The Derby 2009

[MDeering]

I’ve been thinking about Gan Amhras since my last post, and I want to put forward a question of curiosity more than anything.

Given his half-length finish behind 7F/miler Soul City in the Goffs Million (with Intense Focus a length behind), and his extremely good 2 1/4 length third in a good-to-firm 2,000 Guineas on seasonal debut – is this a potential top-class middle-distance horse or maybe … just maybe he won’t stay 1m4f?

[Himself]

Interesting to hear John Oxx’s view that his Sea The Stars only has a 50/50 chance of seeing out the Derby trip.

Added to the fact that only one other 2,000 Guineas winner since Nijinsky has gone on to Epsom glory, it hardly inspires much confidence in his chances.

I take the view that Sea The Stars wont stay – although I am more than prepared to end up with a large dollop of egg on my face.

Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

[Bulwark]

I’m in agreement Himself, however I think Mr Oxx would like to see a bit of gd-fm in the going description, on that surface, it would be hard to say whwther he’d stay or not, but his chances would be greatly enhanced.

Myles, I too have my reservations about Gan Amhras staying, there is the possibility that he may just be pure class, but I wouldnt like to go to epsom with just him backed, as if he empties out with two furlongs to go I’d be completely gutted. I have him backed but there is always the added possibility that Bolger could pull him out of the race.

[seabird]

Is there a doubt about Gan Amhras’s stamina?

By Galileo out of a Darshaan mare suggests that his optimum may be over even further.

Colin

[RedRiot]

Is there a doubt about Gan Amhras’s stamina?

By Galileo out of a Darshaan mare suggests that his optimum may be over even further.

Colin

If you look at the dam line only there would be some doubt, they were all milers and the dam failed to get 1m4f when tested there.

[carvillshill]

I’m a layer of Sea The stars and Rip Van Winkle on stamina grounds. I’m neutral about Fame and Glory as I think the form is questionable- don’t mind if he wins at 7/2 or so. I’ve backed Freemantle, but recent weakness in the market worries me. I’m about to back Black Bear Island at 8-1 NRNB guaranteed price. I’m fairly sure the Dante will turn out to be the best Derby trial- just because New Approach won last year doesn’t change the Guineas ordinary record of throwing up recent Derby winners.

[MDeering]

Colin, there’s no doubting the pedigree on face value almost guarantees Gan Amhras will stay 1m4f – but I’m basing my curiosity on his performances so far.

Would a genuine 1m4f who’s likely to stay even further finish so close in the 2,000 Guineas on a fast track when fresh?

This might make for a superb Coral-Eclipse, however.

[RedRiot]

Don’t want to seem harsh on Gan Amhras but he was in my view primarily aimed for the 2000 Guineas, the way he looked hard fit before hand more so than probably any other horse in the race.

I think people have missed a lot on the pedigree side of this colt he is not stoutly bred for me, he has the same chance to stay as Sea The Stars in my opinion and the class you would pick Sea The Stars to him on most occasions. The entries he has looks like he was set up for the 1m campaign, but Bolger has no other alternative to send to Epsom.

To me he is not in the same class as Teofilo or New Approach and is quite a bit of that standard. I’d be surprised if me makes a place.

In saying that it is probably Bolger’s best 3y/o.

[moehat]

I’m going to have an ew on Montaff based purely on the fact that he seems to be a definate runner.

[Arsene Abitbol]

Fame and Glory will stay because I think he’ll win. In terms of ability I believe he’s the spitting image of his father Montjeu. You’re very welcomed to read my article on my blog and find out why I BELIEVE THAT: http://www.europeanhorseracing.blogspot.com

Happy punting to you all.

[Bulwark]

I’m going to have an ew on Montaff based purely on the fact that he seems to be a definate runner.

Good on you Moe, heres hoping…

[MDeering]

Fame and Glory will stay because I think he’ll win. In terms of ability I believe he’s the spitting image of his father Montjeu. You’re very welcomed to read my article on my blog and find out why I BELIEVE THAT: http://www.europeanhorseracing.blogspot.com

Happy punting to you all.

Yeah, you don’t have an opinion at all – you’re just trying to flog your blog website.

[Gerald]

Arsene

I am disappointed that you have sent me a PM, saying you are interested in what I will be posting about STS and RVW, and then referring me to your blog.

I read your blog yesterday, and then posted on your Daily Lays & Plays thread. I’d have thought that you would have checked your thread out.

I am just posting this, in case you have been sending PMs to all and sundry.

Gerald

[The Ante-Post King]

As long as night follows day Gan Amrhas will stay 11/2m! Sea the Stars
on the other hand i have my doubts! Even at 8/1 i would strongly recommend Gan Amrhas as a cert for a place! Closely followed by Black bear island and Masterofthehorse! Funny i havent changed my mind since
i first put the three up on this thread at 50, 40 and 36, 6 months ago! TAPK talks, TAPK listens!

[Gerald]

Read something last night on the betfair forum about mitachondrial dna. There was also a mention of speed coming from the sire and stamina from the dam. My username is Me2, but don’t bother looking for my postings, because I’ve only ever made half-a-dozen or so.

Anyway, I thought I’d have a look at the Conduit Mare Profiles. This is pretty similar to Dosage, except it is only looking at the female influences. I’m hoping that as it was worked out more recently, it doesn’t have so many errors in it at the moment.

These are the figures for the past 19 Derby winners. I’ve arranged them by the Index number. (Lowest stoutest, highest speediest.)

Conduit Mare Profile Speed [/color:1b21m4m0] Stamina [/color:1b21m4m0] Index Tr[/color:1b21m4m0]ia[/color:1b21m4m0]ds[/color:1b21m4m0]
2 3 3 12 4 5 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.43 8 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 19 [/color:1b21m4m0] Dr Devious
2 6 2 8 8 8 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.46 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] Quest For Fame
2 6 4 11 5 8 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.56 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 21 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] Kris Kin
4 6 4 7 9 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.62 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] Galileo
2 8 3 11 5 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.63 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 22 [/color:1b21m4m0] 19 [/color:1b21m4m0] North Light
4 5 1 8 6 9 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.67 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] Sinndar
3 6 3 11 4 9 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.68 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] Authorized
1 9 2 7 5 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.68 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] High Rise
6 4 6 7 9 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.71 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 22 [/color:1b21m4m0] New Approach
2 8 4 8 5 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.73 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] Sir Percy
5 5 4 7 7 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.76 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] Oath
6 3 5 11 5 9 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.77 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 19 [/color:1b21m4m0] 21 [/color:1b21m4m0] Generous
6 4 5 5 8 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.81 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] Shaamit
6 2 2 11 3 8 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.84 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] Commander in Chief
5 7 1 6 7 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.86 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] Motivator
4 7 2 11 3 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.89 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] Lammtarra
5 7 4 6 5 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 1.05 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] High Chaparral
6 5 5 6 4 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 1.16 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] Benny The Dip
9 4 4 8 4 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 1.3 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] Erhaab

13 out of the 19 have an index between 0.60 and 0.90, and the Median is 0.73

Here are the figures for the 20 horses still left in.

Conduit Mare Profile Speed [/color:1b21m4m0] Stamina [/color:1b21m4m0] Index Tr[/color:1b21m4m0]ia[/color:1b21m4m0]ds[/color:1b21m4m0]

3 6 4 8 9 9 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.53 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 21 [/color:1b21m4m0] Rip Van Winkle
4 5 3 8 9 9 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.55 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] Sea The Stars
4 6 3 9 9 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.57 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 21 [/color:1b21m4m0] South Easter
4 6 5 8 9 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.61 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 19 [/color:1b21m4m0] 22 [/color:1b21m4m0] Gan Amhras
5 5 2 10 7 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.65 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 19 [/color:1b21m4m0] Age Of Aquarius
2 5 5 8 4 7 [/color:1b21m4m0] 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.67 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] Fame And Glory
2 7 3 12 3 9 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.67 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 22 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] Fergus McIver
3 6 6 5 8 9 [/color:1b21m4m0] 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.67 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 19 [/color:1b21m4m0] Kite Wood
5 6 4 9 8 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.69 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 19 [/color:1b21m4m0] 21 [/color:1b21m4m0] Loch Long
6 5 0 8 7 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.77 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] Crowded House
5 5 2 11 4 10 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.81 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] Montaff
4 7 3 9 5 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.82 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 19 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] Debussy
5 6 7 5 8 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.82 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] Freemantle
4 9 2 9 6 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.83 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] Johann Zoffany
5 10 3 7 8 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.88 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] Golden Sword
5 7 3 10 4 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.95 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] Father Time
6 5 5 4 7 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 0.96 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] Malibu Bay
7 7 4 9 6 14 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] 1 18 [/color:1b21m4m0] 20 [/color:1b21m4m0] 19 [/color:1b21m4m0] Toraidhe
5 7 4 6 5 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 11 [/color:1b21m4m0] 1.05 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 15 [/color:1b21m4m0] Black Bear Island
4 9 4 8 4 13 [/color:1b21m4m0] 12 [/color:1b21m4m0] 1.05 17 [/color:1b21m4m0] 21 [/color:1b21m4m0] 16 [/color:1b21m4m0] Masterofthehorse

As you can see, just looking at the female influence, Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle are the two stoutest.

I know the shortcomings of Dosage, and the Conduit Mare Profiles will have similar shortcomings. However, someone has done a lot of work to try to quantify this, and I’m assuming that it must be fairly close to the mark.

[Cav]

Here are my stamina index’s for the 20 that remain. 9 the last 11 Derbys have been won by a horse with an index of 20 or more. Only one with an index of 18 which was New Approach last year, in what was a slowly run race. This years renewal looks like being an undoubted stamina test. Interesting to see, Rip Van Winkle and Sea The Stars towards the bottom of the list…

Age Of Aquarius ….. 21
Black Bear Island ….. 21
Fame And Glory ….. 21
Masterofthehorse ….. 21
Crowded House ….. 20
Gan Amhras ….. 20
Loch Long ….. 20
Montaff ….. 20
Father Time ….. 19
Fergus McIver ….. 19
Johann Zoffany ….. 19
Kite Wood ….. 19
South Easter ….. 19
Freemantle ….. 18
Golden Sword ….. 18
Malibu Bay ….. 18
Rip Van Winkle ….. 18
Toraidhe ….. 18
Debussy ….. 17
Sea The Stars ….. 17
Haashed ….. 16

[Anonymous]

I’m getting more convinced by the minute Jim Bolger’s Gan Amhras is the horse they all have to beat. Nothing has show a great turn of foot and he looks a very tough colt to me.

I already backed RVW but I’m having the same stake on Gan Amhras while there is still some 9/1 about.

There might be a great horse come out of this Derby but going into it I simply can’t see anything really outstanding.

[Author]

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