Ballydoyle horse wins the Dante by 10 lengths or a leg falls off Fame And Glory, Murtagh will be riding Fame And Glory….1/10. Repeat….Murtagh has NEVER said RVW was his number 1.
As for the Derrinstown as a trial, the comparison between Fame And Glory and Washington Irving is a non-runner…the horses compare in anyway.
The Ballysax/Derrinstown Derby trials are top class trials for the Derby.
Sweaty palms Aidan? Johnny was 5/1 to ride Rip Van, i got 3/1 he"s now 6/4! Those of us who know their horses would say Johnny wont ride Fame and glory because he just aint good enough!
Those of us that know our horses? Who are you trying to kid?
According to you "Rip Van and his awkward head carriage will see him hanging all over the shop". If that’s not a dismisal of a horses chances at Epsom I don’t know what is.
If you knew anything about horses you wouldn’t have been telling the whole forum Rip Van Winkle was a sprinter. You’ve got some neck on you slagging of people who might have thought he would ride Fame and Glory for a horse you say has no chance. If RVW is a sprinting hanger what horse would you have said he would ride? because I’m damn sure he wouldn’t be riding RVW if your knowledge of horses was correct
Anyway the truth of the matter is Johnny Murtagh has said he would love to ride Rip Van Winkle because he has a soft spot for him but on the day he won’t let his heart rule his head. That tells me their is every chance he will still ride Fame and Glory and that’s coming from a man who backed him to ride Rip Van Winkle and took 6/1 for the race and posted it on Thursday not Friday.
If someone wants to have a bet on Sea The Stars for the Derby, they can have £8 at 12 for Cape Cross to be the leading sire this season, on betfair.
edit: whoops, posted it on the wrong thread – I just saw the word Derby, unless the threads moved as I clicked on them.
IMO Fame And Glory (Provided AOB runs pacemakers for him as he has in his last 3 runs) is an armchair ride for whatever jockey is onboard. Thats not me saying he is a cert, I’m merely saying that he wont take any great jockeying, its just simple tactics "Set a fast pace, hold him up, and dont let him see too much daylight early".
RVW ceratinly has plenty of class but (if he is to have any chance at all) will have to timed to perfection if he is to win, and so I would expect AOB to put the No1 jock on board him.
It is not certain that Johnny Murtagh will ride RVW but if he does I wouldnt lose too much sleep over the decision, as it would have more to do with how each horse needs to be ridden than who is the more likely winner IMO.
As was expectable really Murtagh has went for RVW, not because he believes he is the better chance I would expect but because he needs better jockeying to have any chance..
If you were AOB and you have two horses, one who looks like as long as he has a good fast pace he’ll win, and is unbeaten by those methods. Another who needs to be timed to perfection if he is to see out the trip…
Who would you put your better jockey on, bearing in mind he trains for a stud operation, and wants both horses to have chances…
AOBs guineas horses in the derby are often ridden by the first string jockey (much like godolphins) because they need such precision timing, so before anyone gets any further carried away with backing RVW because Murtagh is on board, it may be worth bearing in mind that he will take considerably more jockeying than Fame And Glory, and it just wouldnt be like AOB to give Heffernan etc the ride on RVW.
Fame and Glory, regardless of who rides, remains AOBs best chance at epsom.
IMO Fame And Glory (Provided AOB runs pacemakers for him as he has in his last 3 runs) is an armchair ride for whatever jockey is onboard. Thats not me saying he is a cert, I’m merely saying that he wont take any great jockeying, its just simple tactics "Set a fast pace, hold him up, and dont let him see too much daylight early".
RVW ceratinly has plenty of class but (if he is to have any chance at all) will have to timed to perfection if he is to win, and so I would expect AOB to put the No1 jock on board him.
It is not certain that Johnny Murtagh will ride RVW but if he does I wouldnt lose too much sleep over the decision, as it would have more to do with how each horse needs to be ridden than who is the more likely winner IMO.
As was expectable really Murtagh has went for RVW, not because he believes he is the better chance I would expect but because he needs better jockeying to have any chance..
If you were AOB and you have two horses, one who looks like as long as he has a good fast pace he’ll win, and is unbeaten by those methods. Another who needs to be timed to perfection if he is to see out the trip…
Who would you put your better jockey on, bearing in mind he trains for a stud operation, and wants both horses to have chances…
AOBs guineas horses in the derby are often ridden by the first string jockey (much like godolphins) because they need such precision timing, so before anyone gets any further carried away with backing RVW because Murtagh is on board, it may be worth bearing in mind that he will take considerably more jockeying than Fame And Glory, and it just wouldnt be like AOB to give Heffernan etc the ride on RVW.
Fame and Glory, regardless of who rides, remains AOBs best chance at epsom.
Bulwark that is an excellent point and very interesting food for thought. I’m not entirely certain that I agree with you as Murtagh I presume will have a say in who he rides and I’m not certain Aidan will insist that Murtagh rides Rip Van Winkle as you seem to be implying.
However its an interesting school of thought and it does make a deal of sense.
I find your posts generally extremely informative and I’m very respectful of your obvious knowledge and indeed of the fact that you are not afraid to voice your point even if it isn’t what the masses tend to believe. Keep it up mate.
Murtagh has always said RVW is a top class horse but the jockey himself has stated serious doubts about him staying. Unless a Ballydoyle horse wins the Dante by 10 lengths or a leg falls off Fame And Glory, Murtagh will be riding Fame And Glory….1/10. Repeat….Murtagh has NEVER said RVW was his number 1.
As for the Derrinstown as a trial, the comparison between Fame And Glory and Washington Irving is a non-runner…the horses compare in anyway.
The Ballysax/Derrinstown Derby trials are top class trials for the Derby.
Sweaty palms Aidan? Johnny was 5/1 to ride Rip Van, i got 3/1 he"s now 6/4! Those of us who know their horses would say Johnny wont ride Fame and glory because he just aint good enough!
AIDAN, will i get paid now, or do i have to wait to see if Johnny changes his mind and rides Fame?
Murtagh has always said RVW is a top class horse but the jockey himself has stated serious doubts about him staying. Unless a Ballydoyle horse wins the Dante by 10 lengths or a leg falls off Fame And Glory, Murtagh will be riding Fame And Glory….1/10. Repeat….Murtagh has NEVER said RVW was his number 1.
As for the Derrinstown as a trial, the comparison between Fame And Glory and Washington Irving is a non-runner…the horses compare in anyway.
The Ballysax/Derrinstown Derby trials are top class trials for the Derby.
Sweaty palms Aidan? Johnny was 5/1 to ride Rip Van, i got 3/1 he"s now 6/4! Those of us who know their horses would say Johnny wont ride Fame and glory because he just aint good enough!
AIDAN, will i get paid now, or do i have to wait to see if Johnny changes his mind and rides Fame?
I was wrong….but what exactly was the bet? Amazed you are gloating about Murtagh picking RVW in the Derby….a horse you said would not get a mile and would be running in the July Cup.
I believe that Aidan assigns the jockeys to fit the horses and that Murtagh had no choice. (Aidan is not going to let a jockey upset his applecart)This was part of Kinane’s grump with Ballydoyle. They told him which horse they wanted him to ride ,and how to ride it , and he ended up on the wrong ones a couple of times. Incidentally the present riding arrangements seem the perfect match of jockey and horse.
The Derrinstown has not provided the Derby winner for thr last 7 years and whilst I appreciate what youre saying (a la Galileo, High Chaparral) I still believe it currently provides weak favourites on the basis of its past status
2008 Derrinstown Derby: Casual Conquest 3rd Epsom
2007 Derrinstown Derby Trial: Archipenko (unplaced but subsequent Group 1 winner)
2006 Derrinstown Derby Trial: Dylan Thomas (short headed place in the Derby subsequent multiple Group 1 winner from Youmzain)
2004 Derrinstown Derby Trial: Yeats
2003 Derrinstown Derby Trial: Alamshar winner and The Great Gatsby runner up. Alamshar went on to win the Irish Derby and The Great Gatsby placed at Epsom.
2002 Derrinstown Derby Trial: High Chaparral
2001 Derrinstown Derby Trial: GalileoNot forcing any opinion on you what so ever but to suggest this trial is no longer the trial it was just seems bizarre to me. Regularly is producing horses that place in the Derby and go on to be Champions.
Gan Amhras (a colt I like) beat Masterofthehorse in a Naas maiden with both having their first start.
Appreciate what youre saying Aidan, the race most definitely produces champions from the top drawer. However, I’m referring to it as A derby trial in the last 3/4 years.
In the last 3/4 years the Dante has become a bigger pointer towards the Derby winner. Motivator won it in 2005, Authorized in 2007 and Tartan Bearer in 2008. The only blip is Septimus from a race which was run on extremely soft ground.
I’ll offer up a gentlemans bet (no money involved) that the winner of the Dante will place higher in the Derby than Fame & Glory
A bit mean bringing this back up but couldn’t resist. Yet again the Derrinstown Derby trial has proved to be a top class trial for the Derbies with the second at Epsom and the winner and second at The Curragh.
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