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Why is he a poor jockey? I thought his Ultima rides on Corach Rambler were quite good. I see that he had one ride, a beaten favourite, today but I didn’t see the race.
Tried to make all today but at much too slow a pace and got swamped on the run in even as his mount rallied. Lucinda rightly praises him as a horseman, but his pace judgement and, arguably positioning in a race are questionable.
I agree. Looked a poor ride today. Needed to make more use of his stamina as he was clearly on the slickest hurdler in the field. Opportunity wasted you feel.
That said and with hindsight, the stable has not exactly been firing recently. 2 from 38 this month. Both favs beaten today. Wadge only rode 5 of those 38 but he did win on one of them.
If you consider the Lucinda Russell stable to make the top 10 list among trainers reglarly, that’s what she achieved in the past three years, then you need a better jockey than one with a career strike rate of 10% in hurdles (122 from 1266 rides) and 11% overall. His chase record is slightly better at 166 from 1222.
In hindsight I would imagine that Fox probably would say that he should have gone faster or maybe kicked on a bit earlier than he actually did but he did somewhat get the run of the race in front and was best placed and got first run on his rivals off the turn, so you probably have to mark up the first and second a fair bit as they both also have 3m PTP form so wouldn’t have been best suited to a burn up off the home turn especially as they had to go and quicken up past a quicken horse.
Not sure that Fox would have won even if he went a stronger gallop as that also would have suited the first two as well and Ruby was commentating on just how difficult it is to ride from the front on the New Course at Cheltenham and was not only pointing out via the timed 1F fractions thoughout the day which of the leaders of the races were going too fast and wouldn’t last home but also what ones were getting racing too early as well.
Fox is an ok jockey by and large (overall his S/R has been between 12-14% for the last 5 seasons) and he has been inside the top 30 jockeys for the last three seasons but the stable has been pretty quiet for a while now with only 2 wins from their last 40 runs (5% S/R) with their last winner being back on 7 December so there is only so much he can do.
I used horseracebase to look at Fox and some random others on strike rate. These are career figures, which should even out yard form.
Fox 10.72
S Bowen 18.88
D Maxwell 19.54
Gina Andrews 14.18
P Wadge 12.91Fox on outside rides is 8.66
Well, he’s won one Grand National more than a lot of top jockeys. In fact he’s won two more Grand Nationals than most top jockeys, too.
Grand Nationals play to his strengths as a horseman. He’s very good at getting a horse over a jump. It was interesting to look back and see his Grand National winners never won another race, having gone into the big one on an upward curve and well treated. Haven’t checked others but I’d imagine there are quite a few Grand National winners Who failed to win again. Such are the effects of top notch stamina tests.
I think its been better in recent years but I believe after Bindaree in 2002 the next horse to win a chase after winning the GN was Many Clouds. Others in between may have won over hurdles.
“Fine horseman, no doubt, but a poor jockey it seems.”
Couldn’t you say that about a lot of riders now?
Looking back at the riders over jumps when I first started watching racing, it is clear that the riders today look better. Perhaps they are also technically better, purely from a riding a horse point of view.
But are they better jockeys? In terms of positioning horses in a race, judging pace, tactical awareness etc? I am not so sure.
As for Derek Fox, as moehat reminds us, he has ridden two Grand National winners, so perhaps it is unfair to single him out. He has had a more successful career than most jockeys. I do believe he has ridden some poorly judged races as well – Ahoy Senor in last season’s Old Roan, for example – but what jockey hasn’t?
There surely are some poor jockeys out there, but I cannot think of one who holds a retainer-type position in a prominent yard. And whether Lucinda should be praised for her loyalty to Fox or condemned for not getting the best available for her owners is an individual choice.
I am not having a go at Fox from any personal or emotional or financial wish to bring him down, I am interested mainly in that loyalty factor. Many will say Scu will know a good jockey when he sees one, and I don’t doubt that, but how much weight does his opinion carry as far as Fox goes?
And remember, I am talking about one aspect of race-riding, jockeyship (I see it the same as boxing – some very successful boxers are ‘fighters’ but most in history are also boxers in that they have the art as well as the heart). If the debate were about the best horseman among jockeys, Fox would be very high on the list.
We’re fortunate these days to have reliable stats, and in this case they show the conclusion based on strike rate is most convincing.
“There surely are some poor jockeys out there, but I cannot think of one who holds a retainer-type position in a prominent yard. And whether Lucinda should be praised for her loyalty to Fox or condemned for not getting the best available for her owners is an individual choice.”
Lucinda Russell trains at the North Pole. Who is she going to get to be stable jockey who is better? Google maps tells me that Kinross is 5 hours north of York, for example. Over 4 hours away from Carlton in Cleveland where Brian Hughes lives with his family. The only other person you’d be able to ride out for is Santa.
https://lucindarussell.com/meet-the-team.php?id=511
He has been there 12 years so he’s loyal to them too. Sounds like he is more or less another assistant trainer in addition to Peter Scu.
I tend to agree with Joe. He is very good over longer distances and his two National wins on One For Arthur and Corach Rambler are surely no fluke. But, here we are talking about horses who are sound jumpers and stay the longer trips very well. Over shorter trips where you have to take faster decisions or position yourself better during a race is where his weakness lies, imo. He is a fine horseman and I’m sure he’s good at schooling horses too, but over hurdles or shorter trips I wouldn’t want him on my horse.
Lucinda Russell trains at the North Pole.
Lol.
She doesn’t need a stable jockey. Fox will have plenty to do teaching them to jump and a precious asset in that. But he ain’t going to get a stable jockey post elsewhere. Maybe Lucinda could say, ‘You ride all of hours in staying chases. We book the best available for everything else.’
Speaking from about 10 miles south of the North Pole…
The stable policy is that they tend to work it so that each jockey has their own horses. Certainly was the case when we had a share in Outlaw Tom and I don’t think things have changed.
I would have preferred Patrick Wadge riding Myretown in the Coral Cup as I think he just clicked with that horse at Cheltenham. Patrick was tried on Ahoy Senor and arguably rode him to his best recent performance at Aintree in the spring. Derek Fox has been excellent over the Grand National fences in recent years.
Looking deeper at my assumptions that Fox would excel in long distance chases … not the case.
Strike Rate
Chases2m to 2m2f:16.48
2m to 2m5f: 12.78
3m2 to 4m: 10.39
3m2 to 4m4: 11.43Hurdles
2m to 2m2: 9.17
2m to 2m4: 9.2
3m to 3m5: 11.4I had assumed that the more fences in a race the more his horsemanship would count. The figures suggest his specialisation is the faster run races where, perhaps, mistakes carry a much higher penalty to your chance of winning. That too makes sense, and I should have considered it. When I was young, Johnny Haine was a star hurdles jockey. Once established, I believe he only rode in hurdle races. It looks like Lucinda would do well with Fox on the chasers and a modern day Johnny Haine on the hurdlers.
Am obliged to the excellent Chris Bagnall at Horseracebase for the stats.
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