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From reading the report in yesterdays racing post it seems that Richard Hills seems fairly keen on riding Montaff, and Mick Channon seems to think he’s as good as youmzain. He apparently had an ankle problem in the spring which would explain why disappeared from Mickchannontv site and drifted for the derby, as well as being allowed to go off seemingly unfancied in the Lingfield trial, which Channon seemed to think would perhaps be coming too soon for him. Would love Montaff to go well here and think he looks the sort to come down the straight pretty strongly. However, with it being a decent year, there would be a few that the same could be said of, however, most are priced well short of this fellow…
If Freemantle is a non-runner, that doesn’t surprise me at all.
If the horse is a 10f horse it makes every sense to send him to the Prix du Jockey-Club, then Eclipse instead – particularly when Coolmore et al have several other horses for Epsom.
Looking like a smallish field now- 13 or 14? May mean you don’t need a horse ridden as prominently as normal.
I think this is a cracking derby. Thoroughly looking forward to it.
I have interests in Black Bear Island (12’s) and Gan Amhras (25’s). I haven’t had a lot on though as I think 90% of the field are capable of winning!
Ah really? Went through earlier, I think only 5 have a winning chance.
Black Bear Island
Fame and Glory
Gan Amhras
Masterofthehorse
Sea The StarsMick Kinane is apparently extremely confident about Sea The Stars staying but given the pace that the Ballydoyle pacemaker(s) will more than likely set, I’ll be very surprised if he gets the trip.
Masterofthehorse I think will be much better suited to the St. Leger and I expect to see him flying at the end. It’s a shame there’s no ante-post St. Leger market, would love to back him right now.
So there you have it, 3 left. I’m extremely confident about Perfect Truth in the Oaks and I have doubles going onto Black Bear Island + Gan Amhras. I won’t be backing Fame and Glory, although his prep reeks of an Aidan O’Brien Derby winner. My concern is that his form is very weak and also he ran in that appalling 10f Group 1 in France. AOB’s previous runners were Ciro + Ballingary and they were both poor.
Zarkava, I don’t think O’Brien is running pacemakers. They will go a good gallop but that will be what O’Brien wants and I think all of those he intends to run have a chance of some sort. Same applies to Sea the Stars, Gan Amhras, Montaff and, if Godolphins 3yo’s find some form, Kite Wood. South Easter’s form is also working out well.
There are a few without a chance but the majority of this field have a chance.
Probably 15l behind Fame And Glory.
Doesn’t matter the ground won’t come anywhere near soft.
Gan Amhras was trained with the 2000 Guineas as the aim, just cause Bolger is hyping him up for The Derby I would take no interest in, he played down New Approach to the moon last year, on form and visually he doesn’t do it for me.
2000 Guineas, Rip Van Winkle was staying on better and probably Mastercraftsman too, just cause 3rd, 4th and 5th made ground on 2nd doesn’t take away from the fact they made no ground what so ever on the winner who quickened at will, not one of the Guineas runners who will run in The Derby will beat Sea The Stars if we get fun in the sun, if I’d have to pick one who would it be Rip Van Winkle who you could tell looking at him was a bit far off from the others preperation wise and he should come on for that more than 3rd, I’m of the view the winner could be a superstar.
We will find out though next Saturday, it’s going to be a great Derby even though its a shame most of the horses belong to one trainer.
Red at the risk of offendeding you: Where on earth do you get these rediculous ideas from.
If Gan Ahmras needed soft ground Jim Bolger had like 100 chances to run him on soft last season he is trained in Ireland you know!
The horse won on Good to Firm was beaten when he got some cut and no way on Gods earth did Jim Bolger train him like the Guineas was the last race on earth.
Jim Bolger said. "You won’t see the best of Gan Ahmras until the Derby he needs a trip". "He will run in the guineas but it’s not his race". "He could run into a place and I will be delighted if he does"
If you don’t fancy the horse by all means say so but don’t post what is blatant garbage.
How on earth do you work out the horse nees soft?
Your post sying he was trained with the guines as his aim is absolute poppycock.
Jim Bolger isn’t trying to hype the horse up. Why on earth would he? He is syaing it as he sees it and would achieve nothing else but to make a complete idiot of himself if the horse runs a bad race..
FFs think before you post man……..theren are people watching you know:roll:
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No hard feelings here but your a being a bit of a hypocrite. You can’t call me on talking down on Gan Amhras chances when you slate Fame And Glory off after he beat your chosen selection.
Zarkava, I don’t think O’Brien is running pacemakers. They will go a good gallop but that will be what O’Brien wants and I think all of those he intends to run have a chance of some sort. Same applies to Sea the Stars, Gan Amhras, Montaff and, if Godolphins 3yo’s find some form, Kite Wood. South Easter’s form is also working out well.
There are a few without a chance but the majority of this field have a chance.
Well I think Golden Sword and Age of Aquarius are the ‘pacemakers’. Those 2 will ensure a good gallop for sure.
I doubt very much AOB would of sent fame and glory for the ballysax stakes letting him carry a 5b penalty if he wasnt high up in his pecking order, oxx was very keen on his horse for both races and both times he was beaten fair and square imo. with sts and masterofthehorse there from ties closely from the berefords stakes when oxx’s other horse was 3rd, sts has shown his well bein winning the guineas,while master should of won the chester vase,i think it pays to look at the form from that race,sometimes i think we can over look certain form, its like the maiden that bbi freemantle and sts all ran there 1st races in they finished 2nd 3rd and 4th,and it was intresting that in the dante bbi confirmed the placing with freemantle and for me i think bbi will finish in front of sts no matter where they finish. in the 2007 guineas that cockney rebel won, eagle mountain finish 5th beaten around half a length,the same distance roughly that cockney beat him in there only previous meeting at doncaster as 2yr olds
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The vusual clues to which is a real Derby horse are pretty thin on the gound.
The only horse I would put my trust in, without question, to run a good race is Gan Amhras.
Nothing flash about him he’s just a genuine horse with a genuine chance.
All of the rest have huge question marks against them in one way or the other.
If there is going to be a shock it could come via Frankie on Kite Wood who is much better than his run behind BBI.
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Is Kite Wood better than his Dante run, Fist?
I’m not so sure. The form of his Ascot win isn’t great – Taameer was mullered on his comeback, Four Winds won only a fair race last time, Whispering Angel hasn’t been seen since (but had run seemingly poorly on his previous outing) and Akhenaten is now plying his trade over six furlongs – and whether or not he needed his reappearance I still have doubts as to how well he’ll stay the trip.
Just out of interest, does anyone know why Goolphin chose to leave the horse in Newmarket over the winter, rather than take him to Dubai?
I still can’t see past Sea The Stars, though appreciate that Rip Van Winkle was staying on well in the Guineas and could, conceivably, show marked improvement for the step up in trip.
I expect to be in a minority here but I think this isn’t the most difficult Derby puzzle to solve. Non of the British horses are good enough that much I’m confident of South Easter will possibly prove to be the best of them.
Of the Irish horses you have Aiden O’Briens vs Gan Amhras and Sea The Stars. Gan Amhras I can’t see being good enough at group one level so it leaves O’Brien vs Sea The Stars.
O’Brien is no mug. He has six horses likely to run and he knows John Oxx’s horse is a Guineas winner so he will ensure one or two of his horses set a strong pace from the outset given that the liklihood is that his market leader Fame And Glory and Black Bear Island and Age Of Aquarius all will turn out to be better over a mile and a half than they have been at shorter trips. Whichever way you look at it there IS a doubt over Sea The Stars stamina and he’s not going to get it his own way here O’Brien is going to make sure his stamina is tested to the very limit. Personally I think he’ll stay to a degree but just not enough.
That leaves O’Brien’s horses. Find the best of his and you find the most likely Derby winner. It has to be Fame And Glory – Ballysax and Derrinstown route as in High Chapparal and Galileo, improving and best effort last time. Certain to love the trip and the fast pace. On ratings he is on course to win the Derby with expected natural improvement for race conditions.
I may be wrong it often happens lol but as far as Derby’s go I’m pretty confident about this one.
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I do like the horse and he looked like a horse who was a bit short of work rather than a horse who didn’t stay in the Dante.
I’m manily going by what I have read mate. Frankie seems to think he’s come on a helluva lot since. It doesn’t surprise me to hear that as they paid 6 million for him and they only have one race in mind.
If he has com on as much as they claim he could well improve past the likes of Black Bear Island which might just put him in the picture.
25/1 ew will be popular with those looking to back an outsider with Frankie on board and they might not go home empty handed.
I didn’t get the impression that the vibes coming from Godolphin were all that encouraging about Kite Wood, although they did say he would improve from his last run. I would love to see Sea the Stars win. If I go back to the start of the season and return to my ‘not particularly interested in flat racing but will watch it anyway’ frame of mind,the name that I loved [and would have had a bet on for the name itself] was Black Bear Island. Surely if Aiden O’Brien had a world beater, he wouldn’t be running so many horses? I’ve had my tiny ew bets on Montaff and South Easter, and I can’t wait for next Saturday….I’ve never been so fascinated by the race before, and, it may be the sunshine that’s making me think it but, I really wish I was going to Epsom next week.
I didn’t get the impression that the vibes coming from Godolphin were all that encouraging about Kite Wood, although they did say he would improve from his last run. I would love to see Sea the Stars win. If I go back to the start of the season and return to my ‘not particularly interested in flat racing but will watch it anyway’ frame of mind,the name that I loved [and would have had a bet on for the name itself] was Black Bear Island.
Surely if Aiden O’Brien had a world beater, he wouldn’t be running so many horses?
I’ve had my tiny ew bets on Montaff and South Easter, and I can’t wait for next Saturday….I’ve never been so fascinated by the race before, and, it may be the sunshine that’s making me think it but, I really wish I was going to Epsom next week.
The thing is Aiden has so many good horses if he doesn’t run them in the Derby where does he run them? Sure he can send one to France or Royal Ascot but he can do that and still have several spares.
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