- This topic has 95 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
One thing that has become obvious over the yrs in any big race with ballydoyle horse’s is i dont even thing they know who the is best of there’s is .
One thing that has become obvious over the yrs in any big race with ballydoyle horse’s is i dont even thing they know who the is best of there’s is .
This is true NewYork. However, despite my strong opinions about the Derrinstown I still think that AOB has never had as strong a selection of colts in the lead up to the Derby for a couple of years now.
Dylan Thomas turned into a fantastic horse and took Septimus with him to the Derby but the strength in depth this year will be the strongest Aidan has ever taken to Epsom.
IF
Black Bear Island can prove he is as good as I suspect (or indeed if Freemantle proves his expectations) this week then Aidan could end up going to Epson with Fame & Glory, Rip Van Winkle, Masterofthehorse, Rockhampton, Mailibu Bay, Freemantle, Drumbeat, Black Bear Island AND Age of Aquarius.
And thats without taking into account whether Golden Sword and any pacemakers will be sent there.
I can’t remember any pre-Epsom month quite like this for AOB.
Quite ironic that at this point in time I’m swaying towards Crowded House
Struggling to see the star quality in this horse.
Basically he has beaten the same horses twice and was entitled to win easier second time around.
Certainly nowhere near as visually impressive as last year’s winner and not the greatest of signs to see the tail go round when he got a smack.
It seems every year there is a desperation to unearth the next O’Brien superstar and so far to my eyes this just looks like the best of an average lot.
I think we saw a classic winner this weekend but that classic would be the Leger and the horse would be Age of Aquarius. Doncaster will suit him down to the ground and he will get every inch of the 1m6f.
Mourayan will not beat Fame and Glory, ever. I’m happy with the 25’s I have about Gan Amhras though as I think the 3rd and 4th in the Guineas will reverse placings with the winner of that race in the Derby. There’s no reason why Sea the stars won’t get the trip (Ouija board being a famous cape cross that did) but i’m not sure he will improve for it whereas the other two will.
It is shaping up to be a cracker though and O’Brien does look to have a very strong hand.
Yes!
I don’t think Aidan O’Brien has a strong hand for the Derby – to counterbalance, the Dante Stakes must yield an outstanding performance and trial to challenge Fame And Glory at Epsom.
- Total Posts 17716
Fist, you expected Mourayan to win well today. Aren’t you making the classic mistake – and we’ve all done it – of refusing to accept a result at face value because it doesn’t fit in with your preconceptions? To my eyes, Mourayan ran a very similar race today to the one he ran last time out and the Form Book says as much, too. If you’re right and Mourayan is a good horse then by twice giving him weight and a comprehensive beating Fame And Glory is showing himself to be a top class one.
Hand on my heart! No I am not. I call races as I see them Gus, do anything else in this game and you end up flat broke.
I don’t get emotional about these things, nor do I think just because I think something it makes it so.
When I was watching the race I clearly saw Mourayan was in big trouble a long long way from home. No one can forsee things like that happening but accept and learn from them you must.
I had from that point resigned myself to the fact the race I inticpated wan’t going to happen.
What I do think is that you are not accepting the fact that Mourayan has never travelled as badly in a race and ran a stinker. In effect the winner, who is a nice horse, has beaten very little in real terms and is not a deserving Derby favourite. I think he could run well and if nothing else surfaces could win even win. Bit as for hehimslef he lacks the final punch I would expect from a Derby horse. I think he showed that here when taking way too much time to beat the 2nd.
Maybe I am wrong but I said the same thing about Delegator and Fantasia
when they beat nothing prior to their classics and both were beaten. I also said Rainbow View and Mastercraftsman wouldn’t win the classics when they were favourites.I try to look beyond hype of newspapers and bookies and beyond face value. I don’t just look at the reasons why a horse should win a race I look for reasons why he it should not.
With Flame and Glory I have given my reasons and they have nothing to do with any preconceptions I had.
Fame and Glory has stamina for sure but he hasn"t got the speed of the
Guineas horses, nothing moves more like a Rolls Royce than Sea the Stars, but Rolls Royces dont come round Tattenham corner! Rip Van and his awkward head carriage will see him hanging all over the shop,
Masterofthehorse could easily run a place just on his 2yo form alone,
the Racing post trophy is still the best yardstick for Derby winners, so
Crowded House must be in the mix, but i am more than happy with Gan
Amrhas he will handle Epsom like a greyhound and is still available at 10
on betfair, i topped up again last night!Am I missing something here? Are we looking for the new Nijinsky or Brigadier Gerard or Dancing Brave or Mill Reef? I thought we were looking for this years Derby winner. I wouldn’t have called North Light, Shaamit, Henbit, Kris Kin, Sir Percy, Kahyasi, Commander In Chief, High Rise, Erhaab, Quest For Fame etc etc the new Nijinsky either. The three year olds aren’t very good this year (so far) it is unlikely to need a Nijinsky to win this Derby.
Fact is we don’t know how good Fame And Glory is. He’s a lazy horse at home who does nothing and is a horse that has improved for every single outing on the racecourse so far. He’s by Montjeu out of a Shirley Heights mare he shouldn’t really be winning over ten furlongs, unlike Sea The Stars who’s pedigree is half stamina / half miler Fame And Glory’s is all stamina. He hasn’t raced over his best trip yet he is crying out for a mile and a half. He could do no more than beat what was infront of him and he’s posted a mark higher than any other horse this year so far on my ratings, will be interesting to see what RPR he’s given.
The argument that he doesn’t have the speed of milers is a bit of an odd one. Entrepreneur had more speed than most of his Derby field but didn’t stay the same could be said of Rodrigo De Triano, Wollow and loads more. Indeed even the brilliant El Gran Senor was beaten by Secreto.
The 3/1 is going now, only Ladbrokes are holding onto it at the moment from what I’ve seen (apologies if wrong) and I’m not surprised. If we don’t get a half impressive Dante winner I can see this horse going off 7/4 / 15/8 at Epsom.
- Total Posts 17716
Fame and Glory has stamina for sure but he hasn"t got the speed of the
Guineas horses, nothing moves more like a Rolls Royce than Sea the Stars, but Rolls Royces dont come round Tattenham corner! Rip Van and his awkward head carriage will see him hanging all over the shop,
Masterofthehorse could easily run a place just on his 2yo form alone,
the Racing post trophy is still the best yardstick for Derby winners, so
Crowded House must be in the mix, but i am more than happy with Gan
Amrhas he will handle Epsom like a greyhound and is still available at 10
on betfair, i topped up again last night!Sea the Stars gives me the impression Tattenham corner wouldn’t be a problem as he’s such a well balanced horse. I just can’t see him winning a fight from 2 furlongs out if it comes to it with the likes of a mose likely staying type in Gan Amrhas. My problem with the latter being the opposite, if it comes down to a trun of foot he hasn’t shown to have a decisivive one in any of his races. I’m not sure going further will change that.
Fame and Glory trained by OAB is unbeaten. He’s a good horse and should be for what he cost but I’m far from conviced he’s a Derby horse.
There’s just isn’t any buzz when watching him and he is not an explosive horse like the greats of the past.This week sees the return of Crowded House. I aways try to look at what horse beats when he puts up the kind of performance he put up at Donny.
When I first watched the race I thought Jukebox Jury was going to be the one when he came with what looked like a winning run. If Crowded House hadn’t have came out of the pack like a rocket we might have been talking about him as a Classsic horse.
Jamie Spencer actually got in a bit of a muddle was going to switch one way then decided to go the other. Despite being in trouble at a crucial satge he not only caught the leaders he went past them like a real good horse.
He looked very fast that day yet Brian Meehan pulled him out of the guineas. That might worry some people but I take my hat of to the man and reckon he’s done the right thing.
Of all the contenders Crowded House has put up the most exciting performance to date but is it the best?
Probably not, but the potential is there and nothing I have seen has show a turn of foot like he has.
A reapeat of that kind of peformance this week and I reckon he will be clear fav for the Derby.
Backed him for the guineas and have decided to stick with him so backed him today for both the Dante and the Derby.
Don’t think turn of foot will be an issue this year at Epsom. Its shaping up to be a through test of stamina given the credentials of several of the market leaders. Even more reason to be against Sea The Stars.
- Total Posts 17716
Nice to have both CR but I don’t disagree with you.
There doesn’t seem to be one horse around that you can pick out and say he has it all.
It could be I am looking for something that simply isn’t there this season.
Fist, based on what I admit is very little evidence, the Doncaster doesn’t look to have been that strong. Only Set Sail’s two length fourth to Silver Frost lending any encouragement.
Colin
- Total Posts 17716
Certainly wasn’t a great race and perhaps they were just going that slow they made him look fast.
It happened with Fantasia and a lot of punters fell for it and I could be doing the same thing. Sometimes I am very confident I have spotted an exceptionalhorse but this isn’t one of them. I think got to the stage where I was trying to convince myself he was
and just thought to hell with it and went for himWe’ll find out on Thursday when he takes on Kite Wood. Many people slag Godolhin but I think he is a horse who could possibly cause a few shocks.
Kitewood has won well in good company without having to be asked too serious a question and is a hard horse to judge, but he’s a classy looking individual and does have a bit of toe about him.
I’m having a little double on Kite Wood to win the Dante and the Derby just in case.
Anyone have any idea what odds are acceptable for an ew double on the same horse, current price 6/1 and 16/1?
There would be a special price for that sort of bet, Fist.
Related event and all that business.
Colin
Hello everyone.
To say nothing has leaped out and you get a winner beating a field by 5l I find a little strange.
Dunno what else you are expecting from Fame and Glory unless you wanted him to double that, you can only put out what is in front of you and he did it easy bar the tail swish when Seamie give him a crack.
If you think the field was weak, then its best to judge on past winners of the race and when you do you will realise how good Fame and Glory’s run was, almost beat the record set in 1990 which was set on firm ground while Fame and Glory did not have firm ground. Some say you train to be first past the post but time is important to asses how good a horse is leading up to The Derby, for me it is anyway.
He will be very hard to beat at Epsom and he isn’t a big horse, dunno where that has came from.
A classy colt, the best from the O’Brien yard thus far and we wait for Thursday to see how good Freemantle and Black Bear Island are.
- Total Posts 17716
What on earth have past winners/runnings got to do with Fame and Glory or the way Mourayan ran?
It’s never been a great Derby trial if that’s what your trying to tell me.
So far it’s winners have managed to produce abot 62 losers from 70 runnings and many of them were made Derby favourites.
You’ll learn matey but it might take a while
Doesn’t really matter how 2nd ran, he was well and truly put in his place by Fame and Glory.
I don’t really think being pessismistic over the race woulld pay dividends here, Fame And Glory looked just as good in winning this as Galileo, High Chapparal and Dylan Thomas, if you remember those races, I’d be more to inclined to take the view Fame and Glory has the potential to go on what those horses achieved.
He looked a real horse in the making last year when he cruised in his maiden without having to work hard, which is when I backed him at Navan last year, he just looked the real deal and he still looks it to me.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.