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Cannot find the thread that kicked this thread off. I remember someone on here saying Rip Van Winkle wouldnt get a mile and would turn out to be a sprinter…despite all evidence suggesting otherwise. Interesting to hear his views now?
Cannot find the thread that kicked this thread off. I remember someone on here saying Rip Van Winkle wouldnt get a mile and would turn out to be a sprinter…despite all evidence suggesting otherwise. Interesting to hear his views now?
Its the 2,000 Guineas thread itself Aiden and the quote your thinking of was from The Antepost King.
Its just his breeding mainly Marb that made him stand out as a potential speculative bet. Hamoody a few seasons back was Johannesburg/Gulch, Refuse To Bend was Sadlers Wells/Gulch and Montaff is Montjeu/Gulch. Coupled with his early signs of at least some ability and I fancied having a very small go at fancy prices.
He appeared to be working well a few months ago on MickChannontv but theres been little mention of him for some time and he has been massive on the exchanges for some time also, which speaks volumes. According to the teletext gallops section the toher day he is due to run in a handicap at the roodee so I assume he’s entered in a few races this week then?
Personally, unless he’s went right off the boyle I say stick him in the Chester Vase it would be good to see what he can do. The 1m2f Dee Stakes is usually the better of the two trials at chester for the derby though. Im not too big on the chester vase and lingfield trial as like to see a horse trained for speed and work out from how they stay on at the end.
I’ve just been re-reading through this thread. There’s been a couple of nice discussions, and no name-calling.
I wonder how long it will last?
(Apologies for me deleting all my dosage work in January – I lost respect for it, so decided to get rid of it.)
Gan amhras is the horse i see as the most likely Derby winner up to now!
If Crowded House does what he did in the Racing post trophy at York he
will defineately be favourite,i dont see Fame and glory having the speed of
these two and i have stamina doubts about Sea the Stars and Rip Van!I quite like Debussy for the Derby, be interested to see how he runs this week at Chester.
Trainer did state that Gan Amhras was his Derby horse [oh yes it is; oh no it isn’t]. Was expecting him to come 4th in the Guineas [4th in the Guineas 1st in the Derby…] but 3rd is ok. However, O’Briens horses don’t always show their true colours till closer to the race
. Wonder if this Watchman [sp] thing is having an effect at Ballydoyle? Just a thought.
Moe, Wachman is having an effect because he is taking away some of the best horses, or because O’Brien and other people aren’t single-minded on the job on hand, and are thinking about other matters as well?
Anyway, given the Thread Title it is time to get our hands dirty and ask the question
Will Sea The Stars stay 1m4f in the Derby?
I suppose we first of all have to define what that means. For instance, Ajdal came fourth in the Derby. I’ll take it as meaning that he will get just as high, or higher RPR for the Derby as for the 2,000 Guineas.
I suppose one answer is that if John Oxx thinks he will stay, then he will.
Okay, I’ll look at his Dam this time, and his Sire tomorrow.
Urban Sea’s Progeny’s Best RPR
Galileo (Sadler’s Wells 11.3) 132 12f
Black Sam Bellamy (Sadler’s Wells 11.3) 121 12f
My Typhoon (Giant’s Causeway 9.1) 118 9f
Urban Ocean (Bering 10.1) 117 10f
Melikah (Lammtarra 10.5) 116 12f
All Too Beautiful (Sadler’s Wells 11.3) 113 12f
Cherry Hinton (Green Desert 7.9) 103 12fI think I read somewhere that Urban Sea’s progeny tend to take after their Sire in terms of distance. Although this is generally true, the exception is Cherry Hinton, and it is Cherry Hinton that interests us most, because Cape Cross’s Sire is also Green Desert. That makes Cherry Hinton roughly a 3/4 sister to Sea The Stars.
Cherry Hinton achieved her best RPR when coming 5th in the Oaks.
I’m coming down on the side that says Sea The Stars WILL stay.
I’ve had a quick peek at Cape Cross, and he seems to get Milers. But I think that may be because of the types of mares he has been mated with. I’ll have a proper look tomorrow.
Oh, I’ve just remembered – this thing about horses being too quick to stay. Was Dancing Brave too quick at a Mile to stay 1m4f?
Rip Van Winkle direct to the Investec Derby.
I’ll put it on record that he
will not
stay 1m4f.
Read an article in one of the papers [Telegraph perhaps] about O’Brien, and he seemed to be looking to the future; even the possibility of training jumpers again..just gave the impression that cracks were appearing. However, only my interpretation of the journalist’s interpretation of what was said.Also, nothing is as strong once it starts to fragment.
Either the "wachman" thing is kicking in or Aidan is starting to renegotiate a new contract at Ballydoyle.Or a combination of both.Right now David is in the same category as Charles. They are both related to the "man" and so far neither has set the world on fire.
If Mourayan reverses places with Fame and Glory on Sunday and wins as Oxx thinks he will then Oxx looks a good thing to win the Derby.One way or the other it will be as Sgt.Schultz said "Very Interesting." to see.
Nice to see a reference to Hogan’s Heroes – haven’t seen it for about 30 years I reckon. Perry & Croft could have a written a good comedy series set in a Prisoner-Of War camp, but they chose a British Holiday Camp instead.
As I’m supposed to be doing less posting on the Forum, and a bit more number-crunching instead, my first project is to get my spreadsheet for the 2010 Grand National up-to-date (currently up to L).
As my Derby Dosage spreadsheet was in the same directory, I decided to have a look at it. I think it contains all the entrants that had an RPR of at least 85 at the end of their 2yo season.
Interestingly, Sea The Stars is 56th out of 58 in terms of stoutness of pedigree (measured by Centre Of Distribution). After I made my "improvements" by making a few extra horses Chefs-de-Race, Sea The Stars dropped to 57th out of 58.
Don’t take too much notice of it though – Dosage because of bad methodology, aside from any notion that it isn’t genetically accurate, is out-of-date, and the Kentucky Derby winner had the worst dosage profile in the field.
Not looked over the whole thread as yet, but i will stick with Masterofthehorse for now as the trip looks no problem
Age Of Aquarius runs tomorrow, to be truthful I would have much preferred he started off in the Dante, if he was held in as high a regard as I had hoped. I suppose that his pedigree would suit Lingfield better than a flat and fast York at 10f. I added Golden Sword and Sans Frontieres at small stakes big prices some time ago. Age of A probably needs to be very impressive tomorrow.
I’ve heard from a fairly decent source today that Freemantle is Aidan’s best Derby hope at this stage. Couldn’t believe it when I heard it myself given that it took him three runs to break his maiden and that was in a weak enough contest down at Limerick Junction but the lad I was talking to is fairly clued in to the goings on at Ballydoyle.
I know this sort of stuff is banded about year in and year out (Pescatorio anyone?
) but I thought I’d pass on what I’ve heard.
) but I thought I’d pass on what I’ve heard.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.