The Derby 2009

[Zarkava]

I seem to remember Soumillon having his first ever ride on the horse that day and I recall him getting injured in the race, hence he missed the Arc and it was touch-and-go whether he’d run in the BC Turf too.

I fully agree that 3yos should mix with the 4yos, but I believe that middle-distance runners should wait for the King George, Juddmonte, Irish Champion, Champion + BC Turf/Classic rather than dropping down for the Eclipse immediately.

[Gerald]

Going Derby, Eclipse and then King George seems very, very, tough.

[Anonymous]

Zarkava

I’d doubt that your trend has anything to do with the respective courses, or the time between races, (4 weeks should be ample time for all but the most fragile to race again).
3 of your 4 examples were probably down to the horses not being made enough use of over the shorter trip, (Tobougg ran much better in 2 subsequent 10f gp1’s for being ridden up with the pace). Sakhee may have been injured, as he didn’t see a racetrack again for 12 months.

Had Authorized or Motivator – or both – won as they should have, then that would paint a very different picture for this particular trend, which is why I raised the query in the first place.

[andyod]

I just read the RP on the coral eclipse. Sounds like an explanation from hell. Why would Aidan use two pacemakers? Why did they not do their job?Did they both decide they did not want to be pacemakers? Why did Frankie not follow his pacemaker.Was Motivators pacemaker in to disrupt Aidans plans and not visa versa? After all Frankie never used the pacemaker provided ostensibly to help him.To me the story of Frankie and Joe is more interesting than the fiction of two pacemakers who refused to set the pace.

[Zarkava]

Zarkava

I’d doubt that your trend has anything to do with the respective courses, or the time between races, (4 weeks should be ample time for all but the most fragile to race again).

I agree that 4 weeks would be enough time, but I think the difference in track is fairly big.

3 of your 4 examples were probably down to the horses not being made enough use of over the shorter trip, (Tobougg ran much better in 2 subsequent 10f gp1’s for being ridden up with the pace)

. Sakhee may have been injured, as he didn’t see a racetrack again for 12 months.

Had Authorized or Motivator – or both – won as they should have, then that would paint a very different picture for this particular trend, which is why I raised the query in the first place.

Well then you’ve just raised another good point. The Eclipse is the first 10f Group 1 open to 3yos in the UK, therefore any middle-distance runners will be testing out their style of running over the trip for the first time. For 2000 Guineas runners, there won’t be much of a difference since they’ll have enough speed to come from miles off the pace.

[Bulwark]

I fully agree that 3yos should mix with the 4yos, but I believe that middle-distance runners should wait for the King George, Juddmonte, Irish Champion, Champion + BC Turf/Classic rather than dropping down for the Eclipse immediately

.

Like I said earlier it all depends on the horse and the opposition. If Rip Van Winkle (as a good example) fails to get home in the Derby then he is effectively stuck between two poles distance wise and will be crying out for the 1m2f.

Then bear in mind that (were he to go for the eclipse) he would be recieving 11lbs from what IMO I would believe to be inferior opposition at level weights. What would you do? Send him for the irish derby or the GPDP?

This is exactly what happened with Oratorio, he was crying out for 1m2f (although many, myself included had overlooked this) and went to sandown getting 11lbs from some weak looking older horses (about the same sort of level as last years race). The eclipse was the perfect race for him at that time in his career. Had Sir Percy remained uninjured I would have thought he would have been the perfect sort for the eclipse that year also. It all depends on the horse. If Fame And Glory won the derby however I wouldnt be in favour of him going anywhere near the eclipse though as IMO he’s not that sort of horse. It all depends on who is about when.

[Anonymous]

Andyod

It’s quite straightforward. They went hell for leather for the first 300 yards to take Authorized’s pacemaker clear of the pack, then slowed the race right down, to suit the questionable stamina of their main contender.
Frankie foolishly ignored his own pacemaker to keep tabs on his main rival, the same George Washington, thus also allowing Notnowcato to give him the slip on the other side of the course.
Far from the first or last time that Coolmore have used mutliple horses to orchestrate the pace in their favour, either.

[Anonymous]

2007 Eclipse.

Coolmore had George Washington

Up against the badly campaigned Derby winner Authorized.

I think the jockey Ryan Moore was the guest on the Morning Line, and intimated that he would be coming up the stands side.

edit: Getting a bit mixed up as regards being badly campaigned. Worst was Motivator. Also thought New Approach was badly campaigned. I’m getting a bit pissed off about Derby winners not running over 1m4f afterwards, apart from the Arc.

I agree that if they truly get 1m4f on any ground they should go for the King George and the Arc but not all horses that win the Derby are cut out for that route as they barely get the trip.

Zarkava is being somewhat unkind in saying all Derby horses are doomed and sighting Motivator and an unlucky Authorised who weren’t exactly Great Derby winners/horses. It depends on the horse and I could just as easily site Mill Reef and Nashwan and ask if they are good enough why not.

If for example either Rip Van Winkle or Sa the Stars had to win the Derby due to a clever ride and had just get the trip and no more where do you send him then? If there fit and well why not go to the Eclipse if it doesn’t look a hot race, especially if staying is an issue and the horses are unlikely to win an Arc or a King George.. The proximity of the two races is a worry but I don’t think that is the full reason Motivator and Authorized were beaten.

Anyway are there that many run in the Eclipse? I don’t think it’s really there to attract the winner of the same year’s Derby but it is an option.

I would agree if they moved it they might get a better race with some horses who never stayed at Epsom running in it. Obviously they don’t think it’s worth the hassle or they would have moved it by now.

[Zarkava]

Zarkava is being somewhat unkind in saying all Derby horses are doomed and sighting Motivator and an unlucky Authorised who weren’t exactly Great Derby winners/horses. It depends on the horse and I could just as easily site Mill Reef and Nashwan and ask if they are good enough why not.

Oh I’m being horribly unkind, no doubt about that, but I think you need to be when doing trends.

But also, from a value perspective, if you were backing all the hotpot favs who finished 1st-3rd in the Derby, you’d be way, way down.

[Gerald]

Fist,

I thought at the time that Motivator and Authorised were good Derby winners, but we’ll leave that to one side.

I agree about Sea The Stars going for the Eclipse, and don’t see why he should be twice the price of RVW for the Eclipse. Surely after the Derby, Sea The Stars either runs in the Eclipse, or has a mid-season break? I can’t work out what another alternative would be. St James’s Palace Stakes? Because of the stamina doubts, I’m automatically ruling out the Irish Derby.

Gerald

[Anonymous]

No such thing as abad Derby winner Grerald but they achived very little afterwards is what I mean unlike Mill Reef e.g.

Mind you if it was me I’d rather go where they went as it’s much more fun

Would depend on whether he won the Derby or not and if he did how impressively. If he won I would imagine the only way he would go for it was if it cut up badly and looked a weakish affair.

There probably isn’t an owner alive who would go there if they thought their horse was good enough to win the King George and the Arc. Going to the Eclipse as well would most likely be too much to ask.

It could be the bookies are of the opinion Rip Van Winkle is the least likely to stay the trip between the two hence his shorter price.

With Gan Ahras in the race I think whatever beats him will have to stay every single yard of the trip and whatever beats him wins…if anything.

I’ve backed RVW myself but I am depending on Murtagh giving him a masterful ride to get the trip and swoop late Sir Ivor style.

I wouldn’t be backing either in the Eclipse AP though as if they have a hard race in defeat most likely they wont turn up anyway.

[Bulwark]

I think it may have to do with the fact that Oxx has made no mention of sending Sea The Stars to the eclipse, where it would appear logical for AOB to send RVW there, as he has done thast before…

[Gerald]

Yes, but AOB might send Freemantle instead for the Eclipse.

[The Ante-Post King]

Going Derby, Eclipse and then King George seems very, very, tough.

Unless of course you are Dancing Brave Gerald!

[MDeering]

All of this Coolmore kerfuffle and Oxx essentially confirming STS won’t legitimately stay 1m4f, I think this clears the path for Gan Amhras.

Ticks all the boxes: for a horse who is bred to stay, finishing third in the 2,000 Guineas on seasonal reappearance indicates a nice touch of class as well. It’s the perfect combination

unless

you argue the reason behind his close-up finish is the result of a poor Guineas class of ’09.

Otherwise, the best price of 9/1 is remarkably good.

[Zarkava]

Yup, totally agree. Was lucky enough to get the last of the 25s after he was declared for the Guineas, he’s the horse on my trends and I’d be shocked to see him unplaced. I’ve got Black Bear Island between 50s and 20s, so I’m fairly certain I’ve got the winner between those 2. I’d win about £60 less on Gan but at least the trends would hold up .

[Gerald]

I’ll post something after work today that people will hopefully find amusing and interesting – it will show that Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle are the two most stoutest horses in the Derby field.

[Author]

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