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I agree Ian he was over hyped coming into this and I couldn’t believe his price for what he has achieved. I wouldn’t draw too much conclusion from today just yet, he was blocked in initially whilst others were making their challenge, admitidley he did not go through the gears when he got day light but thats hardly surprising for a horse that is likely to be suited by another 2f.
I think there is more to come from Black Bear Island for sure.Black Bear Island definitely doesnt look up to derby class to me, obviously he did look very green today, and didnt have the clearest of runs (had options though), but that looked like a poor enough old race, and anything with a chance in the derby should have won. All in all looks like a hypemiester.
Oh dear Bul, i think you will eat those words come June!
Wilson I think you underestimate how good the average derby winner actully is, they usually appear have an abundance of class at 1m2f in their early season 3yo contests (unless obviously if they come straight from the guineas). Another thing which derby winners almost always have is early signs of significant class. New Approach, Authorized, Motivator, High Chaparral, Sir Percy for example all had decent 2yo grade 1 wins. North Light won the grade 2 Dante on seasonal reappearance which threw up the same tricast at epsom.
A horse who didnt even have the speed to change his course there, with plenty of distance to go, and couldnt even pick up when given daylight, is unlikely to have any chance at epsom. That wasnt a dante stakes he was running in, it was a pretty poorly contested pattern race.
In the fullness of time he may not prove to be a complete disaster, but looks to have the stink of a "horse who’s related to another decent horse" gamble from the AOB yard, a la Macarthur and Washington Irving. There were a few who still gave Washington Irving a chance after his defeat in a similar quality race. Also, similar to Washington Irving and Macathur, AOB was quite quick to put them out, early in the season, for a defeat (almost as a warning to punters).
I would find it hard to believe that AOB hasnt got a few better than that, and find it harder once again to believe that we wont see one or two better than that over the next few weeks, before the proper derby trials even start.
Firstly I am not saying Black Bear Island will win the Derby, I do not know. But if history is anything to go by it is absolutely folly to rule out a Ballydoyle colt running for the first time particularly in April.
The horse was not wound up, and not asked to concentrate and quicken. It looked almost as if Murtagh wanted that gap not to open immeadiately so he could teach the horse more. Loads of examples of Ballydoyle horses that have looked slow/awkward in trials but different animals on the day that counts….even more evident in the type of horse they send to the French trials..Septimus,Aussie Rules, Landseer, Astronomer Royal all well beaten in trials in France only to come out and win on their next outings. The last three all went on to win the French Guineas after been beaten in their trials. It’s not a co-incidence, its getting to the stage where O’Brien is sending horses to the early British Classics with the idea to win (obviously) but also to improve for the run.
As for him being all hype yeah that is true to an extent but its also quite lazy. The horse made his debut in one of the hottest maidens run in Ireland last year. He had Sea The Stars (subsequent Group winner) and Freemantle (highly regarded and impressive maiden winner subsequently) behind him on his debut, while on his second outing when he won at Naas he had subsequent group winner and Group 1 placed filly Dreamtheimpossible behind him when beating her 3-4 lengths.
But aside from that, and weither you fancy the horse or not for the Derby I would say do not just a Ballydoyle horse until his second or third run. Look at Perfect Truth, the one horse from the yard that has run twice this season. Well beaten in a maiden first time out, she has since come out and just got touched off in a listed event at Dundalk.
The last three all went on to win the French Guineas after been beaten in their trials
Indeed Aiden and Antonius pius was also beaten in the Fontainbleu before he should have won the Poulains. However AOB was taking Westphalia to the Fontainbleu today (who deserves a second chance), and sometimes AOB will just take something else along for the ride when he travels and there are a few other decent races on the cards.
I agree that his 2yo form doesnt look overly bad, and that would hint more at him having some sort of chance than todays performance, however at the same time IMO he will have to do something decent next time before I’d become a believer.
Wilson I think you underestimate how good the average derby winner actually is,
To be honest Bul, i cetainly dont overestimate the average Derby winner
either! Black bear island was another that never actually had a race today
he was still being held together 2 out and the race was all but over when he finally was asked to make an effort, it would not put me off him for the Derby, he still has the "look" of a good un! The horse i am looking forward to seeing is "Age of aquarius" if you won a Derby on looks alone then he would do a Slip anchor!If we’re having a sweepstake on what the best O’Brien Derby horse is, then I still like my original suggestion of Fame And Glory.
He is by Montjeu, which will turn someone on, and was unbeaten as a 2yo, winning a Group 1.
Had a good word for Sirgarfieldsobers from the O’Brien yard earlier in the year so I duly backed him – think he could be the one for them this year though his 2yo form leaves him with a fair bit to find.
If we’re having a sweepstake on what the best O’Brien Derby horse is
I’ll take a chance on Malibu Bay.
Liszt – I backed him at 430. Fourth in a very good maiden first time he won well enough next time and is entered in the right prep races. The ballysax and then the derrinstown will tell us who is the top dog at Ballydoyle.
I do like Gan Amhras as well. I’m all over the Galileo’s this year.
Okay, change of tack. I want to raise a horse, for people to discuss whether it will be suited by 12 furlongs. I put £2 on Palavicini at Christmas, for virtually no other reason than he was a big price.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/palavicini
He is one of only two John Dunlop entrants in the race – the other having a rating in the 70s.
He will probably run over 10f at Newbury on Friday, and has entries in the Dante, Derby and Irish Derby.
Can a horse by Giant’s Causeway be effective over 12f, even if it has Sadler’s Wells and Troy in the bottom half?
Edit: coincidentally, the other horse that I put £2 on at Christmas at a big price is also by Giant’s Causeway out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, and is also running on Friday, this time at Dundalk.
Can a horse by Giant’s Causeway be effective over 12f, even if it has Sadler’s Wells and Troy in the bottom half?
Well pretty much everything that giants causeway has knocked up on the flat that has been top class has been over 1mile to 1m2f (and dam side stamina almost seems irrelevant beyond 1m2f), however he also had Jack The Giant who (in equivalent stamina terms) has gotten further in trip at the top grade over jumps.
On fast surface at a not too searching clip I see no reason why a giants causeway couldnt be capable of winning at 12f, I think Duke Of Marmalade proved last season that there is regularly a significant lack of class at 1m4f on a fast surface.
Would I back him for the derby? No, I always bet antepost for epsom on the off chance that it is good ground, and on those conditions I would expect there to be plenty of contenders to chose from who will be better suited to those condition.
Gerald wrote:
Edit: coincidentally, the other horse that I put £2 on at Christmas at a big price is also by Giant’s Causeway out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, and is also running on Friday, this time at Dundalk.
No need to be embarassed about Chief Lone Eagle – at least I hope not! The form of his only race (a win) has been working out really well, with Toraidh and Rockhampton behind him that day already impressive winners this season. (Should be interesting to see what they do this week.) I’m really looking forward to CLE’s reappearance – but I think he’s been entered twice and not run in recent weeks, don’t know why but maybe not a good sign. Because of that win, he’ll be giving away a fair amount of weight in the Dundalk race – hope he can win it or at least give a promising account of himself.
Chief Lone Eagle is not running in the 8f race at Dundalk tomorrow. Is something amiss with him? Three times entered, no runs, is beginning to look suspicious.
BTW, Gerald, I would guess he’s regarded at home as most likely being a miler rather than a middle distance horse. That is, if he makes it to the races this season.
Yes Nefertiti. I’ve been doing some research on the 2000 Guineas this week, which I’m not yet ready to publish, and Chief Lone Eagle has a good pedigree profile for that.
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