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Derby and Oaks…

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  • #1647
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1147

    With two relative outsiders winning today’s Classic trials are this year’s Epsom showpieces looking incredibly open, or simply incredibly weak?

    I for one was very taken by the performance of Kayah, and will certainly be investing in her for the Oaks.

    Winning with Hughesy on board is testament enough to her ability, but she looked much in need of the experience and will surely have improved markedly for it. The hill looked to catch her out a little bit, which is a worry for Epsom, but she steadied herself pleasingly and won nicely, considering.

    #58917
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    LGR

    Hold fire on your Oaks bet, she was the only one from today’s contest not entered for Epsom.

    It’s not surprising that the Epsom races are still quite murky with O’Brien yet to declare his Derby hand and the York trials still to come. Bar Spanish Moon, I wasn’t impressed with a maiden winner last year more than I was Measured Tempo and, bred for the job, I think she’ll run a cracker in the Oaks if she can negotiate her trial well enough.

    #58920
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    I was very taken by Aqaleem. Happy to have a small interest at 20’s

    Gave the impression that he would benefit and run better for the experience today too

    #58921
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    Aqaleem’s trial was no more than adequate IMO. I think tomorrow in Ireland and Tuesday at York will tell us a lot more.

    20/1 appears a good trading price though, as it seems pretty likely he’ll be at Epsom and if he does go he’d start probably 14/1 max, possibly as short as 8/1 if the remaining trials are inconclusive. Doesn’t mean he’s value though, just that it’s probably a tradeable price.  

    #58923
    Lingfield
    Member
    • Total Posts 919

    Despite Lingfield’s similarity to Epsom, its Derby trial hasn’t been relevant for several years.

    Aqaleen was the more impressive of the trial winners but Tregoning was non committal as to whether to go for Epsom, fearing the colt was too inexperienced. I couldn’t be having the any of the vanquished behind for the classic.

    Kayah was under pressure some way out but stayed on under hard driving to win. She had a hard race and the first 3 were in a heap. I reckon she would struggle to go the pace in the Oaks and requires supplementing anyway. Those connections in the places have stronger candidates with the likes of Passage of Time, Light Shift and Measured Tempo.<br>The trials at least enabled connections to sort out a merit order and pick up some black type/group placings.<br>More will be revealed in Eire and at York. <br>

    #58925
    Maxilon 5Maxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    Don’t forget that Aqaleem beat current Blue Riband fancy Authorised at Newbury – and today seemed to confirm that Tregoning has a good colt on his hands.

    Travelled easily and when asked the question, quickened nicely and lengthened away.

    I think he’ll go for the Derby.  Not sure about the Oaks trial. A strange result.<br>

    #58926
    LetsGetRacing
    Member
    • Total Posts 1147

    I’m not a huge fan of Passage Of Time I have to admit, and have a nagging feeling that she’ll fall short in the Oaks, but you certainly couldn’t dismiss Aqaleem for the Derby on today’s effort.

    Authorized is a horse I will continue to take on right until the off, as I’m still unsure as to what he achieved in winning a heavy-ground RPT and am drawn more to the likes of Salford Mill and Mariotto (although what the status of the latter is, I don’t know).

    #58928
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Quote: from Maxilon 5 on 9:10 pm on May 12, 2007[br]Don’t forget that Aqaleem beat current Blue Riband fancy Authorised at Newbury – and today seemed to confirm that Tregoning has a good colt on his hands. <br>

    So did Teslin, and Authorized convincingly reversed the placings in the RP Trophy.

    #58929
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Wouldnt read too much into Aqaleems 2yr old form myself (although beating Authorised is fine). Hes clearly inexperienced (my one problem with the Derby) and Sinndar’s (i notice now) seem to do better at 3

    #58931
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    I expect this year’s Derby, as usual, will work out as well as your average Brighton seller.

    #58933
    Lingfield
    Member
    • Total Posts 919

    Quote: from Mounty on 10:57 pm on May 12, 2007[br]I expect this year’s Derby, as usual, will work out as well as your average Brighton seller.

    Not a bad point- most of the recent ones never won another race.

    #58934
    guskennedy
    Member
    • Total Posts 759

    With reference to the Derby, I’m not sure that the Guineas will be particularly relevant as a trial this year. Duke Of Marmalade won’t stay, Eagle Mountain is unlikely to do so and Strategic Prince doesn’t look quite good enough.

    Despite the lukewarm reaction to their victories this week, Soldier Of Fortune and Admiralofthefleet impressed me. The latter isn’t certain to stay on pedigree but runs for all the world like a horse who will and we know SOF gets the trip. The times of their respective races were very decent indeed and AOTF already had a good timerating from the Royal Lodge to his credit anyway. On public form, they’re the best from Ballydoyle.

    (Edited by guskennedy at 9:45 am on May 13, 2007)

    #58935
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    I expect this year’s Derby, as usual, will work out as well as your average Brighton seller.

    Harsh – within the last dozen years we’ve had 4 outstanding champions winning it and several who were beaten in the race going on to prove themselves as out of the top drawer.  

    Is there any other race confined to three year olds with a better long term record of identifying true champions? <br>

    #58937
    ToneLoc
    Member
    • Total Posts 101

    The Guineas?

    #58939
    jp
    Member
    • Total Posts 9

    In a very English way we seem happy to criticise our premier classic.  However, in recent years the race has produced winners at the Breeders Cup (High Chapparal twice), multiple Arc winners (Sinndar, Sakhee who was second in Sinndar’s Derby) and King George winners (Galileo.  Some truly outstanding horses have won the Derby in recent years.  

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