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With stamina doubts about Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle and the majority of the rest running for either social, fact finding or pace making reasons, its between Black Bear Island, Gan Amhras and Fame and Glory for me.
I’d slightly favour Fame and Glory but will bet 4/1, 7/1 and 8/1 the 3 of them, value imo.
What did people make of Magnier’s comments a couple of days ago that Masterofthehorse had put in a good piece of work last week?
Call me controversial but reading between the lines I interpret these comments as tending to suggest on balance and all things considered that Masterofthehorse worked well last week.
Hi Gus, but instead of going for the cheap laugh,maybe you would like to edit that to say
"Call me controversial but reading between the lines I interpret these comments as tending to suggest on balance and all things considered that you should put Masterofthehorse in a trifecta with the two favourites."
I’m fairly sure that Magnier doesn’t usually give much away, and next time I’ll try to act upon it.
Well as author of the thread, I didn’t tip the winner, but I’m pleased that
(i) I erased the dosage stuff in January, which had Sea The Stars as 56th of the 58 horses I was looking at.
(ii) When looking at Urban Sea’s progeny I said that Sea The Stars would stay
(iii) When looking at Cape Cross’s progeny I said that Sea The Stars would stay. (However, as these last two points were marginal, I was doubtful about Sea The Stars coping with them combined.)
(Iv) I put up the Mare Conduit Profiles, which had Rip Van Winkle and Sea The Stars as the two stoutest horses.
Had a saver today, which covered my ante-post win bets. However, my place book was a disaster, and was actually bigger than my win book.
(Got a bit squiffy on Blue Riband Trial day, and used a bit of my Extraterrestrial winnings up.) Have got £5 (all that was up for grabs) at 12 on Cape Cross to be leading Flat sire in Britain & Ireland 2009, so that will provide a bit of interest for the remainder of the season.I’ll leave the analysis of the race to the experts.
Is Masterofthehorse the most successful ever full-brother/sister to an Epsom Classic winner? Think so.
Well I don’t really think there’s much to say. A truly phenomenal winner. The pace wasn’t lightning quick, but then again I think maybe that was planned to give Rip Van Winkle the best possible chance. Unfortunately they didn’t realise Pegasus was in the field as well. Although to be honest, if Sea The Stars is to be beaten by a 3yo this year (excluding the Arc), I’d say it’s probably Rip Van Winkle over 10f. However I think that’s only an outside chance. He has pace, he has stamina, he has absolutely everything. Kinane had so much reign left at the end and he only needed to give him 2 smacks. Earlier in the programme Kinane said Galileo was an armchair ride and I think that was probably a Chez Long ride.
Fame and Glory will be winning a Group 1 this season, probably at The Curragh in a month’s time. For some reason I just don’t really think of him as a superhorse at all. Actually I’d sooner be on Masterofthehorse who I thought ran a blinder off a pace that wouldn’t have suited him so much. I and a couple of friends have said he’s probably their Leger horse for the last 3 weeks or so but he might have enough pace for 12f as well. He could also end up being a Solider of Fortune-type. Thought Hughes gave him a fantastic ride. He has his knockers (
) but for me, Hughes is one of the very best Group 1 jockeys around. He’s fantastic at holding them up and fantastic from the front. He had Plum Pudding in the 1m 1/2f race earlier in the card and Pure Poetry last week in the Listed race at Goodwood – in both races he set a slow pace and only in the final 100 yards was he beaten yesterday and in the final 20 yards last week. Moonstone last year in the Oaks, MOTH in the Derby – for me, he’s one of the top 5 jockeys.Rip Van Winkle ran a blinder and I think the addage ‘If you’re a guaranteed stayer, you’re too slow for the Derby’ has been proved correct. Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle were the 2 non-stayers and they’ve finished 1st and 4th. Interesting Galileo hasn’t actually got a good record at Epsom at all, noticed it last night. Has actually had far better success over a mile in the various Guineas. Over the past 4 years, 5 fillies in the Oaks were all unplaced and of 10 colts in the Derby, only New Approach finished in the top 3.
Golden Sword seems to be being used as a reason to crab the form which could turn out to be true, but on his seasonal reappearance he was given his own pacemaker in France. Obviously won the Chester Vase and he’s run a blinder here. Maybe the pace was the telling factor in his finishing position but he certainly put a few lengths between himself and Age of Aquarius up the finishing straight.
Black Bear Island & Gan Amhras both didn’t handle the track one bit. Very fitting that my 3 major ante-post bets (Perfect Truth included) all failed to handle the track. As for Montaff finishing last by 11 lengths, what did Channon think the press were expecting of him? Last by 20 lengths?
Crowded House apparently didn’t handle the track. Actually given a couple of weeks extra probably could have gotten a lot closer but I’m looking forward to see him over 10f.
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He’s pretty good, isn’t he?
I’m sure there are many who will claim that Golden Sword and Age Of Aquarius failed to set the decent gallop that may have been expected, and that that ultimately aided Sea The Stars, but the winner raced freely throughout the early stages and still had more than enough to stave off the attentions of the Ballydoyle batallion.
He’s a stunning animal to look at and one of the most impressive travellers I’ve ever seen – at no stage did I think he wasn’t going to win. But whilst I think he’s silenced those who doubted his ability to stay, I get the feeling that he could be something very special over ten furlongs. Obviously a mile is absolutely no problem for him given the way he cruised alongside Delegator at Newmarket, but that ability to sit off any sort of pace is going to make him extremely hard to beat.
I only hope he isn’t lost to stud at the end of the year.
Well he’s a slightly late foal for the Derby, April 6th, so he will improve from this, Equitrack. It’ll take an absolute beast to beat him in the Arc and given the shocking standard of older horses, I can’t see him possibly getting beaten in the Eclipse or Irish Champion (the route I’m pretty sure he’ll take).
I’m not so sure that Sea The Stars is the wonder horse people are claiming him to be. It is easy to get carried away after a Derby but the bare form doesn’t look great. I have him running to around 121 which is low for a Derby winner.
Seamie Heffernan (perhaps under orders I don’t know) rode totally the wrong race on Fame And Glory and I said so after about half a mile. There was a Guineas winner in the race what the hell was Heffernan doing racing behind Sea The Stars? Unless Sea The Stars stopped he had no chance he should’ve done what Jamie Spencer did aboard Sariska in the Oaks vs Rainbow View i.e. had Fame And Glory in front of the Guineas winner and kicked on early to get Sea The Stars at it a long way out instead he gave Sea The Stars a lead therefore leaving his horse to do the Guineas winner for pace. Crazy!!
The race wasn’t run at a good gallop, I really don’t know what O’Brien’s team were doing but they set the race up perfectly for Sea The Stars.
Sea The Stars should drop back to ten furlongs now the way he travelled he should’ve won further I think his stamina was stretched at twelve furlongs.
Fame And Glory has Irish Derby written all over him.
I don’t think they’re lying when they believed Rip Van Winkle was a potential superstar.
I hope he doesn’t becoming a trainer’s nightmare like US Ranger, but if he reopposes STS in the Coral-Eclipse I’ll be sure to back him.
I don’t think they’re lying when they believed Rip Van Winkle was a potential superstar.
I hope he doesn’t becoming a trainer’s nightmare like US Ranger, but if he reopposes STS in the Coral-Eclipse I’ll be sure to back him.
I think you’ll get poor very quickly backing Rip Van Winkle. The horse ran the same race as he did in the Guineas struggled for pace then ran on late looking a bit "unlucky". I don’t like horses like that they flatter to deceive and leave your wallet looking very thin.
if you think FAG was given a bad ride then what about Gan Amrhas?? Why the hell did Manning take a pull on him when he should have let the horse go on – he was always gonna get the trip and the horse just ended up being disappointed – I could see from about the 8 furlong point he was never going to be in the first 3..
Yes I am talking through my pocket but Manning is just not up to the job on the big occasion (yes he won last year but that was due to a good horse not a good jockey).
if you think FAG was given a bad ride then what about Gan Amrhas?? Why the hell did Manning take a pull on him when he should have let the horse go on – he was always gonna get the trip and the horse just ended up being disappointed – I could see from about the 8 furlong point he was never going to be in the first 3..
Yes I am talking through my pocket but Manning is just not up to the job on the big occasion (yes he won last year but that was due to a good horse not a good jockey).
Hmmm that’s very loud pocket talk. I backed Gan Amhras at 25s before the Guineas and have no complaints.
Bolger said: "The winner is a very nice horse and well done to John Oxx. Our fellow probably didn’t handle the track."
Manning added: "He was never comfortable on the track – he just didn’t act on it at all."
I certainly thought Black Bear Island didn’t handle the course at all well. Crowded House will appreciate being run over 10f, he can’t sustain his turn of foot for long enough over 12f I don’t think. A bit like Delegator over a mile perhaps.
The most impressive thing in the race for me is how well Sea The Stars quickened after getting smacked. He must have shot 1 1/2L clear of Fame and Glory almost instantly.
not that loud – I only put £2.50 EW on him!
Manning was arseing the horse about – maybe he didnt act on the track but he didnt give it a good ride IMO. If I’d been on him big style I wouldnt be a happy bunny
Gan Amhras was first off the bit and ridden along.
Bolger wasn’t unhappy, just took the result all in his stride.
PS. Ian, you can bet I will change my mind 336 times from now until the next time some of these horses return to the track.
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Any horse that wins a Guineas and a Derby has to be a bit special, but there were too many horses too close to him at the finish for him be labelled superstar, just yet. That 4 Coolmore representatives finished within a length of each other, to fill the next 4 places, confirms they had so many runners because none were outstanding.
One of the more pleasing aspects for me was that they (Coolmore) made such an arse of the pace. Despite the ominous and rather intense mid-track meeting of the whole clan before the race, their plans to engineer the race to suit their own ends blew up in their faces, and they were undone by a canny ride from their former employee, who proved wise enough to have none of it.
Maybe now we can get back to horses being run, in these top class races, purely on their merit?
Any horse that wins a Guineas and a Derby has to be a bit special, but there were too many horses too close to him at the finish for him be labelled superstar, just yet. That 4 Coolmore representatives finished within a length of each other, to fill the next 4 places, confirms they had so many runners because none were outstanding.
One of the more pleasing aspects for me was that they (Coolmore) made such an [expletive] of the pace. Despite the ominous and rather intense mid-track meeting of the whole clan before the race, their plans to engineer the race to suit their own ends blew up in their faces, and they were undone by a canny ride from their former employee, who proved wise enough to have none of it.
Maybe now we can get back to horses being run, in these top class races, purely on their merit?I agree that Ballydoyle made a mess of their tactics. The pace they set wasn’t strong enough. which wouldn’t have helped either Fame And Glory or Black Bear Island nor really Masterof thehorse. The only horse you could argue that it may have favoured is Rip Van Winkle.
Why Fame And Glory wasn’t ridden more prominantly given his breeding is a complete mystery. Surely they didn’t expect to beat a Guineas winner giving him a start?
In order to give themselves the best chance of winning the race they should’ve sacrificed one of their horse’s and made him set a furious pace. Instead they played right into Sea The Stars’ hooves.
Whether or not you agree with that (team tactics) morally is a different matter.
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